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Page added on December 21, 2014
Robert Rapier: Five for Five in 2014
As the year expires and the new year arrives, there are several topics I like to cover in a series of articles. One is to review the top energy stories of the year. Another is to grade my predictions for the year. And finally, I lay out my predictions for the upcoming year.
Usually I have a dilemma of whether to grade my predictions first, or to lay out the energy stories first — because I normally do both stories at the end of the year, and something could potentially happen right at the end of the year that might change the narrative. For example, I might do the top energy stories this week, but what if something monumental happens in the next two weeks? The other option is of course to wait until after the first of the year, but then that delays my predictions.
This year, however, there isn’t much of a dilemma on which story to do first. I can grade my 2014 predictions at this point with a high level of confidence.
I laid out these predictions in a January article called My 2014 Energy Predictions. I generally make five predictions, and outline the context for these predictions. I make predictions that are specific, measurable, and in most cases actionable. My five predictions for 2014 (without the context) were:
- The crude oil export ban will not be lifted in 2014.
- Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices will average less in 2014 than in 2013.
- The average Henry Hub spot price for natural gas will be higher in 2014 than in 2013.
- US crude oil production will expand for the sixth straight year.
- KiOR will declare bankruptcy in 2014.
So how did I do? Not too bad.
1. The crude oil export ban will not be lifted in 2014.
The U.S. has had a ban on crude oil exports that dates to the the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) of 1975. Although there are no restrictions on the export of refined products like gasoline and diesel, crude oil exports to all countries besides Canada are effectively banned. Because of the surge of U.S. crude oil production over the past five years, crude oil producers have been lobbying for the export ban to be lifted. The notion of exporting oil might seem far-fetched given that the U.S. is still a significant net crude oil importer, but there are two factors that have pushed the industry to seek change.
The first is that much of the new oil production is too light for many U.S. refineries. These refineries have been retooled to handle much heavier crudes, so the market for the new oil production in the U.S. isn’t as great as it might appear at first glance. This has led to deep discounts on this crude relative to international markets. Second, the U.S. could at least hypothetically become a net crude oil exporter if the rate at which it has recently been increasing oil production continued for the rest of the decade. (Current U.S. government projections predict a significant slowdown in production growth over that period, a scenario has become much more probable recently with the drop in crude prices.)
Lifting the ban has great support in the oil production industry, but much less so among refiners, who enjoy buying the discounted crude and making fatter margins on the gasoline and diesel they sell. A number of politicians in oil-producing states have sided with the drillers. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz has also said that the ban should be revisited. Two Republican House members from Texas, Joe Barton and Michael McCaul, have both introduced legislation to lift the ban. In the Senate, Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) has pressed the issue.
But the only real chipping away at the ban took place when Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD) and Enterprise Product Partners (NYSE: EPD) received a ruling from the Department of Commerce that stabilized condensate is considered to be a refined product rather than crude, and refined products may be exported without running afoul of the crude oil export ban.
So, this prediction was completely correct. Despite a lot of press, the crude export ban remains in place, and it won’t be overturned by year-end.
2. Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices will average less in 2014 than in 2013.
For the first half of the year, it really looked like I was going to get this one wrong. My reasoning was that the flood of new U.S. oil production that first overwhelmed demand in the U.S. Midwest and resulted in sometimes deep discounts there, and that ultimately worked its way to the Gulf Coast, would continue to push out imports, increasing global oil supplies by displacing oil that the U.S. had been importing. Oil supplies were growing faster than demand for a change, and I felt that had to put downward pressure on prices.
According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), in 2013 Brent crude averaged $108.56/barrel (bbl), while the average price of WTI was $97.98/bbl. Brent crude did trade down from that price for most of the year, but through the end of July WTI averaged a bit higher at $101.43/bbl. Even though I felt like the oil markets were being irrational, I had to concede that the price would really have to drop a lot in the remaining five months of the year to salvage this prediction. Well, as you know, a funny thing happened. On July 31 the price of WTI dropped below $100/bbl, and the price has been in free-fall since. Recently the price of WTI broke below $60/bbl, a five-year low.
