Scenarios For 2035: Long-Term Trends, Challenges And Uncertainties Facing NOAA

NOAA needs to consider alternative external environments in which it might operate in the next 25 years so it can best position itself to fulfill its mission requirements and generate sustained benefits in the areas most highly valued by society. The world in 2035 will be shaped by a complex set of forces, only some of which NOAA will be able to influence. In addition, the future external dynamics and outcomes of many forces and drivers are highly uncertain over this long period of time; only a few are relatively predictable.

The scenarios conveyed in this document are derived from different combinations of outcomes at the extreme ends of three axes of uncertainty: the nature and mix of economic activity; governance and decision-making processes; and the interaction between society and the physical environment. The scenarios also include a range of forces that are fairly certain to occur and consequently appear nearly identically in each scenario, although their impacts may vary substantially.

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NOAA 2035 Scenario Planning Presentation from April 2009 meeting of the Marine Protected Areas Federal Advisory Committee. (see Slides 25, 32, 34, 9, 10, 12, 18, 21, 22)

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