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Scientific Models and Myths: What Is the Difference?
Most people seem to think, “The difference between models and myths is that models are scientific, and myths are the conjectures of primitive people who do not have access to scientific thinking and computers. With scientific models, we have moved far beyond myths.” It seems to me that the truth is quite different from this.
History shows a repeated pattern of overshoot and collapse. William Catton wrote about this issue in his highly acclaimed 1980 book, Overshoot.
Figure 1. Depiction of Overshoot and Collapse by Paul Chefurka
What politicians, economists, and academic book publishers would like us to believe is that the world is full of limitless possibilities. World population can continue to rise. World leaders are in charge. Our big problem, if we believe today’s models, is that humans are consuming fossil fuel at too high a rate. If we cannot quickly transition to a low carbon economy, perhaps based on wind, solar and hydroelectric, the climate will change uncontrollably. The problem will then be all our fault. The story, supposedly based on scientific models, has almost become a new religion.
Recent Attempted Shifts to Wind, Solar and Hydroelectric Are Working Poorly
Of course, if we check to see what has happened when economies have actually attempted to switch to wind, water and hydroelectric, we see one bad outcome after another.
[1] Australia’s attempt to put renewable electricity on the grid has sent electricity prices skyrocketing and resulted in increased blackouts. It has been said that intermittent electricity has “wrecked the grid” in Australia.
[2] California, with all of its renewables, has badly neglected its grid, leading to many damaging wildfires. Renewables need disproportionately more long distance transmission, partly because they tend to be located away from population centers and partly because transmission must be scaled for peak use. It is evident that California has not been collecting a high enough price for electricity to cover the full cost of grid maintenance and upgrades.
Figure 2. California electricity consumption including amounts imported from out of state, based on EIA data. Amounts shown are average daily amounts, by month.
[3] The International Rivers Organization writes that Large Dams Just Aren’t Worth the Cost. Part of the problem is the huge number of people who must be moved from their ancestral homeland and their inability to adapt well to their new location. Part of the problem is the environmental damage caused by the dams. To make matters worse, a study of 245 large dams built between 1934 and 2007 showed that without even taking into account social and environmental impacts, the actual construction costs were too high to yield a positive return.
Developed economies have made hydroelectric power work adequately in areas with significant snow melt. At this point, evidence is lacking that large hydroelectric dams work well elsewhere. Significant variation in rainfall (year-to-year or seasonally) seems to be particularly problematic, because without fossil fuel backup, businesses cannot rely on year-around electricity supply.
The Pattern of Overshoot and Collapse Is Well-Established
Back in 1974, Henry Kissinger said in an interview:
I think of myself as a historian more than as a statesman. As a historian, you have to be conscious of the fact that every civilization that has ever existed has ultimately collapsed. [Emphasis added.]
History is a tale of efforts that failed, of aspirations that weren’t realized, of wishes that were fulfilled and then turned out to be different from what one expected. So, as a historian, one has to live with a sense of the inevitability of tragedy. As a statesman, one has to act on the assumption that problems must be solved.
Historians tend to define collapse more broadly than “the top level of government disappearing.” Collapse includes many ways of an economy failing. It includes losing at war, population decline because of epidemics, governments overthrown by internal dissent, and governments that cannot repay debt with interest, and failing for this reason.
A basic issue that often underlies collapse is falling average resources per person. These falling average resources per person can take several forms:
- Population rises, but land available for farming doesn’t rise.
- Mines and wells deplete, requiring more effort for extraction.
- Soil erodes or becomes polluted with salt, reducing crop yields.
One of the other issues is that as resources per capita become stretched, it becomes harder and harder to set aside a margin for a “rainy day” or a drought. Thus, weather or climate variations may push an economy over the edge, as resources per person become more stretched.
Scientific Models Too Often Prove Whatever the Grant Provider Wants Proven
It is incredibly difficult to figure out what the future will hold. Our experience is almost entirely with a growing economy. It is easy to accidentally build this past experience into a model of the future, even when we are trying to make realistic assumptions. For example, when making pension models in the early 1980s, actuaries would see interest rates of 10% and assume that interest rates could remain this high indefinitely.
The question of whether prices will rise to allow future energy extraction is another problematic area. If we believe standard economic theory, prices can be expected to rise when resources are in short supply. But if we look at Revelation 18: 11-17, we find that when Babylon collapsed, the problem was low prices and lack of demand. There were not even buyers for slaves, and these were the energy product of the day. The Great Depression of the 1930s showed a similar low-price pattern. Today’s economic model seems to need refinement, if it is to account for how prices really seem to behave in collapses.
If there is an issue that is difficult to evaluate in making a forecast, the easiest approach for researchers to take is to omit it. For example, the intermittency of wind and solar can effectively be left out by assuming that (a) the different types of intermittency will cancel out, or (b) intermittency will be inexpensive to fix or (c) intermittency will be handled by a different part of the research project.
To further complicate matters, researchers often find that their compensation is tied to their ability to get grants to fund their research. These research grants have been put together by organizations that are concerned about the future. These organizations are looking for research that will match their understanding of today’s problems and their proposed solutions for the future.
A person can guess how this arrangement tends to work out. Any researcher who points out endless problems, or says that the proposed solution is impossible, won’t get funding. To get funding, at least some partial solution must be provided along the lines outlined in the Request for Proposal, regardless of how unlikely the proposed solution is. Research showing that the grant-writer’s view of the future is not really correct is left to retired researchers and others willing to work for little compensation. All too often, published research tends to say whatever the groups funding the research studies want the studies to say.
