Peak Oil is You
Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)
Page added on August 11, 2018
Peak oil went in the barrel — now the debate is over peak oil demand
When I started writing this column here a decade ago, I laid down several markers that might shove us sideways. Long before the word became a tech commonplace, I called the sum of these trends the Great Disruption.
One was peak oil.
This didn’t mean “the world about to run out of oil.”
Instead, it was shorthand for the point when we had burned half of the petroleum in the planet, and the other half would be harder and more costly to discover, extract and refine. At the same time, demand was rising higher than ever.
The concept was first developed by Shell geophysicist M. King Hubbert, who accurately predicted the U.S. peak in the 1970s. By the 2000s, peak oil was hardly a crank theory. Many of the “elephant fields” were past their prime years. Major oil companies were discussing it, too. The debate was over when that peak would hit.
Then came unconventional means of production (tar sands) and technological breakthroughs (fracking) that produced a relative gusher. Prices dropped dramatically in 2014. By last year, U.S. crude production was close to the 1970 high.
I’m very willing to say I was wrong about peak oil. Although an old saw about columnists is that they are “frequently wrong but rarely in doubt,” I want to get it right.
Better to follow John Maynard Keynes, who when confronted by a man demanding to know why he had done an about-face on a certain position, reputedly said, “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?”
But the situation is more complicated.
Even though President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the Paris climate accords, 194 nations and the EU are still parties. Many are seriously moving ahead. A combination of public policies, corporate pushes and technological advances in green energy is making assumptions about oil use shaky.
Earlier this month, the British asset manager Sarasin & Partners published a report questioning whether big oil companies were overstating their long-term assumptions about oil prices and corporate performance. It was based on a review of financial statements from eight European-based oil companies, including Shell and BP.
“We believe there may be a problem of systemic overstatement of capital and profits linked to overly optimistic long-term oil price assumptions that fail to take account of the international commitment to phase out fossil fuels,” the report states.
Now insiders are talking about peak oil demand. With electric vehicles, better fuel efficiency and renewables, Bank of America earlier this year predicted that it could happen in 2030, a decade or two before the major oil companies expect.
Of course, electric cars and even solar and wind energy require plenty of fossil-fuel “inputs” for their manufacture or, in the case of vehicles, their ultimate power source. But despite the fierce efforts of the administration — and it will hold us back — we’re not returning to the circa-1960s paradigm.
Oil was always a growth industry. That’s possibly coming to an end sooner than the boosters would have you believe.
A second caution is that the oil business is famously unpredictable. Prices fell dramatically in mid-decade, but now are rising. Brent crude was about $73 a barrel last week, up about $30 from three years ago.
This is already crimping the profits of transportation companies. See another rise of $10 or $20 a barrel and the economy could get mauled. Not enough peak-demand options and efficiencies are online. And considerable debate remains about when peak demand will hit.
Sure, higher prices make such sources as low-output stripper wells viable again, but it takes time to get the upstream downstream, as they say in the “awl bidness.” In other words, ultimately to the gas pump.
But in the near term, according to the International Energy Agency, production gains from the United States alone will cover 80 percent of global growth in demand. Canada, Brazil and Norway can handle the rest. OPEC has lost its commanding heights.
The facts change and I change my mind.
But it doesn’t give me peace of mind.
The biggest disruption I worried about 10 years ago was climate change. That’s turned out to be more severe than feared, happening faster than scientists anticipated, and in large part a consequence of burning fossil fuels.
When future generations look back and curse us for our inaction, they will also note how such innovations as fracking were among the worst events to befall us. And don’t forget those nice, progressive Canadians with their environmentally disastrous tar sands.
More abundant oil convinced many Americans that they could go on with the “lifestyle” of happy motoring, sprawl and trips to Walmart — and people in developing nations wanted to emulate us. And that we could slow-walk investments in transit — even in supposedly progressive Seattle — and high-speed passenger rail (hey, Elon Musk would save us!).
All the while, temperatures kept rising, forests burned, weather became more extreme, sea levels rose, species died off. The storm of catastrophe gathered. Peak oil demand can’t come fast enough, but it may be too slow to avert the worst.
It is a genuine existential crisis. God, if only I had been wrong there.
34 Comments on "Peak oil went in the barrel — now the debate is over peak oil demand"
Cloggie on Sat, 11th Aug 2018 5:42 am
I’m completely behind this story. I believed in peakoil until december 2012, than slowly distanced myself from that superstition. There is too much, not too little. It is a race against time to arrive at peak oil demand as soon as possible.
