Shrinking oilfields alarm observers

Almost a year ago, this column reported the conceivable implosion of Mexico’s Cantarell Oilfield, second largest in the world. This prediction proved to be correct as Cantarell lost a fifth of its production from January 2006 through February 2007. This meant a loss of 400,000 daily barrels of production from this field, dropping from two million daily barrels to 1.6 million during this time period.

If this shrinkage continues as expected, Cantarell will be down to 1.2 million daily barrels by 2010, and a possible extinction within a few years thereafter.


This event alone could prove catastrophic to Mexico’s economy, which depends on oil exports to fund 40 percent of its prolific government expenditures. Even worse, this turn of events would foreclose a critical import source for the U.S. and could turn previously oil-rich Mexico into a net importer. Mexican/American border violations would be increasingly significant under such circumstances.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, is facing similar problems in its huge Ghawar oil field, as reported in our column earlier this year. In the case of Ghawar, the massive 5.6 million barrels shipped every day is expected to revert to 5 million daily barrels by 2010. Despite Saudi protestations to the contrary, Riyadh’s four other giant fields are also expected to be on a precipitous decline.

The Desert Sun