Pessimists don't get a free pass

Thomas Homer-Dixon is a deep thinker who matters. Lots of smart people read his books and plenty of powerful people — some of whom are smart, too — seek his counsel.

So it matters when the leading light of the University of Waterloo’s Balsillie School of International Affairs writes something that is seriously misguided.

…Obviously, optimism bias matters when it comes to judging personal risks. But it will make no difference to how people evaluate social or systemic risks such as climate change or an over-leveraged financial system.

Homer-Dixon’s claim that the culture is unduly optimistic and that “no one admires people who are scared or downbeat” is still more dubious. Pessimism is so popular it’s practically a literary genre of its own. Gloomy observers such as James Howard Kunstler have huge followings.

And then there’s environmentalism. It is very much “cool.” Its leading voices — including Al Gore and David Suzuki — are revered. And yet, the overwhelming message it promulgates is profoundly pessimistic.

Ottawa Citizen