Perhaps WW3 will come to the rescue, or perhaps, unintentionally, Kunstler’s Golden Golem of Greatness will surpass “Paris” by initiating a conflict that will take out all oil refining infrastructure in the Gulf, changing the Trumpet into the world’s climate change fighter #1.
Yo!
wm-scott on Sat, 11th Aug 2018 7:09 am
Human stupidity still hasn’t peaked yet apparently. I just can’t understand how any one can believe there will always be enough oil to keep things running at an affordable price. Everyday I see more cracks in the world and people in general think everything is fine, while we repeat history leading up to World War II. Just one little bump in the middle east and oil goes through the roof. I will predict that if things hold together long enough for declining global oil production to be a problem, they will start throwing countries out of the lifeboat by cutting off oil shipments to the third world and any one they see as a problem.
Bob Jonesme th on Sat, 11th Aug 2018 8:41 am
America is like a car that is slowly breaking down.
It is still moving, but not as fast, nor as smoothly as when it was in top shape.
The engine is knocking, the brakes are squealing (so you don’t want to slow down), the tires are not gripping the road, and the AC stopped long ago.
You are afraid if anything causes the American machine to stop (war/embargo/food-infrastructure failure), it may not start again.
Who is going to fix America when it needs to go to the shop? (China? UK/Europe? Russia? Saudi Arabia? Canada?)
fmr-paultard on Sat, 11th Aug 2018 8:49 am
bobtard, please america gone through worse. go here and plug in us vs rest of the world
https://countryeconomy.com/countries/compare/usa/philippines
Davy on Sat, 11th Aug 2018 8:51 am
“Who is going to fix America when it needs to go to the shop? (China? UK/Europe? Russia? Saudi Arabia? Canada?)”
Bob, if you ever been to other countries then you would realize your question is emotional and not rational. It is more like the world and who is going to fix the planet
Cloggie on Sat, 11th Aug 2018 8:56 am
“Who is going to fix America when it needs to go to the shop? (China? UK/Europe? Russia? Saudi Arabia? Canada?)”
America’s mother.
fmr-paultard on Sat, 11th Aug 2018 9:06 am
i agree with supertard but if i may differ a little, who is america gonna fix? the answer is NO. no more nation building
MASTERMIND on Sat, 11th Aug 2018 9:11 am
I emailed this writer and sent him my dump of peak oil links..He never replied..I don’t understand how people can think that shale produced in just one country can make up for the entire worlds declining conventional supplies..
https://imgur.com/a/rBtIrfg
GetAVasectomyAndLetTheHumanSpecieVanish on Sat, 11th Aug 2018 9:18 am
If you Turkey collapse and become chaotic. Turkey population will migrate to Europe. People in the Middle-East will migrate toward Europe using Turkey as migration route.
This mass migration process will create racial conflict through Europe. Europe will collapse like Venezuela. Constant racial conflict, intermittent electricity, fuel shortage and penury.
The collapse of Europe mean the collapse of Western civilization. The human race will lose technical Knowledge, like how to design airplane, technical data on how to designing air plane wings, waster treatment station and so on. This lost of technical data will bring back the human race to hunter and gather tribal society.
off. I might actually see it
Duncan Idaho on Sat, 11th Aug 2018 9:29 am
Haven’t done much traveling, have we?
Lets see what the price of oil is at the end of the year– it might be bring some insight.
GetAVasectomyAndLetTheHumanSpecieVanish on Sat, 11th Aug 2018 9:52 am
This is a two month old video about Turkey.
Turkey situation seem to have gone worst sence then
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYkyOxiAjkw
BobInget on Sat, 11th Aug 2018 9:58 am
Not so fast.
IEA
Highlights (10 August 2018)
*Please note that these Highlights are from the latest Oil Market Report, which is released in full to subscribers only – according to this schedule each month. Non subscribers get free access to the latest Highlights on this schedule, however the full Oil Market Report is released to the public two weeks after the report is released to subscribers. If you would like to receive the full report with accompanying charts and graphs on the day of publication please subscribe or contact the subscription manager.
Following strong demand growth in 1Q18, in 2Q18 and 3Q18 the pace has slowed dramatically to a relatively subdued 1 mb/d. In 4Q18 we expect a rebound and demand will be 100.2 mb/d.
