Peak Oil is You
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Page added on February 18, 2013
Peak Oil: The Transition
An observation worth noting … and pondering, from Richard Heinberg:
The great transition of the 21st century will entail enormous adjustments on the part of every individual, family, and community, and if we are to make those adjustments successfully, we will need to plan rationally. Implications and strategies will have to be explored in nearly every area of human interest—agriculture, transportation, global ware and peace, public health, resource management, and on and on. Books, research studies, television documentaries, and every other imaginable form of information transferal (sic) will be required to convey needed knowledge in each of these areas. [1]
As I’ve noted on numerous occasions (see this, for example), the Happy Talk about our surging production and a new energy revolution and energy independence at last, yadda, yadda, yadda is nonetheless subject to reality, facts, and evidence. As that referenced post of mine explains (with informative links worth reviewing), the exuberance some cling to desperately to ward off the truth that the touted shale/tight oil extravaganza is not quite the bonus careless urgings suggest.
And since we are (unfortunately) not likely going to be experiencing the bliss of more seemingly limitless supplies of oil to power us into the future under Business As Usual scenarios, we’re going to have come up with some different strategies and certainly a lot more plans a lot sooner by a lot more involved citizens for a lot more reasons in a lot more aspects of life as we know it.
No Peak Oil proponent delights in the prospects. No one wants to deal with such an apparently distant potential problem as some make it out to be. Understood. Human behavior is human behavior. But when the customary approaches of postponement and/or denial serve as the basic plan of action (i.e., doing nothing, ignoring facts, and hoping for the best), it’s time for all of us to consider more carefully—on our own—just what is at stake.
With that appreciation, more of us step to the plate and offer our own contributions in developing a more reasoned and practical strategy for a future which cannot and will not depend on the same fossil fuel resources we’ve all taken for granted for so long. Ceding that responsibility to others is no longer the fall-back position.
Do we want to have some say in how our future unfolds? Isn’t being prepared the wiser course?
20 Comments on "Peak Oil: The Transition"
dave thompson on Mon, 18th Feb 2013 9:02 pm
YES!
GregT on Mon, 18th Feb 2013 9:23 pm
Agricultural food production alone has the potential to turn our cities into bloodbaths.
Too many people living in close proximity with not enough arable land within walking or cycling distance, will not end well at all. Urban life as we know it will end, and it will end sooner than most realize.
We either move to the land that can support us or fight over the food on the land that can’t.
Time is running out, what will you do?
Arthur on Mon, 18th Feb 2013 9:27 pm
Talking about the transition:
http://solarlove.org/german-solar-pv-price-down-to-e1-52-per-watt/
Look how solar PV prices have come down in Germany: 1.52 euro / watt ($2.00)
There is no reason at all to despair (too much) with the energy situation, 3,000 euro for a 2,000 watt installation that lasts 25-30 years. An average household is prepared to pay 20-40k for a car that is written off in 10 years. The difference with the PV-system is that it pays itself back.
GregT on Mon, 18th Feb 2013 9:54 pm
I was just quoted 30k for an installation on my home. The copper wiring alone was over 2k.
GregT on Mon, 18th Feb 2013 9:57 pm
Oh, and the system on my RV is 160 watts. It cost just over $2500 installed. The batteries alone were $800.
Arthur on Mon, 18th Feb 2013 10:56 pm
http://zonnemarkt.nl/zonnepanelen/
IanC on Tue, 19th Feb 2013 12:14 am
Uh, guys, the solar stuff is nice, but you can’t eat it. It’s better to have lights on if it helps you see the food you’re going to eat.
I just finally got around to seeing the movie Contagion. The scenes of riots over food once people have been hungry for a couple weeks were starting when seen through the lens of Peak Oil.
GregT on Tue, 19th Feb 2013 12:44 am
IanC,
Exactly what I am talking about.
Food production should be first priority. I already have that one figured out.
Water, check.
Shelter, still looking for the right high efficiency pellet/ wood stove.
Security, good neighbours with community ties, firearms, ammunition, training, check.
PV, definitely not necessary but a nicety that I would prefer to have, especially for refrigeration. Already have several small systems for charging batteries etc.
GregT on Tue, 19th Feb 2013 1:02 am
Arthur,
For PV, are you talking about grid tied?
In BC it is not worth it, it would take a lifetime to pay for itself. Off grid is different, the reason for doing so is self sufficiency. When you start to add up the parts it becomes very expensive. We do not have the best sun here, so a large battery bank is imperative, add inverters, chargers, conditioners, breaker panels, wiring, a battery cabinet, and a system easily runs in the tens of thousands of dollars, depending on where exactly you live and what you want to power.
The quote I received was for 30k installed, DC pointed out a better battery technology, Ni-Fe. I looked into this and it would add another 10k to the price. The system would be good for 30 plus years, as long as I would need, most likely.
BillT on Tue, 19th Feb 2013 3:14 am
Arthur is in the tech business, so he is just defending his income stream, like SOS. You ALWAYS have to look at who writes the paycheck of article writers. ALWAYS. Goes for comments also. As I was in construction and now retired, I have nothing to sell, just my educated opinions.
