Petroleum Review May 2006

Last month’s issue included a tabulation of megaprojects. However, shortly after publication, Opec posted further details of new projects on its website. These represent a significant additional capacity assuming they come onstream more or less on time.

Capacity erosion is a straight line extrapolation from the 2005 actual of 1.261mn b/d, or approximately 1.5% of production, to 2.5% of production in 2011. This is a very conservative estimate and may prove too low. The Net figure is simply new capacity minus capacity erosionThe Net Net figure is calculated assuming projects are delayed on average by 73 days (20%) and that sustainable peak flows are 90% of quoted peak flows. As can be seen, available capacity to meet demand rises to 2007 and declines thereafter.

http://www.energyinst.org.uk/index.cfm?PageID=1082