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Page added on July 7, 2013
R.I.P. The Oil Drum 2005-2013 {Peak Oil proclaimers giving up}
It was with some dismay that I read this morning of the impending end of The Oil Drum, perhaps the leading “peak oil” blog …
… due to scarcity of new content caused by a dwindling number of contributors. Despite our best efforts to fill this gap we have not been able to significantly improve the flow of high quality articles.
Because of this and the high expense of running the site, the board has unanimously decided that the best course of action is to convert the site to a static archive of previously published material as of 31st July 2013. We will continue to post articles up to this date. Afterwards any articles will be held as a public archive into the foreseeable future, so that others can continue to learn from the breadth and depth of knowledge published by our many authors, over the 8+ history of this remarkable volunteer effort.
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The Oil Drum is the latest victim of the nation’s ongoing boom in oil and natural gas production. Peak Oil Theory has become, for lack of a better word, unsustainable. They’ve had some very talented, analytical and insightful writers over at The Oil Drum; the names of Gail the Actuary, Robert Rapier, JoulesBurn and Art Berman come to mind.
If I seem to be taking some delight in this development, I’m not. I consider the Oil Drum crowd to be compatriots and seekers of the truth of resource supply. The difference may be one of perspective: cup half empty vs. cup half full.
While I’ve spent considerable time and effort debunking Peak Oil Theory, I describe myself as something of a “Plateau Oiler”. What classic (King Hubbert-style) Peak Oil Theory neglects is the powerful effect of economics on the search for resources. Our current boom has sustained because we have had oil prices in the range of $100 per barrel for four years. There is almost a limitless resource base to convert to reserves. In my opinion, we can sustain today’s rates from high cost sources like the shale plays and deepwater. I remain skeptical about our ability to sharply increase supply. I’m not a cornucopian, and in that sense I share some common ground with the more reasonable Peak Oilers.
And even at today’s prices, oil is still a miracle fuel and a bargain. Europeans are willing to pay double and more the U.S. price of gasoline & diesel. Sure, they modify their use somewhat, but they are simply making an economic choice about its use.
Really, I take the end of The Oil Drum as something of a contrary indicator: when the last Peak Oil enthusiast throws in the towel, could calamity be just around the corner?
5 Comments on "R.I.P. The Oil Drum 2005-2013 {Peak Oil proclaimers giving up}"
Alan Cecil on Sun, 7th Jul 2013 9:45 pm
“What classic (King Hubbert-style) Peak Oil Theory neglects is the powerful effect of economics on the search for resources.”
What Mr. PeakOilDenier is missing is that we are going the way of the Easter Islanders; instead of conserving the trees we have left, we’re chop chop chopping ’em down to maintain the status quo. When the plateau ends, the drop-off will be considerably worse.
DC on Sun, 7th Jul 2013 11:09 pm
What a fool, what killed TOD was not the lack of content related to PO, but content that TOD felt was suitable. They narrowed the focus down to only articles geology wonks wont find fascinating. How can this dude not know about that? When TOD welcomed a wide range of PO and related topics, it was always a lively and informative place. After they decided dry articles about rig counts in Southern Saudi Arabia were all they would allow, folks kind of lost interest in going there in a big hurry…
Arthur on Mon, 8th Jul 2013 4:32 am
“the high expense of running the site,”
Running a site costs nothing, except some time. Any fool can start a blog free of charge 😉
Plateau-guy is obviously refusing to look any further into the future than his nose is long. Or refering to the road-runner cartoons of my youth: plateau guys can turn into cliffhangers almost over night.
Jerry McManus on Mon, 8th Jul 2013 5:52 pm
Yep, DC nailed it.
Anyone who spent any time at TOD knows that they killed themselves when they decided that a diverse community of contributors and commentators was not good enough for them.
Towards the end it was very sad indeed, the moderators having succeeded in reducing the site to same six people having the same four pointless conversations.
Madmax on Tue, 9th Jul 2013 7:08 am
The revolution will not be televised, folks. I knew this after the demise of “life after the oil crash” by Matt Savinar.. Best book on peak oil, Matt nails it!
Amerika is stupid again like the Morlocks in H.G. Well’s “Time Machine”.. Bush/Obama don’t get it, for they are in Easter Island mode: The Infinite-Growth-Paradigm has us looking like consumer crackheads.
Michael Ruppert’s movie “Collapse” is pure genius. Build yourself a Lifeboat as society builds tall Easter Island style idols to “growth” (luxury high-rises seem go be fitting).. We can no longer teach/reach the idiots who Refuse to learn. Noah’s ark was built during the bright sunshine.. Remember that & take heart & prepare even more now that we are on our own!