For 2018, our global demand growth outlook is unchanged at 1.4 mb/d. In 2019 growth accelerates slightly to 1.5 mb/d, but there are risks to the forecast from escalating trade disputes and rising prices if supply is constrained.
Global oil supply rose by 300 kb/d in July to 99.4 mb/d, 1.1 mb/d above a year-ago. Compliance with the Vienna Agreement eased to 97% in July as output cuts were relaxed. Non-OPEC production is expected to grow by 2 mb/d in 2018 and by 1.85 mb/d next year.
OPEC crude oil output was steady in July, at 32.18 mb/d. An unexpected decline in Saudi Arabian supply was offset by higher production from the UAE, Kuwait and Nigeria. OPEC compliance was unchanged in July at 121%.
OECD commercial stocks fell seasonally by 7.2 mb in June to 2 823 mb and were 32 mb below the five-year average. Stocks at the end of 2Q18 were up 6.6 mb versus end-1Q18, the first quarterly increase seen since 1Q17. Outside the OECD, inventories were also mostly higher during the quarter.
ICE Brent prices fell in July on higher global output, while NYMEX WTI prices rose on strong US refining and exports. Both benchmarks are up 50% y-o-y. The Brent/WTI differential in July narrowed sharply versus June.
Global refinery throughputs in 2H18 are expected to be 2 mb/d higher than in 1H18. Due to high summer demand, refined products stocks will draw before building again in 4Q18. The outlook will be heavily influenced by Iranian crude flows and resulting changes to crude prices and margins.
Cooling down
As suggested in last month’s Report, the northern hemisphere summer has proved to be anything but quiet. Record high temperatures are causing various disruptions: low water levels in the Rhine are hampering barge traffic, refinery operations are impacted in certain locations, warm water is affecting nuclear power plants, and air-conditioning demand is soaring. Record temperatures are unlikely to influence significantly road and air transport demand one way or the other as holiday plans were typically made many weeks or months ago, but the sunny weather might provide a short-lived, modest boost. New data will show us in due course.
Meanwhile, concerns about the stability of oil supply have cooled down somewhat, at least for now. We have seen increases in production, mainly in Saudi Arabia and Russia, a surge in US exports in June that saw a record weekly average level of 3 mb/d, and a partial, but fragile, recovery in Libya. Ample supply has contributed to the Brent price falling from just over $79/bbl at the end of June to below $72/bbl earlier this week. This cooling down in prices is clearly welcome for consumers: the biggest single product market in the world is US gasoline and the national average price increase seen during the spring seems to have stalled for the time being.
With so much focus on geopolitics in recent months, underlying demand trends have perhaps received less attention but there are interesting developments. As far as growth is concerned, the global number for 2018 looks solid for now at 1.4 mb/d. However, this is heavily influenced by demand in 1Q18 when growth was more than 1.8 mb/d, mainly due to low temperatures in the northern hemisphere. As we move through 2Q18 and 3Q18, growth is estimated at only 1 mb/d, partly due to comparisons with high year-ago demand levels and because prices (based on Brent crude) have typically been about 45% higher. In OECD Europe, oil demand fell below last year’s level in 2Q18, and in the US falling gasoline demand has contributed to more than the halving of total demand growth in 2Q18 versus 1Q18. The two leading non-OECD oil markets, China and India, both remain on course to grow solidly this year, although data issues with respect to China cloud the picture to some extent. As mentioned in recent editions of this Report, some developing countries are taking steps to shield consumers from higher prices. An example is Indonesia where plans are being made to increase sharply subsidies to maintain diesel and gasoline prices at current levels.
For 2019 demand growth, we have actually revised our outlook slightly upwards by 110 kb/d, partly influenced by the downward move of the forward price curve. Even so, there are considerable uncertainties. The risks to stable supply that will grow later this year could cause higher prices and thus impact demand growth. Another factor to consider is that trade tensions might escalate and lead to slower economic growth, and in turn lower oil demand. Trade tensions partly explain why the International Monetary Fund, in its recent World Economic Outlook Update, said, “The balance of [economic] risks has shifted further to the downside, including in the short term”. For now, we have made no changes to our underlying economic and oil demand assumptions, but we are mindful that demand growth could cool down later this year and into 2019. If this does happen, it might dampen to some extent the impact on prices of any supply pressures.