So through Dec. 19th, the average closing price of WTI is now down to $94.42/bbl year-to-date. It is theoretically still possible for me to be wrong on this prediction, but oil would have to return to well above $100/bbl for the rest of the year. That’s not going to happen. The average price of Brent YTD is $101.15, $7.41 below last year’s average. That would also take a miraculous turnaround in price for my prediction to go wrong.
If something crazy happens and oil shoots back up over $100/bbl in the next few days, I will come back and recheck the numbers at the end of the year. But this prediction looks pretty safe at this point.
3. The average Henry Hub spot price for natural gas will be higher in 2014 than in 2013.
I made this prediction on the basis of long-term natural gas fundamentals. A year earlier I also correctly predicted higher natural gas prices for 2013, but natural gas prices can always be overwhelmed in either direction by short-term weather events. In early 2014 that short-term weather event happened to be a series of polar vortices that gave us the coldest winter in many years. So, after averaging $3.73/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2013, through Dec. 19th the 2014 average daily close has been $4.41/MMBtu. At this point, this prediction would be correct even if natural gas prices went to zero for the rest of the year.
4. US crude oil production will expand for the sixth straight year.
The 7.4 million barrel per day (bpd) average U.S. oil production in 2013 already represented a nearly 2 million bpd increase over the previous two years, which was the fastest rise in U.S. history. But unless oil prices totally collapsed, I felt like it was a pretty sure bet that we would again see another decent advance in U.S. oil production. The final monthly numbers aren’t published until two to three months after the fact, but through September U.S. oil production has averaged 8.4 million bpd in 2014, and each month had higher production than the previous month. In order for this prediction to be wrong, the final three months of the year would have to come in at 4.2 million bpd. Production may pull back a bit as a result of the plunge in oil prices, but it won’t pull back that far, that rapidly. This prediction is safe.
5. KiOR will declare bankruptcy in 2014.
KiOR — which had traded on the Nasdaq as KIOR — was one of three advanced biofuel companies that venture capitalist Vinod Khosla took public in 2011. I was a vocal critic of the frequent overpromises of the company because I understand the technical challenges of their approach, and many of their claims didn’t ring true with me. And despite the rosy promises, the company consistently failed to deliver on its promises to investors. KiOR was a central topic in a 60 Minutes report in January — The Cleantech Crash — in which Lesley Stahl interviewed Vinod Khosla and me. Khosla poured on more pie-in-the-sky and claimed there was no downside to the technology, while I laid out the technical and economical challenges that the company faced, and said that Khosla was over his head in the advanced biofuels business.
The interview actually took place in November 2013, and I told Lesley Stahl then that the company was destined for bankruptcy. That comment didn’t make it on air, but I made the prediction official in a column in January 2014.
I did warn on several occasions that Khosla had his credibility really on the line after previous failures in this space, and he was likely to throw the company a lifeline for a while. But I reasoned that his patience would wear out before year end. Indeed, the company was essentially out of money in April, but Khosla loaned them enough money to get them into fall. And with no real prospects of getting the plant operating properly and producing cost-competitive fuel, Khosla did in fact lose patience and stopped loaning them money. KiOR was delisted from the Nasdaq, and declared Chapter 11 on Nov. 9 after accumulating losses of $629.3 million and revenues of just $2.25 million. The loss for equity investors was total.
Conclusions
Barring some really spectacular events in the oil markets, this year I will be 5 for 5 on my predictions. To be clear, that’s pretty unusual. There are just so many variables in the energy markets, that it is a real challenge to be consistently correct on the direction of prices. This is why I strive to provide a lot of context around my predictions. If market conditions start to change, investors can adjust accordingly. For example, if I predict lower oil prices, but then OPEC slashes production in the middle of the year — you need to understand in that context that prices are probably headed higher, despite my prediction.
Predicting 2015 is going to be a bigger challenge, with much more uncertainty. Nevertheless, I will soon attempt it.
50 Comments on "Robert Rapier: Five for Five in 2014"
Plantagenet on Sun, 21st Dec 2014 8:12 am
Rapier is cheating. The oil export ban wasn’t overturned but Obama administration regulatory rulings made it irrelevant. Rapier did NOT predict the oil price collapse. Etc etc.
penury on Sun, 21st Dec 2014 8:53 am
Plant, you forgot to include the link to your predictions for 2014. I await with bated breath.