Myths Are of Many Types; Many Are Aimed at Giving Good Advice
The fact that myths have survived through the ages lets us know that at least some people found the insights that they provided were worthwhile.
If an ancient people did not know how the earth and the people on it came into being, they would likely come up with a myth explaining the situation. Most of us today would not believe myths about Thor, for example, but (as far as we know), no one was being paid to put together stories about Thor and how powerful he was. The myths were stories that people found sufficiently useful and entertaining to pass along. In some sense, this background gives these stories more value than a paper written in order to obtain funds provided by a research grant.
Some myths relate to what types of activities by humans were desirable or undesirable. For example, the people in Uganda have traditional folklore about a moral monster that is used to teach children the dangers of craftiness and deceit. My sister who visited Uganda reported that where she visited, people believed that people who stole someone else’s crops were likely to get sick. Most of us wouldn’t think that this story was really right, but it has a moral purpose behind it. There are no doubt many myths of this type. They have been passed on because passing them on seemed to serve a purpose.
Clearly, which actions are desirable or undesirable changes over time. For example, Leviticus 19:19 and Deuteronomy 22:11 seem to condemn wearing fabrics that are a mix of linen and wool. Today, we use many fabrics that are mixes of two types of yarns. Perhaps there was a problem with different amounts of shrinkage. Today, our issues are different. Perhaps, myths associated with issues such as these need to be discarded, because they are not relevant any more.
How about myths of an afterlife? Things on earth don’t necessarily go well. The promise of a favorable afterlife has a definite appeal. Some people would even like a story in which people who don’t act in the desired manner are punished. Some religions seem to provide such an ending as well.
Follow a Religion Based on Scientific Models, or Based on Myth, or Neither?
Nature’s solutions and mankind’s solutions in a finite world both involve complexity, but the two types of complexity are very different.
Mankind’s solutions seem to involve more and more devices using an increased amount of resources and debt. The overhead of the system becomes greater and greater as the economy increasingly shifts toward robots and owners/overseers of the robots. The big problem that can be expected to develop comes from not having enough purchasers who can afford to purchase the end products created by this system. In fact, we seem to already be reaching an era of too much wage disparity and too much wealth disparity. Eventually, such a system can be expected to collapse under its own weight.
We can already see signs that wind and solar are not scalable to the extent that people would like them to be. Together, they currently comprise only 3% of the world’s energy supply. We need very large supplies of energy to provide food, housing, and transportation for 7.7 billion people.
Figure 3. World Energy Consumption by Fuel, based on data of 2019 BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
Regardless of what politicians would like proven, nature doesn’t move in a constant path upward. Instead, nature provides a self-organizing system of individual parts, none of which is permanent. Humans are temporary residents of this earth. Businesses are temporary, and the products they sell are constantly changing and adapting. Governments are temporary. Weather patterns are also temporary. Religions are constantly changing and adapting, and new ones are formed.
Nature’s way doesn’t seem to require much overhead. Over the long run, it seems to be much more permanent than mankind’s attempts at solutions. As the system changes, each replacement differs in random ways from previous systems of a particular type. The best adapted replacements survive, without the need for excessive overhead to the system.
We may or may not agree with the religions that have formed over the years in the self-organizing way that nature provides. The fact that religions have stayed around indicates that at least for some people, they continue to play a significant role. If nothing else, religious groups often provide social gatherings with others in the area. This provides an opportunity for friendship. In some cases, it will allow people to find potential marriage partners who are not closely related.
One of the roles of religions is to pass down “best practices.” These will change over time so some will need to be discarded and changed. For example, in some eras, it will be optimal for women to have several children. In others, it will make sense to have only one or two.
The book, Oneness: Great Principles Shared by All Religions by Jeffrey Moses, lists 64 principles shared by several religions. Of course, not all religions agree on all of these 64 principles. Instead, there seems to be a great deal of overlap in what religions of the world teach. Some sample truths include “The Golden Rule,” it is “Blessed to Forgive,” “Seek and Ye Shall Find,” and “There Are Many Paths to God.” This type of advice can be helpful for people.
People will differ on whether it makes sense to believe that there really is an afterlife. There may very well be; we can’t know for certain. At least this is better odds than the knowledge that all earthly civilizations have eventually failed.
I personally have found belonging to and attending an ELCA Lutheran Church to be helpful. I find its earthly benefits to be sufficient, whether or not there is an afterlife. I will, of course, be attending around Christmas time. I will also be getting together with family.
I recognize, too, that not everyone is interested in one of the traditional religions. Some would even like to believe that with our advanced science, we can now find a way around every problem that confronts us. Perhaps this time is different. Perhaps this time, world leaders, with their love for overhead-heavy solutions, will finally discover a solution that can produce long-term growth on a finite earth. Perhaps energy from fusion is around the corner. Wish! Wish!
My wish to you is that you have Happy Holidays, of whatever types you choose to celebrate!
Our Finite World » …by Gail Tverberg
77 Comments on "Scientific Models and Myths: What Is the Difference?"
Sissyfuss on Sat, 21st Dec 2019 7:07 pm
” There are many paths to god.” But there’s only one path to the compost pile.
dave thompson on Sat, 21st Dec 2019 10:17 pm
The many paths to the idea of the compost pile are laden and fraught with fear and loathing. All shall be with the meek as the brave overcome the soul, the weary come to the beast and the power hungry destroy them selves through hubris. We as enlightened ones are still as blinded by those that see nothing. It is spoken only that which is said. And the word be by cast of lots, upon the soil of truth whereupon deceit shall reign, until truth be found.
full woke supremacist muzzies jerk double rainbow all the way across the sky so intense whoa it begins to look like a triple rainbow triple rainbow all the way across the sky what does it mean WDIM WDIM oh god oh on Sat, 21st Dec 2019 11:10 pm
On This Day…
Dec 21, 2016: Raqa, Syria
Two Turks are made to walk like dogs
to their burning by the caliphate: 2 Killed
ht supertard glenn roberts thereligionofpeace
muzzie sabortage muzzie loving AA which harassed supertard big muzzie beard and got loved in the form of reporting as “union dispute” then muzzie convicted and got loved 1000x, muzzie got off free.
