Separatism would put Scotland over a barrel

‘On yer bike, Jock!’ That is the trenchant message from 59% of English voters to their Scottish partners of three centuries in the Union, if a recent ICM poll is to be believed. It recorded that percentage of respondents south of the Border wishing to see Scotland independent. That is higher than the support for separatism in Scotland.

The economic case for separatism stands or falls on oil income. So, how much of the North Sea oil would an independent Scotland own? Expert opinion differs. Some Whitehall sources have claimed it might be as little as 30%, due to the north-eastwards tilt of the Scottish Border, from the Solway to north of Berwick, extended into the North Sea, subject to international law. A more plausible analysis based on the principle of equidistance, employed by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), might allocate Scotland 90%.
It would not matter. While economists are right to point to the volatile nature of oil prices as an unsuitable base for a national economy, a more potent objection is the declining nature of this asset. North Sea oil production peaked in 1999-2000 at around six million barrels; production is projected to fall to around 35% of that total sometime between 2010-2020.

Scotsman