Nony on Sun, 21st Dec 2014 10:06 am
He did make his predictions, but they were incredibly timid. For instance, NG (both actual and futures) was already higher at end 2013 than average. So predicting “higher than” is very high probability (could probably even calculate the odds the market had, given puts and calls costs).
He also DID SCREW UP his “to the moon” gas prices article from FEB2014. And that article DID NOT just say “higher than 2013” (no it never did, despite him trying to connect it after the fact). None of the big fears of systemic problems came true. We had a tight winter and he TOTALLY OVERPLAYED it as a systemic problem. NG is 3.5 right now…
Nony on Sun, 21st Dec 2014 10:16 am
Oh…and he totally wiggled and sea-lawyered instead of MANNING UP to his article.
http://www.energytrendsinsider.com/2014/02/26/natural-gas-inventories-are-headed-toward-zero/
Nony on Sun, 21st Dec 2014 10:24 am
“Natural Gas Inventories are Headed Toward Zero”
Rapier wiggles and FAILS TO MAN UP by saying that any decline is “headed toward zero”. If so, I could say oil price is headed toward $5. Or his weight is headed toward 400 lbs. Or any shit like that. But I wouldn’t. Because I’m not a liar.
“This may lead to more spiking prices in the weeks ahead, but more importantly it will probably support higher than normal natural gas prices for the rest of the year.”
VERY LITTLE spiking (one in early March). And then he tries to play a fast one with “higher than normal price”. By saying all he was predicting was higher than year before. But he already said we had a glut that year. He never defined “normal”. And we were under $4 for the year. Surely not a reasonable man’s version of “higher than normal”. Unless you are a word parsing wiggler who would rather defend yourself with equivocation and rationalization than MAN UP.
Nony on Sun, 21st Dec 2014 10:26 am
“natural gas inventories will probably bottom out at the lowest level on record. The current lowest inventory level on record took place on April 11, 2003 at 642 billion cubic feet (bcf).”
Didn’t happen. One place he makes a specific numerical prediction.
Nony on Sun, 21st Dec 2014 10:28 am
“This would put the US about one more cold snap from sending natural gas prices to the moon.”
We had cold snaps until late March (do a Google search on the weather). But we did not have “prices to the Moon”. [capitalize please…it’s a place.]
Nony on Sun, 21st Dec 2014 10:29 am
“Natural gas prices have been falling in recent days, but I think that sell-off is premature.”
Uh, no. Wrong.
Nony on Sun, 21st Dec 2014 10:30 am
” I predict that we will drop below the previous all-time low of 642 bcf from 2003.”
Repeated specific prediction. Wrong.
Nony on Sun, 21st Dec 2014 10:31 am
“If the weather warms up soon we may be able to avoid it, but it looks increasingly likely to me.”
March was far colder than average, but we still did not set that record…
Rapier, wrong, wrong, wrong. Typical peaker. And he wiggles and evades and word parses like a cowardly Clinton.
Nony on Sun, 21st Dec 2014 10:36 am
“Historically inventories haven’t turned up yet as of March 28th. We won’t go to zero; prices will make sure of that. But one more really cold snap and it will send inventories near zero.”
We had an extremely cold March and still did not set the record low. And it wasn’t just price mediated. After all MAR average price was higher than FEB.
Nony on Sun, 21st Dec 2014 10:41 am
Bottom line, the guy makes incredible timid actual numerical predictions and then pats himself on the back as Nostradamus.
Nony on Sun, 21st Dec 2014 10:55 am
I meant MAR price lower than FEB
ghung on Sun, 21st Dec 2014 10:55 am
Bottom line: Nony again junks up the thread with his anti-Rapier rhetoric. I, for one, don’t care who shoves a bee up your ass, Nony, but I do care about people who insist on making the signal-to-noise ratio on this site intolerable. Give it a rest, eh? All of these shots at Rapier could have been combined into one comment.
Like to hear yourself talk much?
Bandits on Sun, 21st Dec 2014 11:25 am
He’s raised the designation of pissant asshole to a new level.