The recent cooling down of the market, with short term supply tensions easing, currently lower prices, and lower demand growth might not last. When we publish our next report in mid-September, we will be only six weeks away from the US’s deadline for Iran’s customers to cease oil purchases. As oil sanctions against Iran take effect, perhaps in combination with production problems elsewhere, maintaining global supply might be very challenging and would come at the expense of maintaining an adequate spare capacity cushion. Thus, the market outlook could be far less calm at that point than it is today.
https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/
In a nutshell demand in 4th qtr. 100.2mm bbl. p/d. Supply rose in July to 99.4mm bbl. p/d 1.1mm bbl. p/d above a year ago. That was a month of relatively quiet geopolitics. Permian basin shale just reached the take away bottlenecks in July. Demand will grow by 1.5mm bbl. p/d in 2019. As SLB and other have stated there is over 3 yrs. of insufficient CAPEX. There are 15 oil producing countries with declining production. NOC’s have had increasing demand on their revenues for their populaces. There is concern that the robust years of intense EOR in the worlds legacy fields to keep production flat to up may lead to cliff like declines in some of these.
We will be drawing 800m bbl. p/d in the 4th qtr. from inventories. Demand will grow by 1.5mm bbl. p/d on average in 2019. Insufficient pipeline takeaway in the Permian which has been by far the leader in WW production growth will not be alleviated until late 2019. Canadian oil production, the 2nd. largest contributor to WW production growth has also been restricted by lack of pipeline capacity. Canadian producers have been relying on rail increases which are been hampered by lack of equipment.
Dependence on OPEC and Russia will increase in 2019. Brazil will add production which will be a help. It will be interesting to see what ROBEC can do or have we seen the GCC capacity during the market share wars? Barring a WW recession caused by trade tensions and/or banking issues oil prices will rise in 2019.
GetAVasectomyAndLetTheHumanSpecieVanish on Sat, 11th Aug 2018 10:01 am
Notice the mention of Argentina, Brazil, Turkey
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZbiD7HPUTTU
Yeah, everything is fine and well
GetAVasectomyAndLetTheHumanSpecieVanish on Sat, 11th Aug 2018 10:27 am
Race/Ideological (Left vs right) tension everywhere in the western world
Europe :https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wp1OGOZ1sSw
usa: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-11/trump-condemns-all-types-racism-ahead-unite-right-rally
Canada: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cSZhjuOaRQ
MASTERMIND on Sat, 11th Aug 2018 10:28 am
I emailed this writer and showed him my dump of links..And here is what he said..
“I agree. I don’t believe I wrote it was debunked, only I was premature in my immediate concern.”
Jon Talton
Economics Columnist
The Seattle Times
206-795-5676
Twitter: @jontalton
Bob Inget on Sat, 11th Aug 2018 10:34 am
Drought… Exceptional Heat… Fires… Flooding…
In Oregon, Northern California, we are spending billions fighting fires. Labor, diesel, aircraft, Jet fuels make up bulk of expenditures.
32,000 person crews from every Western European & US State have flown in to fight these fires. Just flying in back-up and support for over 32,000 firefighters is a major effort.
Rebuilding efforts, climate change remediation,
rising tides. All, huge FF consumers.
Not a word from IEA about how climate INCREASED liquid fuels consumption.
Even W/O fires, NG, coal, consumption, greater
making electrical power. The worst part?
No end in sight.
In this hemisphere we should pay attention to
whats going down in Australia as a reasonable predictor.
http://theconversation.com/recent-australian-droughts-may-be-the-worst-in-800-years-94292
Cloggie on Sat, 11th Aug 2018 12:45 pm
Myth exposed: “too many e-vehicles will bring down the grid”.
It won’t.
https://www.energiezukunft.eu/mobilitaet/es-gibt-genug-strom-fuer-alle-elektroautos/
New study shows that if 40% would be e-vehicles (Germany: 18 million), this fleet would consume 6.5% of all electricity, a consumption level the current grid can handle.
MASTERMIND on Sat, 11th Aug 2018 1:37 pm
clogg
Nobody wants a stupid EV..You can’t even take one out of the city..You are a fucking moron who spreads fake news..Because you have to..Its sad and cringy..
Why don’t you go shave your neckbeard so maybe a woman will like you..Instead of being a basement dweller and nazi psychopath .
MASTERMIND on Sat, 11th Aug 2018 1:44 pm
New Zealand to ban foreigners from buying houses after a spending splurge by millionaires seeking doomsday bolt-holes crowded out local buyers and pushed up property prices.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceania/new-zealand-to-ban-foreigners-from-buying-homes-20180811-p4zwwi.html
MASTERMIND on Sat, 11th Aug 2018 1:46 pm
I read that Peter Theil that tech billionaire..Buit a doomsday mansion in NZ that has it’s own “panic room” inside it..
