Richard Heinberg: The shape of the recovery

An article on the Bloomberg website today suggests that Asia will have a “V-shape” recovery from the current economic crisis, rebounding in 2010. This is opposed to a “U-shape” recovery, which would presumably take a little longer.

May I suggest another alphabetic possibility? What if the “recovery,” not just in Asia, but globally, is shaped more like a big capital L?


No doubt the suggestion that we have reached fundamental limits to economic growth is as unpalatable today as was the initial forecast, issued back in 1972, that such limits would be met during this century. The famous Club of Rome report, which sold more copies than any other environmental book in history, was vilified almost immediately by pro-growth think tanks in Washington, which organized a highly successful PR takedown during the 1980s. Today, it is impossible to mention the phrase “limits to growth” in public without hearing a dismissive outburst from somewhere within earshot. Never mind the follow-up studies that have shown that the primitive computer-based analysis on which the original report was based was on the right track