GregT on Sun, 21st Dec 2014 1:07 pm
Nony is trapped in a self re-enforcing ‘positive’ feedback loop. He will either eventually snap out of it, or self destruct. My money is on the latter. Denial is a very powerful psychological defense mechanism.
Nony on Sun, 21st Dec 2014 3:20 pm
Like Ruppert?
Nony on Sun, 21st Dec 2014 9:55 pm
Oh…and before RR comes by and does his patented ignore all the valid crits and fasten on one sea-lawyer excuse thing: OK, we averaged over 4 for the year. Still, a LOT of that was from the first 2 months (already done at the time of his article). We didn’t have the close call that he warned about and are down to 3.50 now (even with low inventories). Prices were not way above normal (and he tries connecting to his previous prediction, but his article NEVER said, “higher than 2013”. it said higher than “normal” whatever the hell that is. And he wiggles like a worm to justify that.
Because it’s all about saying he was Nostradamus and getting some stupid interviews from time to time as an energy talking head. What a stuffed shirt.
Speculawyer on Mon, 22nd Dec 2014 12:47 am
What a lot of sad catty comments. Grow up. He made several rather timid predictions that came out true. Good for him.
Nony on Mon, 22nd Dec 2014 1:39 am
HH NG price is at 3.321 right now.
Nony on Mon, 22nd Dec 2014 1:31 pm
3.152. If we drop into the 2s, I will swoon from cornie happiness.
RobertRapier on Mon, 4th May 2015 2:32 pm
“Rapier wiggles and FAILS TO MAN UP by saying that any decline is “headed toward zero”. If so, I could say oil price is headed toward $5. Or his weight is headed toward 400 lbs. Or any shit like that. But I wouldn’t. Because I’m not a liar.”
Wow, I missed all of your sad, pathetic comments, made ironically when I was celebrating my birthday. Just now came across them today. The first time I have seen this thread, but I usually don’t engage here because of trolls like yourself. In fact, I have seriously considered revoking permission for Peakoil.com to republish my articles because of the nature of some of the trolls here.
Let’s get something clear Nony. I can’t believe anyone is as stupid as you seem to be here, so I can only conclude that your comments are simply those of a malicious troll with a grudge. You have ignored my January 2014 article in which I made specific, measurable predictions for the year and then you have tried to treat various things I have written about oil and gas during the year as if they were my annual predictions. I wrote a lot about the natural gas situation in March, which was quite tenuous at the time. My predictions, which are discussed in this article, are all laid out in January. Here is my prediction about natural gas, which probably was my most conservative prediction: “The average Henry Hub spot price for natural gas will be higher in 2014 than in 2013.” That is measurable, which is why it is stated as it was, and why it is in an article titled “My 2014 Energy Predictions.”
You then pathetically go to comments like this which were written later on as the natural gas situation played out — “This may lead to more spiking prices in the weeks ahead, but more importantly it will probably support higher than normal natural gas prices for the rest of the year” — comments that were in fact correct, and act as if my prediction was “higher than normal natural gas prices.” Indeed, that would be a weaselly prediction. But that wasn’t the one I made; it was simply a comment on where I thought natural gas markets were headed. (Indeed, the situation didn’t turn out as bad as I thought it would because of a mild summer and another record summer of natural gas production).
I make predictions — my actual, official predictions and not my articles during the year in which I try to interpret what is happening in the oil and gas markets — that at the end of the year you don’t have to interpret. My predictions will never say “higher than normal.” They would be specific and measurable, which is why I put them in an article titled “Predictions.” We can measure average oil or gas prices from last year and this year and know with absolute certainty whether I was right or wrong. I comment on the oil and gas markets throughout the year, and sometimes those comments turn out to be wrong. Nobody is always right, but I strive to be right most of the time. For some reason that I can’t begin to understand, you conflate some of those comments with actual, measurable predictions I set forth, ignoring those completely.
As far as predictions being timid — that’s a funny thing. People say that at the end of the year. People who didn’t make any predictions. Just look at how close I was to my oil price prediction being wrong. It was wrong for the first part of the year, and it only ended up being right because of the collapse. I didn’t predict a collapse (nor have I ever implied this), only that I expected the average oil price to be lower than in 2013 (see, measurable). Because they actually drifted up a bit after I made that prediction, it took a pretty sharp fall to salvage that prediction.
