'Rebound effects' of energy efficiency could halve carbon savings

Using energy more efficiently might not be as effective at tackling climate change as people think, according to a new study. A team of economists has shown that so-called “rebound effects”, where efficiency improvements are offset by behaviour changes, such as increasing demands for cheaper energy, could potentially slash future carbon and energy savings by half.

The rebound effect was first proposed in the 19th century but, until now, there has been very little research on how significant it might be. In the latest study, Terry Barker, of the Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research, showed that if the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) recommendations for efficiency measures are followed in full in the next few decades, the total rebound effect – the proportion of potential energy savings offset by changes in consumer and industry behaviour – could be 31% by 2020 and about 52% around the world by 2030.
He is presenting the results today at a Cambridge University seminar, where economists, business people and policymakers will gather to discuss the wider implications of the rebound effect and consider how to incorporate it into climate negotiations.

“The green stimulus packages being implemented to tackle the financial crisis in several countries all include investments in energy efficiency,” said Barker. “They may be a lot less effective at reducing energy use than expected because of the rebound effect, especially in developing countries.”

Policymakers and scientists, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, only consider the direct rebound effects of energy efficiency, largely ignoring the indirect and economy-wide effects that Barker also identifies in his research.

Guardian