800 people are against muzzie akbar sayeed for using low english on whitey supertard john brady. whitey supertard committed suicide as a result. muzzie akbar is pioneer in introducing low english on infidels, this is consistent with mandate by muzzie to humiliate infidels.
800 people, chances are 400 are armed. when the global muzzies trial for crime against humanity convict – and it should. all those guns make quick work on guilty muzies.
right now tom, dick, harry sitting on the trigger with a set of mumble jumble ideas of how to put it to use. the result of global trial of muzzies for crime of insanity instruct tom, dick, harry what to do.
muzie throw party in malaysia to unite muzzies. only 1/3 attended. muzzie said attendandents are working against islam, not sure when muzzie gonna go inner struggle in one of these conferences because they’re against islam.
ht supertard fitzgerald
muzzie in australia with big grin is conivcted of using meat grinder to blow up plane. this muzzie should go directly to muzzie anti rape machine, muzzie amputation machine, muzzie hamster machine
full woke supremacist muzzies jerk double rainbow all the way across the sky so intense whoa it begins to look like a triple rainbow triple rainbow all the way across the sky what does it mean WDIM WDIM oh god oh on Sat, 21st Dec 2019 11:51 pm
police arrested 96 and destroyed ms-13
imagine 400 of those with weapons out of 800 who were against muzzie akbar sayeed could do to muzzies once they’re convicted of crime against humanity for 1400 years
imagine the level of coordination using social media and smartphones
full woke supremacist muzzies jerk double rainbow all the way across the sky so intense whoa it begins to look like a triple rainbow triple rainbow all the way across the sky what does it mean WDIM WDIM oh god oh on Sat, 21st Dec 2019 11:52 pm
imagine a world without muzzies if you can
imagine america without muzzie if you can
muzzie in australia refused to drive couple who won christmas ham.
muzzie in chelsea mass, refused to drive woman with dog. this info is burried deep in the intarweb
full woke supremacist muzzies jerk double rainbow all the way across the sky so intense whoa it begins to look like a triple rainbow triple rainbow all the way across the sky what does it mean WDIM WDIM oh god oh on Sat, 21st Dec 2019 11:54 pm
On This Day…
Dec 22, 2017: Harrisburg, PA, USA
A migrant from Egypt fires on Pennsylvania police: 0 Killed
ht supertard glenn roberts
imagine america without muzzie. imagine a real life muzzie purge, so fun
muzzie shot 6 cops in philadelphia, cops love muzzie 10000x
makati1 on Sun, 22nd Dec 2019 12:01 am
For your Sunday education: “America the Shrunken”. Another great article describing Amerika’s slid into the 3rd world.
“In May of 2014, Frank Bruni wrote an article for the NYT titled ‘America the Shrunken’, in which he detailed what he called “the downward arc of a diminished enterprise” that was the USA, quoting friends who claimed their children would live in a more impoverished America, that the reign was over and the slide was inevitable. The optimism and the arrogant swagger are mostly gone. He quoted Democratic strategist Doug Sosnik who wrote, “At the core of Americans’ anger and alienation is the belief that the American dream is no longer attainable.”” (1)
https://www.globalresearch.ca/america-shrunken/5698017
“I’ve said it again and I’ll say it now, the US is in terminal decline. The fact that they have to run trillion dollar deficits with 0% interest rates and QE infinity and can only get 2% growth proves my point. I give the US another 10 years before their giant debt based Ponzi scheme comes crashing down and the United States economically collapses like the Soviet Union and the US might even break up politically. I live here in the US, and I can tell you that there is absolutely no rule of law here, it’s corrupt to the bone. The politicians are bought by interest groups and the Caucasian population is dumb as a doorknob.”
Slip slidin’…pass the popcorn, the cliff is just ahead.
Theedrich on Sun, 22nd Dec 2019 3:02 am
The earth’s problem is lack of self-awareness, or “anasognosia,” as the medical profession calls it. We do not understand (or do not care about) what we are doing. For instance, corporations unrestrained by countervailing forces are undefeatable logic machines with the singular objective of maximizing shareholder profit, regardless of “externalities” such as the survival of the earth. In the political realm, the Leftist obsession of making all races and humans equal militates against biological evolution. In the military-industrial sphere, the megalomaniac drive to dominate all other countries through terror and subversion threatens to obliterate billions of years of evolution in an instant.
Moreover, the continued existence of civilization depends on the continuous teaching or transmission of its requisite knowledge to subsequent generations. The metastasizing urge to intellectual sloth, brain-poisoning narcotics, ignorance and educational stupidification in the West is antithetical to this existence.
All of these facts show the extreme peril we are now facing as a result of ignoring the larger picture and reason for our existence, which is to replicate and embody the cosmogonic logic underlying all life.
In other words, the continued existence of intelligent life on this planet depends on following the trajectory of evolution, not derailing it for temporary gain or interest.
