Reasons To Be Gloomy

Four things to worry about.

In July, I spoke at a London conference with the gloomy title “Darkest Before the Dawn.” That darkness hung over the meeting, as economists and strategists, both behind the podium and in the audience, detailed the growing international anxiety over America’s financial crisis and its potential impact on global markets. Nevertheless, most of them seemed convinced that better days are coming.

As a political scientist, I fear the dawn may be farther behind the horizon than some expect, as four emerging trends pose broader and deeper challenges to the international order than we’ve seen in several decades.


The first of these drivers of long-term change involves energy. In 1990, the world consumed about 66 million barrels of crude oil per day. By 2007, that number had climbed to 86 million. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that by 2030, daily demand will soar to 118 million barrels. As energy consumption soars in developing countries like China and India, supply is struggling to keep pace.

The problem is not that the world is running out of oil. It’s that future supplies will come increasingly from politically less stable parts of the world