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Page added on November 18, 2014
Peak Oil: So How Do We Prepare?
The economic effects of peak oil are as obvious as they are frightening. The most immediate effect is to increase oil prices, and this has its own effect of slowing the economy down. There was a period in which Saudi Arabia could modulate the world’s rate of oil production by turning up the flow, but even that is a thing of the past. Oil prices jump up and down in response to rumors and temporary conditions — the worldwide economic slowdown has tamped them down a bit over the past few years — but the overall pattern is a steady price increase, all other things being equal….
We should understand that peak oil has probably already occurred, and we will be spending the rest of our lives, and our children their own lives, dealing with the consequences.
But we avoid the long term relevancies. There was plenty of oil yesterday and there will be enough today to maintain a modest lifestyle, and we all hope that there won’t be another big oil shock very soon….How do we prepare? [1]
A nice summary of where we are, what we face, and a question for which there is not much of an answer at the moment. In and of itself, that’s a problem.
Dispute over facts aside, another problem the author cites is likely to be an even more difficult challenge in our attempts to prepare for a transition away from fossil fuel dependence.
Life is okay today, tomorrow should be fine as well, and given that I have enough to deal with as it is, I can’t worry about some alleged problem that’s who knows how far away.
Who among us hasn’t used that defense or a variation thereof against bad news or looming and unpleasant changes? Quick, convenient, rational at first glance, and not at all unreasonable in the moment.
We are burdened with responsibilities and worries and concerns every waking moment—some much more onerous than others. Who wants to voluntarily add more to the pile? Who wants to voluntarily add more to the pile when it’s not all that pressing an issue today, tomorrow, next week, or next month? Who wants to voluntarily add more to the pile when the scope is well beyond any one person’s capabilities?
It’s not unreasonable to think that most citizens upon learning about the difficulties to be imposed and the impacts of peak oil will assume Someone Else is dealing with it, and we’ll all hear about it in due course. Besides, not everyone is on board with this whole notion of a peak in oil production. Isn’t fracking taking care of all of that?
Anyone think these are unreasonable conversations most of the public is engaged in on the topic, if they are aware of peak oil at all? With a determined effort on the part of many—equipped with very large platforms and loud microphones—to deny the reality of or consequences of peak oil, the hill to be climbed in order to convince the public that the future is going to produce some major changes in Life As We Know It gets steeper each day.
That can be a perfectly good reason to throw in the towel. Who would blame anyone in the face of such seemingly overwhelming obstacles?
The problem: doing so is sure to make the eventualities just a bit worse. Doesn’t seem like such a good option, for one thing, and reality will soon enough be our biggest ally. Not that that’s necessarily of much comfort, but laying the groundwork now can only help later on.
For some of us, that’s a good enough reason to stay the course. More information distributed to more people can only help.
One voice doesn’t have to change the world; it just has to be shared. One step leads to another, and who knows how quickly more steps by more people becomes the norm.
NOTE: no post next week. Enjoy the holiday!
~ My Photo: the Brier Neck neighborhood, Gloucester MA – August 2009
* I invite you to enjoy my two new books [here and here], and to view my other writings at richardturcotte.com
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13 Comments on "Peak Oil: So How Do We Prepare?"
Davy on Tue, 18th Nov 2014 7:02 am
This guy does a good job of summing up the PO situation. I would take it further and add in the systematic human side especially in regards to our all-important financial system. PO and our financial problems go hand in hand just as a car needs gas and gas needs a car to have meaning. PO is the gas and our financial system is the car. The author says we likely are past PO. I would add we are likely past financial stability. It is the combination of the two with all the other problems that make up a summation of predicaments into one predicament of BAU.
The biggest question now for me is not if we will collapse to something post BAU but when. Time has a quality like no other. This is especially true for humans because we live in the future with our desires and aspirations but we are short term with our living. Life is just too complex to get wrapped up in long term planning more than short term living. We are also told by some very smart people to live in the moment and enjoy the now. What is a mammal with a large brain to do?
I find the most important part of dooming PO and financial collapse is when is this going to happen? I am very much at a loss for a timeframe. I have been as guilty of other doomers in remaining with the 3-5 years. I have been saying this for 8 years now. I feel as time moves on the compression I feel and see is pointing to a near term correction. The all-important degree and duration is there. At what point is a correction a collapse? Will we leave a bumpy plateau of prosperity and move towards a bumpy descent. Will this bumpy descent suffer a drop to something we might consider now a collapse. Will this be Kunstler’s long emergency.
