Rough ride after oil production peak

While a growing chorus of voices has been trying to get the public’s attention about our “oil problem,” little in-depth analysis has appeared in the national media. An essay for this page Monday described an “oil shock wave” as the problem. The real problem is much more serious.

A “wave” is a disturbance which moves on with the medium returning to its previous level. With regard to oil, this is what we experienced in 1973 and 1979. In those cases, oil was embargoed temporarily with price and supply shocks. Today, we have a looming crisis which will not be temporary.

The world is consuming oil at a rate much greater than new discoveries. In fact, while consumption has been rising, discoveries have been falling for years. This means that we have been eating into our reserves. This cannot continue forever. Some say that at today’s rate of consumption the world’s oil supply will last for 40 years or more. There are two problems with that statement; first, consumption is increasing at about 2 percent per year, and second, our problems do not occur when the oil runs out. At 2 percent per year, consumption would double in 35 years if unrestrained.

A growing community of concerned citizens, scientists and leaders has reached the conclusion that our oil problems will morph into a growing crisis when about half of the world’s oil has been consumed. Based upon the history of oil wells, oil fields and producing countries, oil production increases, after discovery, to a maximum, then falls relentlessly. Recently, this maximum has been referred to as “peak oil.” This peak, or maximum, occurs when about half of the oil in any well or field has been produced. The maximum production for the United States occurred in 1970. In fact, most of the oil producing countries of the world have passed their maximum.

Daytona Beach News-Journal