Saudi Petroleum Reserves and Rivalry over Peak Production

Al-Hayat – The issue of petroleum reserves has taken, on the international level, especially in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, a large share of the media debate over the past months. Many opinions surfaced, claiming that the Saudi production (which reflects the amount of available reserve for production) has reached its peak and is about to drop during the coming years.

This opinion was particularly tackled by Mr. Matthew Simmons in a book issued in the US under the title “Twilight in the Desert”. He claimed therein that nearly 90% of the Saudi petroleum production is being extracted from few large and old fields and that the production level of the most prominent among them has maintained a high pace during the past 50 years. This was achieved through methods and techniques that may be inappropriate, stemming from the Kingdom’s wish to be the largest and most important petrol producer and exporter worldwide.
Simmons claims that this policy negatively affects fields’ productivity, leads to a decrease in reserves during a shorter period of time than expected, and creates a large quantity of petrol that can be extracted from the main fields in the Kingdom. In other words, the adopted production policy shortens the presumed production lifespan of these fields.

Simmons questions the opinions of many Saudi petroleum observers, decision makers, and petroleum and geology scientists, and others. He claims that the Kingdom cannot preserve steady production levels in the average of 10 million b/d or more during the upcoming years. This claim stems from his suspicions regarding the petroleum reserve level announced by the Kingdom, which reaches 264 million barrels.

Al-Hayat