Renewable Transition 1: Targets & Troubles

In this series I will again approach the issue of energy return on energy invested (EROEI), or net energy. Rather than a detailed analysis of the EROEI value of specific types of renewable energy technology, however, my goal is to consider systemic implications and the role of uncertainty in the ability of our civilization to transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy. In this first post I will discuss the challenges and potential goals of such a renewable energy transition, noting the criticality of EROEI values to our ability to transition. Next, I will look more closely at EROEI itself, exploring our inability to produce an accurate, inclusive, and verifiable measurement, and explain why the resulting degree of uncertainty is very significant. Finally, I will consider the path forward amidst this uncertainty.

To the extent that the global community is concerned with energy scarcity at all, it is my opinion that there is a pervasive faith that, over the coming decades, we will overcome these challenges by gradually transitioning to a renewable-energy economy. Certainly not everyone shares this vision of the future, but it appears to be both the conclusion of many intelligent commentators within the field, as well as the only politically-viable vision offered by politicians to the masses. The result is that, while it is acceptable to debate the mechanics of realizing this vision, any attempts to question its general feasibility tend to be swept under the rug.

Let