MASTERMIND on Sat, 11th Aug 2018 2:08 pm
The rich get richer, and millennials miss out
More than half of global wealth is owned by the top 1%
BUOYANT financial markets meant that global wealth rose by 6.4% in the 12 months to June, the fastest pace since 2012. And the ranks of the rich expanded again, with 2.3m new millionaires added to the total, according to the Credit Suisse Research Institute’s global wealth report.
The report underlines the sharp divide between the wealthy and the rest. If the world’s wealth were divided equally, each household would have $56,540. Instead, the top 1% own more than half of all global wealth. The median wealth per household is just $3,582; if you own more than that, you are in the richest 50% of the world’s population.
America continues to dominate the ranks of millionaires with 43% of the global total. Both Japan and Britain had fewer dollar millionaires than they did in June 2016, thanks to declines in the yen and sterling. Emerging economies have been catching up in the millionaire stakes; they now have 8.4% of the global total, up from 2.7% in 2000.
In the 12 months covered by the report, the biggest proportionate gains in wealth occurred in Poland, Israel and South Africa, thanks to a combination of stockmarket and currency gains. Egypt is by far the biggest loser, having lost almost half its wealth in dollar terms. Switzerland is still the country with the highest mean and median wealth per person.
There is a wide generational gap: millennials (those who reached adulthood in the current millennium) have a lot of catching up to do in the wealth stakes. Americans currently aged between 30 and 39 years of age are calculated to have amassed 46% less wealth on average in 2017 than the equivalent cohort had gathered in 2007.
Higher student debts and the difficulty of getting on the housing ladder have made it harder for millennials to build a nest-egg. That disparity might come back to bite the baby-boomer generation, who are fast moving into retirement. When baby-boomers want to cash in their assets, they may find millennials can’t afford to buy them at current prices.
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2017/11/16/the-rich-get-richer-and-millennials-miss-out
Cloggie on Sat, 11th Aug 2018 2:28 pm
“Nobody wants a stupid EV..You can’t even take one out of the city..”
Despite what you might love to think, but the US is no longer the technological center of the world:
https://money.cnn.com/2017/09/11/autos/countries-banning-diesel-gas-cars/index.html
A direct consequence of the US judeo-left to hand over the keys of the US to the third world.
How many years again do you plan for your transition? Ah yes, 130 years.See?
MASTERMIND on Sat, 11th Aug 2018 3:06 pm
Clogg
Making bans way down the road is meaningless..We won’t even be alive by then you moron..
https://imgur.com/a/pYxKa
Antius on Sat, 11th Aug 2018 3:38 pm
A return of the airship?
https://umanitoba.ca/faculties/management/ti/media/docs/AA04_airship_large1.pdf
Some years back, I investigated the possibility of using rigid airships for long-distance passenger transport. Using modern polymer composites and maraging steels, the dead weight of a modern rigid airship would be substantially lower than the Hindenburg, meaning far more passengers. The energy cost of transport by such an airship would be comparable to rail. The most suitable fuel would be liquefied natural gas.
The undoing of the idea is the low speed of an airship ~100kph. Not only does this make it less desirable to an aeroplane from the point of view of passenger time; it also means that an airship delivers fewer passenger miles over its operating life. Unless oil prices are very high, the greater capital and operating costs of a rigid airship overwhelms any cost savings from reduced fuel use. Safety issues also present a problem.
onlooker on Sat, 11th Aug 2018 3:55 pm
Even if you could build out a mass production line of EV’s why? For a Civilization in fast decline as resource shortages get worse, social ills get worse, inequality gets worse and yes FF resources get worse. Not to mention the bill for AGW related disasters skyrockets. The point being you are not going to have a Civilization that needs EV cars or any cars, because you are not going to have any Civilization by any way you wish to define it. And then it gets worse environmental calamities being the final nail in the coffin of us humans. If it helps you sleep at night dream on Clog. Dream on.
peakyeast on Sat, 11th Aug 2018 3:59 pm
The reason for making bans on diesel and gasoline cars – is because electrical cars are not attractive. I would love an electric car provided it gave me 1000km/charge and the battery didnt wear out or degrade in a 20 year life span no matter how I treat it.
I think those are fair requirements – I havent even put a short time limit on the charging.