But I made that prediction, in January, as I always do with my annual predictions. Lots can happen during the year to prove them wrong. Then at the end of year, lots of Monday-morning (and anonymous) quarterbacks come out of the woodwork to say — with the benefit now of the entire year of hindsight — that predictions were timid. Where, may I ask, are your bold predictions?
One final thing to someone who has lied and lied and lied some more here — and then has the audacity to accuse someone else of doing so. Nony wrote, talking about my natural gas prediction “Still, a LOT of that was from the first 2 months (already done at the time of his article).” My natural gas prediction (you know, the one from the article called “My 2014 Energy Predictions”) was made in January as it always is. So Nony is a liar. I made a specific, measurable prediction prior to the 2 months he/she refers to, and it was in an article that made it clear that these were my predictions. I don’t know what else to say, except I will say that I made more predictions in January 2015. You can easily find them, because the article is “My 2015 Energy Predictions.” I may make comments during the year depending on what is going on with the oil and gas markets, but those predictions are there in that article. Set in stone. Measurable. One, for example, with oil in the $40s and falling fast was that the close price of WTI wouldn’t fall below $40. We have had 2 runs at it and failed. Now it’s possible that events may change and I could say “OK, now I do think we are going below $40.” The latter isn’t a prediction. If we do go below $40, then my actual prediction, made in January, is wrong. End of story. It’s just that as conditions changed, I may have offered up some comments on what was going on, which is quite different than trying to change my prediction. I may explain why oil now looks headed below $40. But if it does, my prediction is wrong. Not hard to understand. At least not for normal people.
You, on the other hand, have ignored the measurable predictions I made for whatever reason. I don’t know what your psychological problem is. And undoubtedly it is enabled by the fact that you are anonymous here. I seriously doubt you would ever have the guts to challenge me publicly. After all, then we could check on actual things you have said (some of which paint you as a real asshole). Now, for the love of God, don’t waste any more of my time by smearing me. I can deal with criticism. I don’t deal well with defamation based on falsehoods, promoted by whatever demons haunt you. Just get over it.
RobertRapier on Mon, 4th May 2015 2:35 pm
“Rapier is cheating. The oil export ban wasn’t overturned but Obama administration regulatory rulings made it irrelevant. Rapier did NOT predict the oil price collapse. Etc etc.”
You too? The regulatory rulings still don’t enable the export of crude. They clarified that natural gas condensate is considered to be processed, which therefore can be exported. There really wasn’t a serious doubt about that, but they wanted a legal ruling. Crude oil still can’t be exported.
Second, I never predicted oil prices would collapse. Look at my prediction. Because oil prices rose during the first half of the year, the collapse is what ended up making my prediction of lower average prices correct. Had they not collapsed, I was on track to be wrong about that prediction.
apneaman on Mon, 4th May 2015 3:33 pm
Nony loves the taste of toe jam.
RobertRapier on Mon, 4th May 2015 3:42 pm
You know, it’s one thing to disagree. It’s quite another to blatantly lie and misrepresent, which he has consistently done with me. Not just on this issue; I have seen him do it on others. Just look at what he wrote:
“his article NEVER said, “higher than 2013″. it said higher than “normal” whatever the hell that is. And he wiggles like a worm to justify that.”
Now if anyone ever needs a crystal clear example that he lacks honesty and integrity, all they have to do is look at that statement, and then look at my predictions. The one from the article that says “My 2014 Energy Predictions.” The one written in January 2014 that is actually linked in this article he is commenting on. The one that he seems to want to pretend doesn’t exist. My specific prediction for natural gas was “The average Henry Hub spot price for natural gas will be higher in 2014 than in 2013.” Kind of looks to me like he is trolling, since I predicted exactly what he claimed I didn’t.
I don’t have to wiggle to justify anything. All I have to do is point to the exact wording of Prediction 3 made in January 2014. It’s so clear, even Nony could understand it if he really wanted to. But instead we get these obnoxious, obsessive attacks. Make your own conclusions about that.