Arthur on Tue, 19th Feb 2013 9:16 am
Greg, yes I am talking to a grid tied system:
http://zonnemarkt.nl/zonnestroomsystemen/systeem-3000-watt/
4250 euro for the hardware + 1229 euro for a 3000 watt installation, no storage. So more suitable for crowded, integrated Europe than your situation. But this particular add shows that you can have prices as low as 1 euro/watt. Europe is ready for massive solar, as Germany, Italy, Spain and Czech Republic already have shown. All it needs is ‘incentives’, like a government telling its citizens and companies that they are responsible for say 30% of their own local electricity generation before 2020.
Arthur on Tue, 19th Feb 2013 9:43 am
“Arthur is in the tech business, so he is just defending his income stream, like SOS.”
Even if I were (I am not), what are your **arguments** against massive adoption of solar with the prices given above? Or is it too hard for you to admit that your role as a would-be 21st century Spengler is a little premature?
IanC: “Uh, guys, the solar stuff is nice, but you can’t eat it. It’s better to have lights on if it helps you see the food you’re going to eat.”
Here is a summary of a study carried out by the German army, that is perfectly peak-oil aware. There is a lot to worry about, but not about food-security in the West:
http://energyskeptic.com/2011/german-military-peak-oil-summary/
Scroll down half way for a global food security map. So cheer up, we might be unemployed, broke, disposessed from our homes, immobile because of lack of fuel, but hey, we will not be hungry! Just stay away from Africa, India, Colombia, SE-Asia and the Philipines and you will be fine.
Arthur on Tue, 19th Feb 2013 12:46 pm
Greg, looked at BC… twice France, only 4 million people. Pictures look like (tourist) paradise, a real dream from a Dutch perspective, where we have nothing but boring agricultural land and a few % ‘nature’. France is considered to have a low density of population, but BC has even 30 times less. But… poverty is in the wilderness, wealth is where large concentrations of people are (in case of energy abundance). Why not Victoria (80,000) if Vancouver (600,000) is too big for you?
GregT on Tue, 19th Feb 2013 3:31 pm
Vancouver’s population may be 600K, but the lower mainland has over 2.5 M. It is bordered by the US border to the south, the mountains to the north and the east, and the Pacific Ocean to the west. There are only two roads out without having to go through the US, and one of them doesn’t really go anywhere.
Victoria is nice but has some of the same issues as the lower mainland, first and foremost, not enough agricultural land to support the population. This will be a very big problem in the near future.
There are many very beautiful places in BC, with rich lands and plenty of water and wildlife. In the case of energy, it comes from hydro electric projects, mostly a long way from Vancouver. Better to be closer to the source, than a thousand kilometres away, in a post oil world.
I can assure you that the wilderness is very “wealthy”. I have spent a large part of my life there, and while monetarily you may be right, wealth is not all about money. I think the world is very close to finding this out.
Arthur on Tue, 19th Feb 2013 4:38 pm
I understand, but you were complaining about the high cost of living, so money seems to be an aspect. If you want to go up north as a sort of ‘running to the hills’ to avoid the impact of peak oil, I do not think that will be necessary. BC surely will be one of the best places to survive. I would always prefer a small town over absolute wilderness, but that’s a personal choice. Most of the time I lived in towns of 100k.
GregT on Tue, 19th Feb 2013 5:12 pm
The “town” that I am moving to, has a population of 30,000. My concern is not about the high cost of living, my concern is about the lack of food. It is rapidly getting more expensive, not only because of oil input, but because of water shortages, climatic events, and a rapidly growing population.
It has been widely discussed in our media that the lower mainland can expect 1.5 million more mouths to feed by 2020. This will not end well.
Arthur on Tue, 19th Feb 2013 8:08 pm
I had a vegetable garden of 120 m2 and that enables you to produce a lot. Not sure about the climate in your town… potatoes? Cabage? Beans? Gardening is very easy, just a lot of work (mainly weed picking).
GregT on Tue, 19th Feb 2013 10:33 pm
Raised beds, with covers. No weeds. Greenhouse attached to house for spring and fall. Works well.
Kenz300 on Wed, 20th Feb 2013 1:20 am
Too many people and too few resources…..
If you can not provide for your self you can not provide for a child.
Access to family planning services needs to be available to all that want it.
Endless population growth is a big part of the problem.
Doesnotmatter on Wed, 20th Feb 2013 11:59 am
“Or is it too hard for you to admit that your role as a would-be 21st century Spengler is a little premature?”
“So cheer up, we might be unemployed, broke, disposessed from our homes, immobile because of lack of fuel, but hey, we will not be hungry! Just stay away from Africa, […]and the Philipines and you will be fine.”
That was very funny, thank you Arthur! Not that I don’t appreciate BillT’s comments, you both have a good side of the debate and probably the reality will come somewhere in between, but good (and harmless) humor is a scarce and needed resource these days so it has to be enjoyed.