Peak Oil Futures: UK Scenarios up to 2030

Dr Simon Roberts (ARUP, Associate Director of Foresight, Innovation and Incubator Group)

Dr Roberts’ will speak about his use of the innovative 4see modelling framework, which combines socio, economic and energy aspects of a country in order to formulate physically consistent scenarios 20 years or more into the future. He will present his latest research findings relating to transport and oil supply, and put forward proactive steps the UK could take to reduce its oil dependency.

The 4see methodology draws on analysis of past Gross Domestic Product and other data to identify and explore the impact of various investment choices. A 4see model is data-driven using official statistics, bringing together economic activity, capital stocks, employment, energy, travel and balance of payments. The model is good for taking onboard trends, handling systemic interactions between sectors and identifying “the big stuff that makes a difference”.