Northwest Resident on Mon, 4th May 2015 4:01 pm
Nony enjoys having his ass served to him on a silver platter. That’s why he posts here so often.
RobertRapier on Mon, 4th May 2015 4:10 pm
I find it funny that on the one hand he wants to claim my prediction was timid, and then on the other he argues until he was blue in the face that I was wrong. I have gone around and around with him enough times in the past to know that he isn’t interested in honest discourse. But if he keeps spreading falsehoods about me, he won’t remain anonymous for long.
Davy on Mon, 4th May 2015 4:20 pm
Thanks Bob, for kicking the dog. The NOo was getting obsessive with his attack on anything not part of the NOo world view. Maybe his tail will be between his legs and he will refrain from his comment intensity.
Nony on Mon, 4th May 2015 5:11 pm
Rapier, for the “headed to the Moon” article, you said “higher than normal”. You have afterwards tried to confound that with your specific annual predictions. But you never explicitly connected the two.
I agree that the faults of one article (the timid predicitions, the clapping yourself on the back) should be criticized for what is wrong with them. And the other MAR article “headed to the Moon” should be faulted for what was wrong with it.
There is no fair way to say that what played out met your MAR hype about a squeeze and prices headed to the moon.
You are a second rater who puffs yourself up as some sort of talking head. And you’re not a deep thinker. And not intellectually honest. You show it by failing to admit the MAR article was overhyped and by dancing around where your remarks were non-quantitative.
P.s. HH is at 2.75…
Nony on Mon, 4th May 2015 5:13 pm
Oh…and that is 2.75 after the second largest winter gas draw in the history of the US.
RobertRapier on Mon, 4th May 2015 5:36 pm
“You have afterwards tried to confound that with your specific annual predictions.”
No, I have pointed you to an earlier prediction — quite specific — that should have clarified “normal” for you. What was left then was you had to make an interpretation, and yours is that my actual predictions from January 2014 were timid, but my comments in March were of much greater significance — but that’s only because you deem them to have been off the mark. Even your “to the moon” comment isn’t an honest assessment. I wrote the then-existing situation was precarious, and that “one more cold snap from sending natural gas prices to the moon.” Somehow, in your demented mind, that comment was of more significance to you than one from a column that I actually called “Predictions” and made an actual numeric prediction — more than a month prior to that. The one I called a prediction you call timid, and the one where I talked about where the situation was and how it could get a lot worse you call a wrong prediction. It’s pathetic. I really don’t know what your problem is. But you are a dick. You are just interested in trolling; nothing more. That March article said “Hey, this is pretty serious. We are really low on inventories. This could be bad.” All of that was true. But it got better from there.
“And you’re not a deep thinker. And not intellectually honest.”
Oh, God, the irony. If you, Mr. Nobody, ever want to debate me in a public forum about who said what and when, I will intellectually bitch slap you into the middle of next month. Because you have made it abundantly clear that you know very little about what my positions have been about things. I have seen you lump me in with the rest of the crowd at TOD when I was at odds with most of the posters most of the time. I was called every name in the book there for arguing that oil was not peaking in 2005 and that Saudi was intentionally curtailing production. But feel free to remain an anonymous coward, always hurling insults from the shadows at those of us who do put our names, reputations, and livelihoods on the line.
RobertRapier on Mon, 4th May 2015 5:41 pm
“Oh…and that is 2.75 after the second largest winter gas draw in the history of the US.”
LOL. You must really be some kind of genius. I will just take it then that you haven’t the slightest clue about my 2015 predictions. You may not care — and that’s fine — but then if you don’t I have to wonder why you are quoting gas prices at me. You really, really need to educate yourself before opening your pie hole.
Nony on Mon, 4th May 2015 5:44 pm
1. As I already showed you. We did have one more cold snap. So the conditionality is irrelevant.
2. After the fact (never within your article), you try to define “normal” as “above 2013”. You never said it at the time. Just afterwards And it sure sounds a lot less bad to say “above the average 2013 (already lower than the 5 year average)” than “above normal.”
You saved yourself some wiggle room with “above normal”. I guess you can define that however you want. But that you try to define it as “above 2013” shows me an intellectual dishonesty.
