Proponents of the peak oil theory crying wolf

I’ve been following the reports about the enthusiastic reception that Richard Heinberg’s Jan. 10 talk about peak oil and industrial collapse have received in Eugene. Here’s a related problem that I give in class.

World oil reserves are 600 billion barrels, and we are using it at 20 billion barrels per year. How long until we run out? Please write down your answer before you read any more of this column.

My students do the math, and they tell me the oil will be gone in 30 years – maybe just 20, if we add growth in consumption and population. Good try, I tell them, but these numbers are from 1950. Hmm.

The idea of economic collapse from resource exhaustion used to be mainstream economics – a long time ago. In 1798, Thomas Malthus argued that population would soon outstrip food production, and that mass starvation would result.

Eugene Register-Guard