Peak oil is here; we must act

With oil nearing $100 a barrel, I’m writing to announce that the all-time peak of global petroleum production is behind us. It happened in 2006. Once on the downhill slope of the oil production bell curve, supplies will decline about 3 percent annually.

Sustainability analyst Lester Brown released an update recently that ran through the figures: “After climbing from 82.9 million barrels per day in 2004 to 84.15 million barrels per day in 2005, output only increased to 84.8 million barrels per day in 2006 and then declined to 84.62 million barrels per day during the first 10 months of 2007.” Unless some new production comes online soon, the numbers indicate that the peak indeed occurred in 2006.
If 2008 sees 84.2 million barrels per day in oil production and 2009 sees 83.5 million barrels, the peak oil bell curve will be well established.

Much of modern industrialized civilization has been built upon cheap, abundant oil. The food we eat, the products we buy and our transportation are all heavily dependent on oil. The ramifications of a 3 percent annual decline in production are staggering.

Petroleum is highly concentrated. It is estimated that a gallon of gasoline contains more than 100 tons of ancient plant material compressed over time. For this reason (among others) it is naive to believe other sources of energy are going to make up for this shortfall:

The sweeping changes needed to address peak oil and climate change should have begun years ago. We need bold action now.

Register Guard