Peak Oil is Now Official

Mexico’s supergiant Cantarell oilfield is now in decline. Can the rest of the world make up the shortfall?

A recent Kight Ridder article by Kevin Hall points out that world’s number two oilfield, Mexico’s supergiant Cantarell, has peaked.

Cantarell is second only to Saudia Arabia’s Ghawar oilfield and has been pumping millions of barrels of light crude a day since 1976. According to Carlos Morales, production manager for Mexico’s state owned oil company, Pemex, Cantarell’s projected output will be 6 percent lower this year at 1.9 million barrels per day and down to 1.43 million barrels by 2008, the level of production in 2000.

A leaked internal memo from inside Pemex said water and gas were seeping into the massive offshore oil field. Cantarell is showing the signs of peaking.

To make up the decline of Cantarell, Pemex is spending billions to develop new fields such as Chicontepec. This will prove difficult for a company that lost $3.75 billion in 2005, during a time of record high crude prices.

The crude that is first produced from any field is light and sweet, it flows well, and is easy to refine. Not so the later output, and Pemex is faced with spending billions to reconfigure its refineries so they can handle heavier crude.

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