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Page added on February 23, 2016
Peak Oil: Just A Distraction Pt 3
… [T]here is no intellectually honest way to believe that the world can continue its near-total reliance on fossil fuels for much more than another decade — a paltry window of opportunity. We also know that we cannot wait until they go into decline before reaching for renewables and efficiency, simply because the scale of the challenge is so vast, and the alternatives are starting from such a low level that they will need decades of investment before they are ready to assume the load. The data is clear, and the mathematics are really quite straightforward. [1]
We’re not going to suddenly discover magical amounts of fossil fuel reserves though magical technologies because the Republican Party controls the House and/or because too many of its members are beholden to the industry. Energy resources don’t concern themselves so much with political ideology.
What’s left [and there are still substantial amounts left] is going to be harder to find, extract, and pay for. The quality and quantity will simply not be there in the manner we’ve come to expect. That’s the reality, and those are the facts.
What that means is that in time we’re going to have to make do with less just when we need it all more than ever, and just when millions more have asserted at this same time their needs and demands for the same finite amounts. Party affiliations shouldn’t be expected to change any of that.
The important issue is that no matter what words one uses or how the issues are characterized, the energy supply we’ve long relied upon to power our society to its impressive heights is no longer what it once was.
Just how does the market on its own develop guidelines about what needs to be done, how, when, in what priority, where, and assorted other considerations? The transition away from fossil fuels, if powering the future via any energy sources matters at all, is a nearly-incomprehensible, complex undertaking under ideal circumstances. That’s definitely not a happy news observation, but it’s the reality we have to deal with.
Efforts to mislead the public and/or denying there are looming problems [to say nothing of present ones] is a tactic of questionable integrity and even less value. What kind of wishful thinking is required to think that we’ll just figure something out when we need to for an undertaking of this magnitude?
Is it really a better option to ignore the planning now so that the bigger problems later can be met only with fewer options and resources? I hope no one gets injured when performing the factual, psychological, and emotional gymnastics necessary to make that strategy sound good!
The sooner we all recognize our fossil fuel dependency and the risks it entails, coupled with the need to make better choices now to begin the transition—before it is no longer a choice we own—the better off we’ll all be.
That remains a choice, but it also calls upon those in the know [or who should know] to stop tap-dancing around the realities associated with a finite resource. We’ll need their expertise, and it’s high time they put an end to obstruction and start playing their important role in helping us all adapt to a different future.
5 Comments on "Peak Oil: Just A Distraction Pt 3"
penury on Tue, 23rd Feb 2016 6:47 pm
Humans being human are apparently incapable of long range planning (longer than a week) again with the Hubris, god says nothing bad can ever happen.
rockman on Tue, 23rd Feb 2016 10:29 pm
P = Obviously God is correct. After all he was created in man’s image. And man could not err in that process, would he? LOL.
paulo1 on Wed, 24th Feb 2016 5:27 am
Good article.
Personal note alert:
Tomorrow I will be finished rebuilding my 30 year old Toyota 4X4 PU. It will be like new. In a week I will take it to the body shop to be repainted. It has 300,000 km on it and with a new head and exhaust system it now runs like a sewing machine. (Barely broken in!!) Excellent compression and no oil consumption between changes. I was going to replace the truck, and then decided let’s go for forty or even 50 years of use!! I only use it for construction materials, wood hauling and about 30 boat launches per year. (Maybe it will be like Cuba up here). But the reason for the renewal is quite obvious. This current glut is a blip imho,a spike in the plateau, and I believe we will start winding down in many many areas, soon. Clearly, this frenzy of consumption and economic desperation will one day break down. I am planning to time the eventual parking of my truck to coincide with it. 🙂
I am also still being Dad, trying to set an example for my kids. My youngest is 32 who quit the Oil Sands about 18 months ago…right at the peak. He said to me the other day that it was one of the worst things he did, earning and spending the big money/wages for the last 10 years. He is now making 1/2 of that running his own business, making do with less and sometimes barely getting by. Sometimes, not getting by. I have never seen him happier.
Meanwhile, down in Vancouver, there are new plans afoot to replace the tunnel under the Fraser river with an 8 lane bridge, (4 lanes each way), to bring more commuters and travellers into the city. hmmmm, into a city so congested you cannot find a parking slot. My wife remarked, “My God, the road still funnels down to two lanes. Where will all the cars go when they get into the city”? A few billion dollars in construction, built on goo at sea level, in a subduction earthquake zone, timed to the Peak Oil Plateau, all I wonder is how dumb and short-sighted are our leaders, anyway? (Oh well, I’m just a crackpot living up the coast).
regards
Dubya on Thu, 25th Feb 2016 10:10 am
Paulo.
The Massey replacement is just one of a list of infrastructure that is totally dependant on fossil fuels for the next 50 years to justify it.
Our town is spending another $5 million improving our airport terminal after lengthening the runway 6 years ago (not one airplane since then has needed the extra length). This in a town where the mayor, provincial & federal reps are all peak oil aware.
Imagine if we spend that on solar panels and wind turbines.
Of course we on this site know that those ‘alternatives’ are dependant on fossil fuels so it is better to invest in aviation.
We are stupid.
antaris on Thu, 25th Feb 2016 11:50 am
Paulo never mind the tunnel. A bunch of tower cranes came down not too long ago but still about a dozen are spread around the city building more hi-rise apartments. The real estate people must be making a killing selling to all the asian money running from china. The good thing I guess is a lot of those apartments will sit empty and not contribute to the grid lock.