PEAK OIL: THE END OF THE MODELING PHASE

by A.M. Samsam Bakhtiari

1. Introduction

Modeling for ‘Peak Oil’ began seriously in the mid-1990s as the question of worldwide oil
production reaching a maximum became a matter of widespread concern in some
petroleum circles and academic centers. Among a score of other models, the ‘World Oil
Production Capacity’ [WOCAP] model was developed over the years 1997-2000 [1].
And, even in those early days, the model — based on ‘Ultimate Recoverable Reserves’
[URR] of 1,900 billion barrels estimated by Dr. Colin Campbell — did point towards a
‘Peak’ within the first decade of the 21st century.


2. The WOCAP model

Further design developments and dozens of simulations over the years 2001-2003
resulted in WOCAP’s final ‘Base Case’ scenario that predicted a ‘Peak’ of 81-82 million
barrels per day [mb/d] over the years 2006-2007 (see Figure 1).

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