Cloggie on Sun, 22nd Dec 2019 4:44 am
“For your Sunday education: “America the Shrunken”. Another great article describing Amerika’s slid into the 3rd world.”
Written by a Larry Romanoff, the name smells jewish, but if he is, he must be one of the “self-hating” variety. In his article he quotes unz.com, a holocaust denying jew. In his own articles he denounces the greatest intellectual property theft in history, that of the US vs 1945-Germany…
https://www.globalresearch.ca/greatest-ip-theft-operation-paperclip/5694232
…and he is a CW2-believer:
https://www.globalresearch.ca/next-american-revolution/5694309
But even this Larry type is too leftist to tell the truth about WHY America is going down the shitter [drumroll…]
If you import the third world, then you become the third world.
The demoralization of white America is the direct result of the general feeling that European-Americans have become aliens in what was once their own country. They feel like a football club that has been relegated to a lower league.
Just invest 10 minutes of your time to hear your average deplorable speak and you know what the problem is with America:
https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2019/12/10/the-microphone-for-american-deplorables/
And they already announce how they wish to see the America of the future:
“split up in hundreds of pieces”.
Expect this to happen (I bet 5 or more countries, not hundreds).
As an aside, one wonders if the British would have voted for Brexit if they would have realized that their beloved overlord soon no longer will exist… well, not in its present shape. But that is their problem. Anglo-Zionist supremacy is thoroughly over.
One can only hope that the dismemberment of the US will proceed just as peaceful as did the USSR (in 15 ethnic pieces). Don’t hold your breath. Directly after the death of Stalin, the USSR begin to throw out the jews, most went to Israel, that now consists of more than half of “Russians”. In the case of the US, the jews are still in the building and it is unlikely they will give up on their last bastion without a fight. #CW2
For continental Europe the prospects couldn’t be better. I expect a change of the guard, along the lines as happened in Eastern Europe in 1989. The media and politics will be cleansed of multicultists and diversity mongers, words like “racist” and “xenophobe” will lose their charge and will be dropped, just like after 1989 nobody used the word “class enemy” any more.
The USSR and USA, two fast travelling meteors that evaporated in the atmosphere, never to be heard of again.
Bye-bye 20th century.
https://www.amazon.com/Jewish-Century-New-Yuri-Slezkine/dp/0691192820/ref=sr_1_1
Cloggie on Sun, 22nd Dec 2019 5:08 am
Huge lithium find in Mexico, largest in the world:
https://southfront.org/all-sights-on-mexico-as-it-discovers-worlds-largest-lithium-deposit/
Boost for battery industry and renewable energy transition.
Sorry folks.lol
Davy on Sun, 22nd Dec 2019 5:37 am
“We Live In Hysteric Times: What Trump’s Impeachment Really Means”
https://tinyurl.com/tbh92d5 Zero hedge
“America is a corpse being consumed by maggots. Liberals are rooting for the maggots. Conservatives are rooting for the corpse.”
JuanP is stupid on Sun, 22nd Dec 2019 5:41 am
Folks at least stupid’s trolling causes him to check in to zero hedge and get educated. Do you realize he is a high school drop out?
this is from stupid:
Davy said “We Live In Hysteric Times: What Trump’s Imp…
Davy on Sun, 22nd Dec 2019 5:55 am
“Huge lithium find in Mexico, largest in the world”
Great find cloggo. That is a big boost for NA I am surprised you referenced it.
Sissyfuss on Sun, 22nd Dec 2019 8:10 am
Theedy, continued existence of intelligent life on this planet must first begin. Humans have proven as a species that their greed nullifies their ability to acquire wisdom over their clever but suicidal machinations. After Gaia wipes the slate clean perhaps in 10 million years, after the Earth has been scoured clean of us and our pollution, a new form of being will emerge that doesn’t have his head up his arse.
Cloggie on Sun, 22nd Dec 2019 8:58 am
“Great find cloggo. That is a big boost for NA I am surprised you referenced it.”
The details and the Lithium-numbers world-wide:
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2019/12/22/large-lithium-deposits-in-sonora-mexico/
#1 is Mexico
#2 is Nevada (read: Mexico “after the break”)
The rest is in Australia and in Euro-friendly Quebec.
Oh and talking about “North-America”…
The operation seems to be British with the Chinese buying themselves in, nice opportunity to dump dollars without anybody noticing it:
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/07/01/ganfeng-lithium-wagers-28m-on-sonora-lithium-mine-in-mexico/
P.S. you do know that Mexico is not part of the US, right? Realistically, the US is more a part of Mexico.
That’s what you get if you embrace capitalism without restriction as the highest value there is and spend your free time with “racism!” and “natzi!” shouting.
Global Exchange on Sun, 22nd Dec 2019 10:35 am
The US will shovel its massive cock up Mexico’s brown arse and that bitch will gladly hand over the lithium. The American Way of Life will not be interupted.
Cloggie on Sun, 22nd Dec 2019 10:40 am
Exactly, like happened in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Venezuela.
JuanP on Sun, 22nd Dec 2019 10:46 am
Did anyone actually read this thing to its end? I couldn’t. But, myths are OK. People need them, so I don’t mind them. If there were any chance of saving our species, though, we would need to build a whole new mythology to make it through the necessary changes.
Trump 2020! Gabbard 2020!
Robert Inget on Sun, 22nd Dec 2019 10:59 am
IEA
@IEA
·
Dec 15
Our December oil market report is out now:
• Global oil demand increased 900 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19
• Nearly 3/4 of the growth occurred in China
• Our 2019 & 2020 global demand growth forecasts remain unchanged
Read more https://iea.li/2RV30k0
Going into 2020 expect, as does IEA, EIA, another
one point one increase.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/272502/global-oil-demand-by-region/
that’s 101.6 Million barrels p/d .
