Risk Assessments: Playing the "What If?" Game

I spend a lot of time playing “What if?” It is an important aspect of my line of work, but we all do this to some extent. I do it when I am driving – “What if that car at the next intersection pulls out in front of me?” – when I am working “What if that high pressure line ruptures?” – and at home – “What if I wake up and find the house is on fire?” I also spend a lot of time pondering the “What if there are energy shortages in the near future?”

When we do this, we are generally trying to understand the potential consequences of various responses to a given situation. This sort of exercise is a form of risk assessment, and it is a very important tool for making decisions about events that could impact the future. Sometimes the consequences are minor. If I choose not to take an umbrella to work and it rains, there is probably a small consequence. If I choose to pass a car on a blind hill, the consequence may be severe, and may extend to other people.

In this essay I will explore the implications of the question: “What if I am wrong on peak oil or global warming?”

The Oil Drum