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Page added on June 4, 2015
Peak Sweet and Peak Easy : Twenty Years to Transition
It may not be immediately obvious that significant change is underway in the energy sector. Heavily-capitalised and strongly-invested petroleum oil and gas companies stride the lands and seas, seeking what still fruitful part of the Earth’s lithosphere they may devour. Billions of overweight road and air vehicles incessantly burr and rattle, draining the carbon lifeblood from geological time. Yet, still, change is a-coming in.
You wouldn’t know it from the public discourse on energy futures that the debate has shifted anywhere away from the 1980s or the 1990s. Major oil and gas companies still tout the benefits of pricing negative emissions, as if ordinary people still believe what economists and financiers claim. Shell and BP still sell the merits of Carbon Capture and Storage, not that there’s much of this, nor will there be, principally because the technologies proposed are sub-sectoral, will cost a lot to deploy, and won’t capture all the carbon dioxide, anyway. The Laws of Thermodynamics mitigate against the effectiveness of Carbon Capture and Storage – in some cases it could take more energy to bury carbon than dig it up in the first place, and that’s not going to be a winner. But, even though the hydrocarbon hegemony hasn’t brought its arguments up-to-the-minute, change is still taking place.
There are maybe twenty good years to effect a transition out of fossil fuels into manufactured low carbon fuels. The reasons why this needs to happen are : climate change, air quality, Peak Sweet and Peak Easy. Climate change, caused by global warming, caused principally by the burning of fossil fuels and the release of carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere. Air quality is an issue of liveability, as the world’s population clusters ever more into urban environments, cities cannot support coal-burning for power, nor diesel-burning for transport. Peak Sweet is the geological fact : the major pools of hydrocarbons light in sulphur compounds are being depleted so rapidly, that it might come about that the only economic resources left to exploit are sour – with both high levels of sulphur and carbon dioxide. Peak Easy is also a geological fact : remaining hydrocarbon resources that are economic to mine, drill and pump are depleting, and so fossil fuel production is going to get increasingly complex and risky. The oil spills and accidental gas venting of the past could be dwarfed by spills and accidental venting of the future.
Of this list, Peak Sweet and Peak Easy are the reasons why the oil and gas industry will change, even though the position of Civil Society still rests in the territory of climate change and air quality. How to get these positions to marry, to build a unifying narrative ?
Let me propose Shell and BP a public relations pitch for free, no consultancy fees : big up your plans for the low carbon transition – tell the people that you are going to stop digging up climate-destroying carbon for a living, and you are going to focus on manufacturing low carbon gases and oils. I mean, Shell and BP are going to need to do this anyway if they want to stay in business – Peak Sweet and Peak Easy could finish off their rates of return – so why don’t they communicate the positive benefits of the low carbon transition and win friends and investors everywhere ?
What would I write if I wrote them a letter ? “Dear Shell and BP, stop alienating people with tired and failed narratives about carbon pricing and Carbon Capture and Storage. You know these strategies will fail to address the core problems of climate change and air quality. But you also know that these strategies will fail to address Peak Sweet and Peak Easy. It’s time to come clean and publish your strategies for decarbonising your energy products. No, it’s not your natural inclination to go massive on wind power or solar power, so why not go with Renewable Gas – Renewable Methane and Renewable Hydrogen ? This is within your core chemistry capabilities, and ramping up Renewable Gas will prevent you losing market share to third parties like Siemens, GE, Alstom and Schlumberger as they develop Renewable Gas options. You want to remain in business, don’t you ? All of your shareholders count on you. And they won’t accept living with the risk of a massive carbon bubble forever. You have maybe twenty years to prove you can really change, stop digging up ancient climate-disturbing carbon, and transition to low carbon energy products. If you use all your public relations skill, you could sell this transition as a truly valuable change (which it is), and keep friends and influence. The next generation could still respect you if you go public with your need to decarbonise. Shell and BP, save yourselves ! Yours sincerely, etc”
The thing is, Shell and BP can transition to low carbon energy gases and fuels. They can, and they will – they just need to crack on with it faster if they want to survive climate change, disinvestment, divestment and Peak Oil. The world will reinvest in energy : Shell and BP need to get on board the low carbon train or be left to shrink and sink.
12 Comments on "Peak Sweet and Peak Easy : Twenty Years to Transition"
Plantagenet on Thu, 4th Jun 2015 6:55 pm
What kind of “low carbon” hydrocarbon fuels is “jo abbess” referring to?
Makati1 on Thu, 4th Jun 2015 7:25 pm
In 20 years, we will be living in a totally different world and BP/Shell may not exist. All this ‘transition’ BS is just dreamers pushing their ideas for money. It ALL about money.
The only ‘transition’ I see coming is the one where we are suddenly forced to change everything because the system has exploded. And the change will be very drastic/negative, not just a sidestep to a different, but equal, BAU scenario.
Davy on Thu, 4th Jun 2015 8:15 pm
Mak, in 20 years you and I will be dead what are you talking about
Kevin Cobley on Thu, 4th Jun 2015 11:18 pm
“You have maybe twenty years to prove you can really change, stop digging up ancient climate-disturbing carbon, and transition to low carbon energy products.”
Evermore mythology about non existent or yet to be invented products taking the place of what we have, what is a low carbon energy product, is this natural gas a product which still has an unsustainable amount of carbon dioxide output and is a product that is finite.