So, when some scribe writes “the world is awash with oil” it’s true. How the fuck could we supply
that sort of demand w/o covering an entire planet?
Davy to JuanPee on Sun, 22nd Dec 2019 11:00 am
Definitely not any mythology you have dreamt up, lunatic.
More DavySkum Childish ID Theft on Sun, 22nd Dec 2019 11:01 am
JuanP on Sun, 22nd Dec 2019 10:46 am
Davy on Sun, 22nd Dec 2019 11:05 am
GE. Mexico is takin over the uS. Not the other way round. There takin back what was always there’s.
stupid
Cloggie on Sun, 22nd Dec 2019 11:11 am
“So, when some scribe writes “the world is awash with oil” it’s true. How the fuck could we supply that sort of demand w/o covering an entire planet?”
I came here in January 2012 (after peakoil.nl closed down, an ominous sign) in the unshakable belief that by 2020 (that is next month), the industrial party would be over and we were all waiting in huge lines before gas stations in the hope to score a gallon or two.
Hahaha!
https://www.amazon.com/Partys-Over-Fate-Industrial-Societies/dp/0865715297/ref=sr_1_fkmr0_1
Heinberg and ASPO have a lot to answer for! The vision was grandiose, but in hindsight, a soap bubble.
Rumors have it that some peak oil soldiers are still holding out in backwaters like the Ozarks, fighting a rearguard battle, but the rest of the world has moved on.
In 2020 we know that there is too much combustible matter for own good, not too little.
Duncan Idaho on Sun, 22nd Dec 2019 11:16 am
“Enjoy while you can, being mindful to not increase your contributions to the problems (e.g. consumerist living). If you are so inclined (and young enough) join Extinction Rebellion, go out and shut down traffic, get arrested at a protest. It might be fun.”
JaunP is stupid on Sun, 22nd Dec 2019 11:29 am
When I discipline stupid he does ID theft. LMFAO
This is from stupid:
Davy said GE. Mexico is takin over the uS. Not the other way…
More DavySkum Childish ID Theft said JuanP on Sun, 22nd Dec 2019 10:46 am
JuanP is stupid on Sun, 22nd Dec 2019 11:31 am
widdle stupid is upset.
This is from stupid:
Davy to JuanP said I gots to admit though Juanpee. People can live in…
Davy on Sun, 22nd Dec 2019 11:33 am
“Rumors have it that some peak oil soldiers are still holding out in backwaters like the Ozarks, fighting a rearguard battle, but the rest of the world has moved on.”
cloggo, I am way past peak oil but it is still relevant. got it??
JuanP is stupid on Sun, 22nd Dec 2019 11:52 am
Widdle want his mommy
This is form stupid:
cloggo, I am way past peak……
Cloggie on Sun, 22nd Dec 2019 12:16 pm
“cloggo, I am way past peak oil but it is still relevant. got it??”
No, I don’t and neither do you, otherwise you wouldn’t have launched that smokescreen sentence.
Explain how in 2020, peak conventional oil is relevant for anything?
The sensationalist ASPO-cult claimed by 2005 that the world would be running out oil soon. Nothing like that happened:
https://ourworldindata.org/exports/global-fossil-fuel-consumption_v2_850x600.svg
Meanwhile, in Europe renewable capacity constitutes 90% of all new-installed power-generation, offering a relief on consumption of fossil fuel. China and to a lesser extent the US, same story.
Davy on Sun, 22nd Dec 2019 12:21 pm
Like I says cloggo.
I am way past peak. But it’s still relevant.
got it??!???
Cloggie on Sun, 22nd Dec 2019 12:22 pm
The more you look, the more you find.
Potentially large Lithium deposits in the debris of 90 years of borates-mining in the Mojave desert. Could become the largest mine in the US and reduce dependence on China.
https://nl.express.live/rio-tinto-vindt-belangrijke-lithium-voorraden-in-mojave-woestijn/
The price of Llithium-carbonate has halved over the past 18 months, which is extremely good news for consumers interested in e-driving:
https://www.metalbulletin.com/LITHIUM-PRICES-UPDATE.html
Duncan Idaho on Sun, 22nd Dec 2019 12:49 pm
Hint
Lithium ion was first commercialized in the early 1990’s by the Japanese.
It has been a while comrades.
JuanP is stupid on Sun, 22nd Dec 2019 1:04 pm
stupid is mad as hell. LMFAO
This is from stupid:
Davy said Like I says cloggo. I am way past peak. But it’s s…
JuanP is stupid said Widdle want his mommy This is form stupid: cloggo,…
REAL Green said Davys write JuanP is stupid.
Davy on Sun, 22nd Dec 2019 1:11 pm
“Explain how in 2020, peak conventional oil is relevant for anything?”
cloggo, explain the penetration of renewables into global primary energy. Show me profitability of unconventionals these days.
renewables are a techno fantasy
case closed
Davy on Sun, 22nd Dec 2019 2:01 pm
“Explain how in 2020, peak conventional oil is relevant for anything?”
I can’t. That’s why I can’t answer your question and I keep talkin in circles.
JuanP is stupid on Sun, 22nd Dec 2019 2:24 pm
Stupid, you were once the self proclaimed PO expert…LMFAO at stupid..before you went full lunatic. Please stupid you answer the question.
Cloggie on Mon, 23rd Dec 2019 1:29 am
“Explain how in 2020, peak conventional oil is relevant for anything?”