As it is now the battery technology is not attractive at all. Not even close. An improvement factor of 8 to current batteries is what I want to consider buying electric.
Oh and I want it secondhand for 2000$ – like my Lupo 3L.
Mark Ziegler on Sat, 11th Aug 2018 5:06 pm
I have been trying to estimate the amount of oil required for an annual additional vehicles per year. I outlined my math on a napkin which needs polishing. I anyone can see my errors please let me know.
What is the increase of oil needed to supply an annual increase of 17 million new vehicles sold per year.
17 million new cars yearly.
170,000,000 gallons of gas assuuming 10 gallons of gas a week.
Divide by 20 gallons to get to number of barrels of oil 8,500,000 barreles a week
In 2017, of the approximately 7.3 billion barrels of total U.S. petroleum consumption, 47% was motor gasoline (includes ethanol), 20% was distillate fuel (heating oil and diesel fuel), and 8% was jet fuel. Learn more: What is the difference between crude oil, petroleum products, and petroleum?Apr 6, 2018
In 2017, refineries in the United States produced an average of about 20 gallons of motor gasoline and about 11 gallons of ultra-low sulfur distillate fuel oil (most of which is sold as diesel fuel and in several states as heating oil) from one 42-gallon barrel of crude oil.
Divide by 7 to get daily barrels of oil increase from introducing 17 million new vehicles a year. 1,214,285 barrels of oil a day to supply 10 gallons of gas a week to new vehicles.
Every year assuming sales of 17 million vehicles oil demand increases by 1,214,285 barrels of oil a day (10 gallons of gas a week)
MASTERMIND on Sat, 11th Aug 2018 5:50 pm
Ten years left to redesign lithium-ion batteries
Reserves of cobalt and nickel used in electric-vehicle cells will not meet future demand.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05752-3?utm_source=twt_na&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=NNPnature&error=cookies_not_supported&code=513b3e0d-37e5-4dfe-bac6-81c551f8bc1d
MASTERMIND on Sat, 11th Aug 2018 5:53 pm
Onlooker
Cloggs dream will quickly turn into a nightmare real soon..In a few years he will learn why the media was distracting him with anti immigrant propaganda..
Permavillage on Sat, 11th Aug 2018 8:05 pm
Peakoil is a fact. Just have to watch some graphics and any child would understand it. Many countries have reached peakoil and more are reaching it. Regions like the EU27 has reached it, and recently Asia-Pacific has reached it. Global peakoil should be reached 2021-2025 so I can’t see how peak oil demand could have any effect on our energy problems.
twocats on Sat, 11th Aug 2018 8:40 pm
the reason chug-a-lug can be so glib about it is clear from his first post on this thread: he thinks even if the world is set to take a major hit from peak oil it won’t affect him and his gay life of drugs in amsterdam – he believes that he is immune from disaster by the power of whiteness and that all ills will fall upon Arab and Persian heads. we can only hope he dies of radiation poisoning from French nuclear facility fallout.
Cloggie on Sun, 12th Aug 2018 4:01 am
I have been trying to estimate the amount of oil required for an annual additional vehicles per year. I outlined my math on a napkin which needs polishing. I anyone can see my errors please let me know.
There you go. Major error: assuming the continuation of the old car model. There is an entirely new mode of transport waiting around the corner, a model several advanced nations are currently persuading: shared, autonomous car (van):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y2X1ehdJQSI
Old mode: privately owned, 5-seater sedan with average occupation rate of 1.25 and operational during 2-3% of the total time. A GIANT WASTE.
New mode: fleet of 9-seater corporate-owned autonomous driving vans, enabled by total location-aware smart-phones and Galileo 1 cm precision. Occupation rate, say 5-6, operational, say 25% of the time or more (commercial planes are more in the air than that they are on the ground). If you add this up you can achieve the same transportation effort with a global van fleet of 50 million, rather than the current 1 billion cars. The reduction in transportation fuel and fleet embedded energy would be enormous. It would crash the oil industry. And car industry.
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/05/16/by-2030-you-wont-own-a-car/
Cloggie on Sun, 12th Aug 2018 4:05 am
persuading=pursuing
Antius on Sun, 12th Aug 2018 4:14 am
Permavillage; crude oil, condensate & deepwater peaked back in 2005.
http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Liquids-Supply.jpg
Since then, all demand growth has been met by lower quality resources, that are much more expensive to produce. The huge surge in debt since then is an attempt to keep things going. We are now closing in on the end game.