Stormy world of energy has a clear forecaster

Houston engineer develops reputation for accuracy over the long haul

Houston was rocking and rolling in 1980, with oil at $40 a barrel and some people in the industry predicting it would soar to $100.

One of the few dissenting voices, Henry Groppe Jr., forecasted that by 1985 oil would fall to $15.

“This guy’s a nut,” Houston energy analyst Matt Simmons recalled an oil executive telling him then. “He ought to be locked up in a straitjacket.”

The comment made Simmons laugh because, he said, Groppe is exceptionally calm and gracious.