No answer from empire dave, no surprises here. He desperately clings himself to his sinister 2005 dream that billions are going to die as a result of fossil fuel shortages (not going to happen) and that our Ozark Noah and his goat ark, as well as the US are going to survive (“last man standing”).
“cloggo, explain the penetration of renewables into global primary energy. Show me profitability of unconventionals these days.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesellsmoor/2019/06/15/renewable-energy-is-now-the-cheapest-option-even-without-subsidies/#5d32f81e5a6b
“Renewable Energy Is Now The Cheapest Option – Even Without Subsidies”
“renewables are a techno fantasy”
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/07/scotland-wind-energy-new-record-putting-country-on-track-for-100-renewable-electricity-in-2020/
“Scotland’s new target: 100% renewable electricity in 2020”
But empire dave will keep denying this as he prefers to live his lie, he told his family about immanent collapse due to fossil fuel shortages. Collapse will happen alright, for demographic reasons (CW2), after which empire dave will abandon his goat enterprise and flee to Italian white safety, with his tail between his legs, much to the delight of his wife, who finally can escape from Hillbilly land and return to civilization and armed with balkanized dave’s credit card can hit the streets of Milan.
Davy on Mon, 23rd Dec 2019 4:40 am
“Explain how in 2020, peak conventional oil is relevant for anything?” “No answer from empire dave, no surprises here. He desperately clings himself to his sinister 2005 dream that billions are going to die as a result of fossil fuel shortages (not going to happen) and that our Ozark Noah and his goat ark, as well as the US are going to survive (“last man standing”).”
Obviously, the cloggo is mad so he defaults to the tired Ozark putdowns.
“cloggo, explain the penetration of renewables into global primary energy. Show me profitability of unconventionals these days.” (this is cloggo’s response)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesellsmoor/2019/06/15/renewable-energy-is-now-the-cheapest-option-even-without-subsidies/#5d32f81e5a6b
Cloggo, we are not to the point where renewables are on their own feet so saying they are cheaper is only because they are subsidized by policy and fossil fuels. This is the same tired explanations out of you that leaves out storage and the needed overbuild required of renewables. The amount of new infrastructure needed for a renewable transition is mind boggling add to that storage and over capacity needed and you see the dynamics. This does not even consider what to do when they wear out. You act like this will self-organize and scale up in a world getting poorer with existential predicaments that are systematic traps. This is typical dellusionals techno optimist.
“Renewable Energy Is Now The Cheapest Option – Even Without Subsidies” not they are not unless you cherry pick the situation and do not look at the big picture.” “renewables are a techno fantasy” https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/07/scotland-wind-energy-new-record-putting-country-on-track-for-100-renewable-electricity-in-2020/ “Scotland’s new target: 100% renewable electricity in 2020”
That is not primary energy and Scotland is subsidized by the rest of Great Britain. Scotland is a postage stamp country just like Holland and Denmark. I am impress with these countries but they do not serve as examples for the rest of the world of momentum.
“But empire dave will keep denying this as he prefers to live his lie, he told his family about immanent collapse due to fossil fuel shortages.”
Nope, not true and yet another cloggo lie. We are in a decline process of which PO is a part of. Oil that is net energy rich is in decline and affecting civilization but the other problems like economics, climate change and planetary declines are also just as important. What is bringing on the collapse process is the negative convergence of all these problems into one big predicament. This is a carbon trap we are in with path dependencies of what got us here of lifestyles and behaviors with no future in a world of depletion. Entropy wins with exponential growth on a finite planet.
“Collapse will happen alright, for demographic reasons (CW2)”
Racist nonsense. Demographics is part of it but not the driver of collapse and the demographics is more age distortions than skin color.
“after which empire dave will abandon his goat enterprise and flee to Italian white safety, with his tail between his legs, much to the delight of his wife, who finally can escape from Hillbilly land and return to civilization and armed with balkanized dave’s credit card can hit the streets of Milan.”
I have a small permaculture goat and cattle farm, cloggo. This is not an enterprise. I have a REAL Green permaculture farm that revolves around green prepping. It is very smart in this day and age to be able to feed yourself and have backup supplies if global supply chains get unstable. Besides that, I love the lifestyle. I love Italy too but won’t live there unless forces to move. AH, also cloggo, I won’t be in Milan. Our big city in Italy is Belluno. Nice city because it is not too big but still has what you need. Air is good too. You would like the fact that it is mostly white too.
Davy on Mon, 23rd Dec 2019 4:49 am
“Steven Mnuchin Explains Why $1.5 Trillion In $100 Bills Have Disappeared”
https://tinyurl.com/t27ksck zero hedge
“Last week we reported that something strange was going on at the same time that central banks are injecting $100 billion each month in electronic money to crush volatility and ramp markets: a similar amount in physical currency and precious metals was literally disappearing. The mystery, in a nutshell, was as follows: while banks are printing more bank notes than ever, these seem to be “disappearing off the face of the earth” and nobody knows where or why, or as the WSJ notes, “central banks don’t know where they have gone, or why, and are playing detective, trying to crack the same mystery.” And while readers can read up much more on the topic of disappearing hard assets here, a few days after, Fox Business picked up on this thread, writing that almost $1.5 trillion of the world’s physical cash, with $100 dollar bills making up the vast majority, was reportedly unaccounted for. So what happened to the money? To get to the bottom of this mystery, this was the question FOX Business anchor Lou Dobbs asked the man who literally signs every single US dollar bill, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. The response” “Literally, a lot of these $100 bills are sitting in bank vaults all over the world,” Mnuchin said. Mnuchin pointed to the negative interest rates causing people to turn to American dollars as a solid investment. The dollar is the reserve currency of the world, and everybody wants to hold dollars,” Mnuchin said on “Lou Dobbs Tonight.” “And the reason why they want to hold dollars is because the U.S. is a safe place to have your money, to invest and to hold your assets.” Mnuchin said it’s interesting that, in a increasingly digital world, “the demand for U.S. currency continues to go up.” adding that “there’s a lot of Benjamins all over the world.”
