Review: ”Beyond Oil” by Kenneth Deffeyes

While studded with gems of information and insight, overall I found this book somewhat disappointing. As a former colleague of M. King Hubbert at Shell, geologist Kenneth Deffeyes gives an excellent account of the theory behind “Peak Oil” – in particular the compelling straight-line plots comparing current to cumulative production that are the surest foundation of the predictions. Deffeyes derives from these plots that the effective peak in oil production will be within one month of November, 2005.

But the insight after that point seems lacking – what does the peak actually mean, why does the decline happen? Is the price volatility Deffeyes identifies, rather than just high prices, the key to the failings of economic analysis of the problem? Does that come about from substitution, or is there really going to be a decline in energy resources available? The fact that oil companies have not been building new refineries recently suggests they are well aware they will need fewer, not more, in future.
SciScoop