Peak Oil Passnotes: It’s All About OPEC Stupid, Not

Next week we will see the 10th meeting of the International Energy Forum (IEF) in Doha. It is another one of those interminable political groupings that gets together now and again to tell us how good/bad it all is. Of course you can tell what the main topic of conversation will be, $70-plus oil.

In China, the government is effectively rationing fuel to their own population. By keeping fuel cheap in China, the Chinese refinery industry does not want to sell it to its own people, so they export.

The facts are simple. There is no spare capacity as the crude oil left no one wants. There is terrific uncertainty about almost everything geo-political, about the weather and about the financial system. If everything was priced in, $70 would seem cheap. Yes, we may well see a price crash at some point, but back to what? $55?

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