Davy on Mon, 23rd Dec 2019 5:01 am
“Boris Johnson’s Victory Heralds A Golden Era In US-UK Relations”
https://tinyurl.com/tcjppw8 zero hedge
“The first indication of a revival in relations between Washington and London came when Mr Trump was one of the first world leaders to congratulate Mr Johnson on his historic win — he secured the largest Conservative majority since Mrs Thatcher’s third election victory in 1987 — and immediately promised to strike a “massive” new trade deal with the UK post-Brexit. The US president said a future US-UK trade agreement has “the potential to be far bigger and more lucrative” than any deal that could have been made with the EU. Indeed, with Mr Johnson assured of being Britain’s prime minister for the next five years, and Mr Trump well-placed to secure re-election in next year’s presidential election contest, there is every prospect that the two leaders could herald a new golden era of transatlantic relations not seen since the alliance of Mrs Thatcher and US President Ronald Reagan in the 1980s.”
Davy on Mon, 23rd Dec 2019 5:07 am
“Sweden: The Wages Of Self-Loathing Is Civil War”
https://tinyurl.com/wutllxh american thinker
“How we get to civil war is that the government reaction to the escalating violence is likely to lag too far behind events and public opinion. And then an officer in the armed forces will have his wife or daughter killed and lead his unit in taking over the parliament building. Nobody in the police force will stop him, because the police have been taking the brunt of the Islamist violence for decades. The next phase will be the reaction of the lefties running Germany, France, and the European Union. The yellow vests have been protesting in France for over a year now. Early on, they were surprised to see European Union decals on French armored personnel0carriers. It seems that Macron and Merkel have conspired to create a French-German force to put down insurrections in Europe. To get to Sweden, this force would have to pass through Denmark, and the Danes are likely to stop them. If that fails, any armored column is unlikely to get across the Oresund Bridge that connects Denmark and Malmö in Sweden. The Swedes make good antitank weapons. Yes, you can have a civil war in this day and age. With respect to Sweden, what can’t go on forever won’t. If the state does not maintain its monopoly on violence, the state ceases to exist.”
fwsmj on Mon, 23rd Dec 2019 5:24 am
Davy on Mon, 23rd Dec 2019 4:49 am
Above supertard obv.
Everyone bee respectful of supertard
Who keeps buying up all the lib urns
Stop
Burn Baby Burn on Mon, 23rd Dec 2019 5:25 am
(AP) – Aussie Bushfire Update No 12: An area equivalent to the size of Belgium consumed: Another scorcher just around the corner: Sydney surrounded by “mega-fires”
The Cudlee Creek fire is revealed to have destroyed 86 homes in South Australia while 100 more estimated lost in New South Wales as residents wait to discover the extent of devastation from weekend’s fires. Western Australia’s firefighting aerial fleet has dropped 8.9m litres of water so far this bushfire season, which is more than half the water used for the entirety of 2018-19. The recent Yanchep bushfire alone accounted for about 4.7m litres of water, emergency services minister Francis Logan said.
Heatwave update: the extraordinary nationwide burst that gave Australia its hottest three days on record between Tuesday and Thursday continued into the weekend before dipping slightly on Sunday, the Bureau of Meteorology says. The average maximum temperature across the country on Friday was 40.3C. Before last week, that would have made it equal with hottest day recorded on 7 January 2013. But that mark was easily broken on Tuesday (initially reported as 40.9C after a preliminary assessment by the bureau, now confirmed as 41.0C), then smashed on Wednesday (41.9C). Thursday fell back to 41C. It means the country endured four of its five hottest days in a row. It is also the driest start to the southern season in more than 40 years, AAP reports.
Air quality across Adelaide has fallen to hazardous levels because of smoke from the bushfires in the Adelaide Hills, the Environment Protection Authority says. It says pollution levels in the city are two to seven times normal levels.
The Australian prime minister continues to claim (as does Trump) Global Climate Change is a hoax being perpetrated by the global scientific community in an effort to obtain higher funding levels for research.
The town of Balmoral was destroyed over the weekend: Credit Matrix News
The fires have torched at least three million hectares (7.4 million acres) of land — an area equivalent to the size of Belgium — with at least 10 people killed and more than 1,100 homes destroyed. RTL
‘The Monster’: A short history of Australia’s biggest forest fire, The Gospers Mountain ‘mega-fire’ started from a single ignition point. It has now destroyed an area seven times the size of Singapore. It started on the afternoon of October 26, an unseasonably warm Saturday following a run of hot days, the wind picked up over the Blue Mountains and lightning stabbed at the ranges.
By the end of the day, the blaze had expanded to an area of 521 hectares, but in residential areas surrounding the park, there was still nothing to see but smoke. On November 12, it was just one among 300 fires that gripped the state on a day that conditions were rated catastrophic. By the end of the day, the fire had wiped out more than 30,000 hectares and presented peril in every direction.
By November 16, the fire had trebled in size to 90,000 hectares. On December 6, having destroyed 250,000 hectares, it joined the Little L and Paddock Run fires south of Singleton, the Three Mile fire on the Central Coast and the Thompson Creek fire in Yengo National Park to form a 60-kilometre front burning out of control.
