Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar Isn’t Sinking (but has apparently moved)

Analysts Neil McMahon and Ben Dell from Bernstein Research are back with more analysis. When we last heard from them, they were looking for Haradh in all the wrong places and reporting on the widespread dismantling and bulldozing of oil wells in Ghawar, the super giant oil field in Saudi Arabia. As promised, they have returned with a study purporting to show that Ghawar is not rapidly depleting because it is not sinking. Using the the technique of Synthetic Aperature Radar (SAR) Interferometry, which is capable of measuring millimeter vertical movements via satellite, they found not subsidence but actually a slight rise in one area. Despite the rather dubious premise behind this, given that Ghawar is being pressurized by injecting water, it warranted another look. However, before getting to that question, my analysis of their analysis rapidly became one of forensic pathology. Alas, they have misplaced Ghawar by a few miles, rendering their interpretations misplaced as well. Also, their technique for quantifying changes in oil field infrastructure was found to be rather inaccurate. This can’t end well.


Ghawar is the largest oil field in the world. It is divided into six operational areas, as shown in the figure at right. The most productive yet most depleted areas of the field are ‘Ain Dar, Shedgum, and the northern two thirds of Uthmaniyah. Haradh has undergone three drilling increments beginning in the mid 1990s and culminating with the Haradh III project in 2006. In my critique of their previous report, I noted that they claimed to have determined the extent of drilling for Haradh III — despite the fact that their data did not cover the area in which Haradh III is located. They have responded with new data but with the same interpretation as before.

However, something else was amiss with a figure they provided showing the area around Haradh III along with identified well locations. The underlying satellite image has numerous surface features which can be used to align an overlay of their data on Google Earth. Most prominent in the Haradh area is a line of irrigated crop circles along a river bed. This line cuts across the “toe” of Ghawar, the location of the Haradh III increment. Upon using this feature to align the Bernstein data, it was apparent that they have Haradh located 10 miles to the northeast of where it actually is. This is shown in the figure below.

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