Time is the key here because of the present value humans feel in their lives and in their business. A dollar now is worth more than in 5 years. The same is true of collapse. A collapse in 6 months is going to excite people more than in 5 years. It does not matter the degree it is the nearness that really matters.
I am again preaching crisis. I am redundant. We need a survivable crisis to focus attitudes and change lifestyles. People will change when forced to with immediate survival challenges. Most people will not prepare for a crisis in 5 years. Now is the time for mitigation actions and steps towards adjustments. Anything and everything will be woefully inadequate to what is coming eventually. Yet, time has a way of compounding actions to making a difference. We can call this compounding of interest of time. A little effort now can make a big difference later.
Dredd on Tue, 18th Nov 2014 8:47 am
Two choices: treat the cause or treat the effect.
BAU is to treat the effect and deny the cause.
The cause is burning poisons that poison the earth.
The effect is a dying planet that we live on.
A band-aid on a dying planet is no solution.
Stop the poisoning = treat the cause.
paulo1 on Tue, 18th Nov 2014 9:47 am
It is going to take a huge kick in the ass for people to finally think, let alone act. The sooner the better.
Plantagenet on Tue, 18th Nov 2014 10:36 am
The author is predicting peak oil will usher in an era where oil prices only go up, but the price of oil has collapsed —its down 30%—-from where it was just a few months ago.
This is due to the rapid increase in oil production from the US produced by frakking.
Anontina on Tue, 18th Nov 2014 11:21 am
Or are oil prices being manipulated to keep economies floating?
GregT on Tue, 18th Nov 2014 11:40 am
“but the price of oil has collapsed —its down 30%—-from where it was just a few months ago.”
A fine example of the human being’s inability to remember anything longer than ‘a few months ago’. The price of oil has NOT collapsed. It is still close to triple the price of what it was only eight short years ago. The price that modern industrial society was built on, and relied on for economic growth.
Davy on Tue, 18th Nov 2014 11:44 am
Greg, how’s your head? It sounded like those beers were going down easy yesterday in far off Hawaii. OH, also I saw Hawaii had cold temps last night was that the case?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-17/polar-vortex-20-arrives-all-50-states-will-freeze-tonight
GregT on Tue, 18th Nov 2014 12:32 pm
Davy,
My head has been clearer for sure, but it’s the rest of me that is feeling a bit rough. Too much sun yesterday, and a lack of sleep due to the heat. No polar vortex in Hawaii. 74 degrees at 6 o’clock this morning, and rising…..
Looking forward to a 3 hour drive in an air-conditioned vehicle.
Kenz300 on Tue, 18th Nov 2014 12:39 pm
Climate Change is real……. we can deal with the environmental impacts of fossil fuels now or we will deal with the impact from Climate Change…….
There is not getting away from it….. denial is not an answer…….
—————
Kochs Attack: The Climate • BRAVE NEW FILMS – YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0v1DTp0a10&index=1&list=PLQ9B-p5Q-YOPOJ9sIfgJ5_XRHFz7IatXL&t=3s
Richard Ralph Roehl on Tue, 18th Nov 2014 2:36 pm
So… if there was no peak oil, and the human baboony population continued to exponentially expand its numbers and its cconsumption of planetary resources… ah… er… what would happen to the Earth’s biosphere? To the oceans?
Old Coyote Knose… the United States of Perpetual War Profiteering will not exist by 2050-2060. And by the end of this century, most complex life forms on the surface of the planet will be EXTINCT.
Makati1 on Tue, 18th Nov 2014 7:39 pm
RRR, you are spot on, but maybe a bit optimistic in your time line for the US. I see the US breakup by 2030. I doubt it will survive the coming financial collapse or even the loss of Petrodollar status. Certainly not as a 1st world country. Not that it really is one now. 2nd world at best and heading down.
Kenz300 on Wed, 19th Nov 2014 8:46 am
Prepare for Peak Oil….. buy a bicycle……..
R1verat on Wed, 19th Nov 2014 5:35 pm
It would be great if more articles addressed how to deal with the future. Perhaps this is too much like gazing at a crystal ball but instead of repeating what has already been said previously, wouldn’t it be useful to have articles addressing future scenarios & possibilities?