Instead of sticking up for yourself, be hard on yourself. Hold yourself to the highest standards. Not just what you can lawyer and excuse yourself out of. But a fair man’s standard.
P.s. the lowest inventory ever was straight out numerically wrong, and repeated in your text, and within the theme of the piece.
Nony on Mon, 4th May 2015 5:48 pm
P.s.s. RR: I’m not just saying this to make peace but because I really did notice it. I did read something from you on TOD a couple days ago where you did push peakers to confront their wrong predictions or assumptions. I don’t know that you always do that, but I did notice it at that time. So good for that one. I apologize, but can’t remember the context and wasn’t even snooping you, was looking at some old topic for a different reason.
Nony on Mon, 4th May 2015 5:54 pm
P.s.s.s. I think what pisses you off (and hundred dollar, fails to draw cost curves, Hamilton) is not that I’m stupid, but that I’m on target.
RobertRapier on Mon, 4th May 2015 5:58 pm
“You are a second rater who puffs yourself up as some sort of talking head.”
Sometimes I wish more people felt that way. I would have a little more time to myself if I didn’t have so many people who don’t feel that way pulling at me. Anonymity does have its perks. You get to be an asshole without anyone connecting the asshole to the real person, who would probably be embarrassed if people in real life knew he acted like such an asshole online. Plus, if you say something really stupid, embarrassing, or you just act like a jerk, is “Nony” going to be held accountable for that?
And, sometimes when your name is public, you occasionally get obsessive trolls clamoring for attention at your expense. You aren’t the first. You aren’t even the 10th. But, you aren’t the worst. Those who make death threats are the worst, but I did see one of them arrested. What is it about Florida?
Nony on Mon, 4th May 2015 6:04 pm
Yes, anonymity does have some of those features.
Nony on Mon, 4th May 2015 6:06 pm
Of course you get a lot of babes, right, from your fame? 😉
RobertRapier on Mon, 4th May 2015 6:09 pm
“the lowest inventory ever was straight out numerically wrong”
Here is what you don’t get, even though I have explained this in crystal clear fashion. My predictions are one thing. But when I make comments throughout the year, sometimes those are wrong. We were in a precarious position in early March, but we escaped without the worst consequences. Did natural gas prices go to the moon? No. Might they have? Sure. That’s the thing about being right on the edge. You don’t have much room for error. And if you say “Did natural gas prices go as high as you thought they would?” I would say “No.” But I never predicted they would go to $10. When I make predictions, I don’t say things like “This year’s natural gas price might be higher than last year’s.”
The difference in a prediction and my March column is this, as I explained earlier. I predicted WTI would not close below $40/bbl this year. There are things that could happen that would change conditions, and I might say “We are very likely now to go below $40.” That’s not a new prediction. If I make a prediction, it is very clearly noted. I do this for historical reasons — one of which is I saw many people weasel out of predictions they made that weren’t specific. So mine are specific, measurable, and identified as predictions.
At the end of the year, I am going to be measured against the prediction, not on my comments over current conditions. Now I think I did make a actual prediction that we would hit the lowest ever inventories for natural gas. That was incorrect. I was wrong about that. I am actually wrong sometimes. But in the 5 predictions I set forth in January of last year, I was right on all 5. And if you think the KiOR prediction was timid, find any other person who predicted it when I did.
Nony on Mon, 4th May 2015 6:19 pm
I was criticizing the articles separately and for different reasons. I think a simple article that revisited the ‘squeeze’ article and said you were wrong and why would have been justified and interesting. Trying to define normal as some low baseline or hide behind the lack of specificity of “to the moon” is evasive and self serving and not intellectually honest.
I actually find the MAR article the more interesting one than the JAN ones. I don’t get so much into your specific predictions or your trumpeting how great you did. A lot of them are not that out there, if you just look at the futures curves and things like that. For that matter to not compare your takes to the public arbitrage-able information shows a lack of helpful comparison.
RobertRapier on Mon, 4th May 2015 6:22 pm
“Of course you get a lot of babes, right, from your fame?”
At least 95% of the people who contact me are guys. It seems the energy space doesn’t attract a lot of women. But as far as babes go, I have the only one I need.
