Peak-oil theory and its development implications

Denying the idea that Middle East oilfields are getting old and might soon go into decline has become an article of faith in local oil circles. But re-reading the controversial main text of the peak-oil theorists should perhaps be required by regional economic planners. The most controversial book of the decade concerning the Middle East is not to do with religion or terrorism. It is Matthew Simmons book ‘Twilight in the Desert: the coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy’.

But in his conclusion Mr. Simmons outlines a likely scenario that would follow such a change in production output. Oil prices would soar, challenging economic growth in consumer countries but protecting oil producing countries from the impact of falling revenues.

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