Roscoe Bartlett: Peak oil address to House of Representatives

Mr. Speaker, our government has paid for four studies looking at the world energy situation, particularly at oil. Two of those studies were reported in 2005, and two of them were reported in 2007. The two in 2005 were the SAIC report known as the “Hirsch Report,” and then later in the year there was a report by the Army Corps of Engineers,
and then in 2007 there were two reports, one of them by the Government Accountability Office and the second one by the National Petroleum Council.

They all said essentially the same thing in different words. I have here some quotes from the first one of these, and the largest one. Remember, this is now in 2005, and this is from the Hirsch Report. “Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management” was the title of their work.



They all said essentially the same thing in different words. I have here some quotes from the first one of these, and the largest one. Remember, this is now in 2005, and this is from the Hirsch Report. “Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management” was the title of their work.

World oil peaking is going to happen. By peaking, we mean that time at which the world reaches its maximum capacity for producing oil. After that time, regardless of the demand for oil and regardless of the desire to produce more oil, the world will not have the ability to ramp up in oil production to produce more oil.

World production of conventional oil will reach a maximum and decline thereafter. That maximum is called the peak. A number of confident forecasters project peaking within a decade. Others contend it will occur later. Prediction of the peaking is extremely difficult because of geological complexities, measurement problems, pricing variations, demand elasticity and political influences. Peaking will happen, but the timing is uncertain. Oil peaking presents a unique challenge.

Energy Bulletin