Last Sunday, when the fire had grown to 350,000 hectares. Eight weeks after the lightning strike, the Gospers Mountain fire burns brighter than ever. Its southern flank is divided by about 20 kilometres of bushland from the Ruined Castle and Green Wattle Creek fires west of Campbelltown – roughly the same distance that embers can travel on the wind. Full story, Sydney Morning Herald
Another scorcher just around the corner
Christmas weather offers brief reprieve but the punishing summer is not over yet. For many Australians, waking up on Monday morning brought a delightful pre-Christmas gift — cool temperatures and a forecast map that didn’t have Australia entirely doused in colours ranging from deep reds to bright purples. Unfortunately, we’re not out of the woods yet, with another forecast scorcher just around the corner. The major capitals were certainly milder, though smoke-shrouded large parts of eastern Australia and haze in Adelaide from nearby bushfires choked the city, prompting a road weather alert from the Bureau of Meteorology. ABC
More than 1100 properties have been damaged or destroyed in the ongoing NSW bushfire crisis with fears the tally will soon jump to include another 100 houses. RFS deputy commissioner Rob Rogers said it would be another 24 hours before they had an accurate number of homes destroyed ‘but I think it is fair to say .. it is around 100’. Mr Rogers on Monday said more than three million hectares have been scorched this bushfire season. ‘It’s an enormous amount of the landscape and forested areas,’ he told reporters in the Blue Mountains. ‘We shouldn’t underestimate just how much of the natural environment is being burnt and that’s got serious ecological impacts as well as the fire impact … I think that will be felt for years to come.’ He said that while Monday was a cool day, the threat had not passed for the Blue Mountains and firefighters would be doing a lot of containment work in coming days. Daily Mail
Davy on Mon, 23rd Dec 2019 5:26 am
“Massive debt wave could crash on developing countries, World Bank warns”
https://tinyurl.com/u7b34p6 digital journal
“A wave of debt in emerging and developing nations has grown faster and larger than in any period of the last five decades and could end with another crisis, the World Bank warned Thursday. And if the wave breaks, it could be more damaging since it would engulf private companies in addition to governments, at a time when economic growth is sluggish, according to a new report that covers four debt surges from 1970-2018. “The size, speed and breadth of the latest debt wave should concern us all,” World Bank President David Malpass said in a statement…Much of the growth was incurred by China (equivalent to more than $20 trillion), but Beijing also has become a large lender for low-income countries. The report warns that the current debt wave “could follow the historical pattern and culminate in financial crises in these economies,” especially if interest rates spike or if there is a sudden global shock.”
supremacist muzzies jerk on Mon, 23rd Dec 2019 5:30 am
Fuck off FWSMJ aka supremacist muzzies jerk aka SkumBag II.
supremacist muzzies jerk on Mon, 23rd Dec 2019 5:33 am
supertard SAW SAWS pbuh swt REAL Green Ozark Goat you losing cool lately. please go play with the goats and auto keltecs or submit to the briefest cornholing or brisk cornhusking.
Davy on Mon, 23rd Dec 2019 5:37 am
I feel so skumy…..
The sad reality of what is happening is I have weaponized the bad behavior of taking people identities and using multiple fake handles. This then gets used against me and the result is a forum any normal person with a rational and intelligent mind will avoid. I don’t care because for me this is about a turf war and I have nothing better to do with my meaningless widdle life.
I like to think this is my own private forum to say and do as I please. It isn’t.
I want this place to submit to my will. They won’t.
If I don’t get what I want then nobody does cus i think i’m special. I’m not.
I don’t care to contribute either I just want to have this place to myself and play my mind games and copy and paste off topic spam and pretend i’m neutering everyone else. Insane huh?
Obviously, this is driving people off but who cares. I don’t cus i’m a liar and a hypocrite. And a selfish dumbass.
JuanP is stupid on Mon, 23rd Dec 2019 5:57 am
Stupid is up
This is from stupid”
Davy said I feel so skumy….. The sad reality of what i…
supremacist muzzies jerk said supertard SAW SAWS pbuh swt REAL Green Ozark Goat…
supremacist muzzies jerk said Fuck off
FWSMJ aka supremacist muzzies jerk aka Sk…
Burn Baby Burn said (AP) – Aussie Bushfire Update No 12: An area…
fwsmj said Davy on Mon, 23rd Dec 2019 4:49 am Above supertard…
The Board on Mon, 23rd Dec 2019 6:00 am
Stupid is mad as hell and frustrated. He can’t get rid of Davy. Stupid’s comments are stupid but Davy’s are actual intelligent comments or debate. Stupid is a lunatic and has destroyed this forum. Stupid you can’t get ride of Davy so quit digging your hole deeper like a mental illness does. Get help psychopath.
Davy on Mon, 23rd Dec 2019 7:32 am
“Massive debt wave could crash on the United States, World Bank warns”
In a previous life, RepubliCONS claimed to worry about deficits. We now understand it was all talk. Despite Donald Trump creating the largest budget deficits in presidential history, his Republicon enablers could care less. The GAO estimates the FY 2019 Trump budget will easily exceed $1 TRILLION. For FY 2020, Trump’s deficit will reach $1.5 TRILLION as the Trump tax cut for the wealthy becomes fully implemented. And Trump doesn’t care as he believes someone else will have to eat his shit. His only concern is reelection regardless of the consequences. Thus he is trying to use every gimmick in the book to prop up the economy.