Or is this the mythical H economy, that has to rely on an unstoreable product, that has a huge energy cost in manufacture and low energy output in consumption.
Makati1 on Fri, 5th Jun 2015 3:06 am
Speak for yourself, Davy. I may be dead of an accident, but that is true of all of us. That I am 70 does not mean that I don’t have another 20+ years to go. And since my health is very good at this point, I see another few decades as being likely. No meds required at this point. BMI of 23.7 and has always been close to that. “…People whose BMI is within 18.5 to 24.9 possess the ideal amount of body weight, associated with living longest, the lowest incidence of serious illness,…”
http://www.bmi-calculator.net/bmi-classification/bmi-normal-weight-information.php
My dad was a smoker, light drinker and a hard worker all his life but he made it to 89. His brother is 92 and still motoring on his own. My mom is 89 and still getting around ok. My grandfather made it to his mid 70s with one lung even though he also smoked daily.(WW1 gas casualty) My family is long loved and I can expect the same as I drink moderately and never smoked or used even prescription drugs regularly. Guess we shall have to wait and see who lasts the longest.
Davy on Fri, 5th Jun 2015 3:19 am
Oh, Mak do you think a 70 year old man is going to make it in a collapsed 3rd world country very long? What about an 80 year old? Your longish comment on how likely you are going to live is an example of someone afraid of dying and in denial of death. You will be swallowed up in a country that will fly apart from overpopulation. You may even be on the menu. Old white meat is tough but any meat cooked long enough can be tenderized.
I am in as good of shape as you Mak plus I live in the country with good air not in a mega-Asian city of 12MIL. I am in my early 50’s and in a collapsed world that probably gives me 1/2 of my maybe 35 years left without a BAU medical system. I am being honest and facing reality of what is ahead. Get a grip Mak and face reality.
Hello on Fri, 5th Jun 2015 6:14 am
Mak: They just aired a documentary on Swiss radio about the hordes of philipino illegal immigrants to Taiwan. Working for a pittance under horrible conditions.
For a moment I almost believed you when you claimed your philipines is a paradise. Maybe it’s just what it is, a 3rd world shit hole where you need a welfare check from the west to be able to enjoy it.
Revi on Fri, 5th Jun 2015 6:24 am
Everyone thinks it’s better somewhere else, but in reality we’re all going down together. Any drop in the flow of oil is going to make all our lives much more difficult. Get ready for the downslope. It’s going to be quite a ride!
Dredd on Fri, 5th Jun 2015 6:32 am
A lot will depend on St. Poppycock’s Murdocking of the media.
Some journalists are struggling against propaganda while struggling to give CPR to journalism (From An Editor of the Guardian).
Poisoning is the murderous technique of choice for the Oil-Qaeda psychopaths.
Makati1 on Fri, 5th Jun 2015 11:01 pm
Davy, you are still delusional. I am probably safer here than you are in Missouri or wherever. I am not afraid to die, but it appears you are. I expect everyday to be my last, but plan to live a long time.
I have no one to worry about here except my friends, who are every bit as good and reliable as family. Maybe more so as my family is mostly part of the greed culture of the EofC. The Philippines is a culture of sharing.
Makati1 on Fri, 5th Jun 2015 11:04 pm
But, if the insane in Washington have their way, none of us may last the decade out.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/us-officials-consider-nuclear-strikes-against-russia/5453655
http://www.globalresearch.ca/western-news-media-as-tyrannys-propagandists-hiding-reality/5453705
Mushroom (clouds) for breakfast?
And the nuclear beat goes on…
Duck & Cover!
Davy on Sat, 6th Jun 2015 5:14 am
OOh, just as I suspected Mak you are touchy about denial of death! I gather that from your reaction in your comment. I admitted to a halving of my life expectancy in a collapse you still hang on to a normal expectancy. Who’s delusional Mak? I guess because you are already 70 the stakes are higher for you. I am already 50. 20 Years means allot at our age.
I like the family put down Mak. Obviously your family does not rank high if your Philippines friends are ranked higher. My family is at the top of my list and I would never desert them. That is not what a patriarch does. He defends and provides for his family. But you are obvious to cowardly than that.
Makster, on the subject of your survivability or mine I am with Revi “Everyone thinks it’s better somewhere else, but in reality we’re all going down together.” I probably am in more danger from NUK war I admit that but on the food front, come on Mak, numbers don’t lie. Your Philippines is 100MIL people in a space the size of Arizona. You live in a city with 12MIL you may not be able to get out of quickly. I live in a county with 15 thousand and a state with 6MIL. That 6MIL is in an area half the size of your Philippines.
I feel in the coming collapse the key will come down to food security and population density. I feel a long turn sustainability of a Missouri population without fossil fuels is probably 2MIL. That is a big difference from 6. The Philippines long term sustainable population is likely 10MIL. That is 10 times less Mak. That is a scary drop.
To be fair Makster, NUK war is a big concern that you are correct about. More than ever I have the fear of this with this crazy cold war happening now. I just saw that the US is thinking of medium range missiles in Europe. Just another escalation and what a crazy move by the psychopaths in DC. Mak, global NUK war surely will mean NUK winter. A NUK winter will likely not be survivable for you either.
Mak, read what I said above then read your comment. Do you see the difference? Mine is fair and balanced yours in part of an agenda of I am fine, all is well in Asia, and you are screwed in the US. Mak, that is denial plain and simple. Like Revi said we all face dangers of a collapsing global world.