RUSSIAN OIL PIPELINE SHUTOFF TO LITHUANIA: WIDER RAMIFICATIONS

Moscow’s closure of the oil pipeline to Lithuania in July 2006 “looked, sounded, and felt” like political and economic retaliation against the privatization of Lithuania’s Mazeikiai refinery by Poland’s PKN Orlen, which had prevented a Russian takeover The Russian government cited the need for “emergency repairs” on the Russian stretch of that line, a northbound spur from the westbound Druzhba pipeline. However, Russia failed to carry out any repairs ever since and ignored Lithuania’s and the European Union’s requests for information.

The cutoff has now become all but official.
On May 31 and June 1, Russia’s Industry and Energy Minister Viktor Khristenko told the press that repairing the Russian pipeline stretch for Lithuania would be too complicated and not make sense (Interfax, RIA-Novosti, May 31, June 1). Moreover, he stated, the oil volumes that were previously supplied to Lithuania through that line would be switched to Russia’s port of Primorsk, as part of the large-scale project to redirect Russian oil from the Druzhba pipeline toward the new Baltic Pipeline System (BPS-2), which runs on Russian territory to Primorsk

This scenario adversely affects Lithuania, Poland, and potentially other countries downstream the Druzhba pipeline that runs from Russia and Belarus to central Europe.

While seemingly unassailable legally, Moscow’s stance seems to bear out the recent forecast of Moscow-based, Russia-friendly energy and finance specialist Eric Kraus: “Russia would have no need to shower the West with nuclear missiles to create Armageddon. A simple announcement that the Transneft export pipeline would be shut down for ‘emergency repairs,’ but would be working again, soon, sometime, hopefully, [such an announcement] would send oil prices spiraling above $200 [per barrel], creating financial chaos. Yes, this is politique fiction, but it is meant to underscore the simple fact that the West shall be forced to seek an accommodation with Russia” (Truth and Beauty and Russian Finance, nikitskyfund.com, Johnson’s Russia List # 125, June 3).

Eurasia Daily Monitor