Nony on Mon, 4th May 2015 6:28 pm
Good answer! I hope she is hanging around you drinking a glass of wine, while the sea breezes blow through your lanai.
RobertRapier on Mon, 4th May 2015 6:29 pm
“Trying to define normal as some low baseline…”
Since you believe my “normal” had no context at all, then you have to understand that you have put your own spin on it to come to the conclusions you reached. Ditto, “to the moon.” Those have been filtered through your perceptions, you have decided “Here’s what he meant”, and then you have criticized me for it. Because your perception couldn’t possibly have been wrong, right? It is impossible that “normal” for me was relative to last year, which is how I defined my prediction for the year? Of course, you have been judge, jury, and executioner on that one — based on your perception of something you admit was vague.
Nony on Mon, 4th May 2015 6:35 pm
I don’t think that is the best reading for someone just reading that piece. And I think your trying to connect the two after the fact is self-serving (an interpretation to your benefit, rather than objective). It might not be Shawshank Redemption warden level of wrongness, but it’s not Abraham killing his son level of straight-upness.
RobertRapier on Mon, 4th May 2015 6:38 pm
If you want to see some of what I dealt with at times at The Oil Drum, here you go: http://www.energytrendsinsider.com/2007/03/24/peak-oil-and-the-lunatic-fringe/
Nony on Mon, 4th May 2015 6:50 pm
It’s a good thing we don’t have any of these emotive, reactive types at this blog.
Nony on Mon, 4th May 2015 7:53 pm
“I will just take it then that you haven’t the slightest clue about my 2015 predictions.”
I didn’t read the 2015 ones. I’m not so interested in them. (Not said to be cutting. It’s truth.)
So anyhow, forget 2015. We were in the high 2s and low 3s in DEC2014. And into the 3s by summer of 2014. I don’t see how that fits into the “higher than normal” definition. [I guess you can define “normal” as 2013, but you sure didn’t in the article and it sure would have been less dramatic to say ‘averaging about 3.5’ (or whatever the exact number would be).
Apneaman on Mon, 4th May 2015 8:21 pm
Emotive? Nony your the king of motivated reasoning.
“We apply fight-or-flight reflexes not only to predators, but to data itself.” –Chris Mooney
And when the data/prices tumbled to their lowest last fall, you took flight and were not heard from…..until you spent enough time in your mental man cave moving goal posts around and conjuring up new ridiculous levels of evidence that you apply to everyone except yourself. Most of this was done on a subconscious level as a means of reducing cognitive dissonance. We all do it to some degree, but people who insist that the world MUST work a certain way suffer it the most. Man up Nony.
“The most common of all follies is to believe passionately in the palpably not true. It is the chief occupation of mankind.”– H. L. Mencken
Nony on Mon, 4th May 2015 8:29 pm
You’ve gotta be crazy to think that I took a big drop in price as some sort of ant-cornie position. I’ve ALWAYS said Rock was right when he pointed out the huge wealth transfer involved in 100 dollar a barrel oil. Always said was a powerful point for the peakers. (“POD”.) So how the heck now does 50/bbl make me scared or think events turned against me?
Heck, we drill baby drilled and it had an impact. Cornies were totally validated.
Now imagine if Obama had kept his promise and opened up VACAPES and the Gulf? Imagine if we had allowed KXL, opened ANWAR, supported pipelines out of the Bakken (infrastructure president my ass), allowed LTO/cond exports, etc.? Oil would have tumbled even faster and even more. We could have really rocked that pig.
[And it’s not even the immediate impact of opening up the VACAPEs. The point is price of oil is forward looking. cf. Hotelling rule or just basic logical intuitions about contango forward trade arbitrage.)
Tom S on Tue, 5th May 2015 12:31 am
Nony,
It’s not clear to me why you’re having this personal negative reaction to what Rapier wrote. His predictions have been fairly good, he has real expertise about these issues, and when he’s wrong he admits it.
Previously, the people with an almost religious fervor reacted in a hysterical/angry way when Rapier called something of theirs into question. I can kind of understand why they would do that. However, I can’t understand why you’re doing it.
-Tom S