Peak Oil: Framing The Issues

‘The way to fix the problem is not to turn the volume up on the evidence.…
‘The way to deal with the problem is to change that meaning, to remove what makes it threatening to other people. It’s about framing it in a way that doesn’t antagonize or come across as an assault on one side.‘ – Dan Kahan *

There’s both logic and wisdom in those perfectly reasonable suggestions.

But how do those of us concerned about the facts and realities of oil production and climate change approach those others for whom facts are useful only if consistent with ideology? Facts and realities should not be optional considerations, yet there is an large body of research suggesting that we don’t always base our beliefs and motivations on them.

Do we give up? And while there’s little doubt that if (playing devil’s advocate … sort of) the evidence presented about climate change and peak oil production is correct, then we are all in line for one hellacious set of living conditions in the years to come. That is a wee bit threatening to even the hardiest optimist (such as me). Human nature being what it is, any opportunity—no matter how it might be characterized—which removes us from having to consider that is one which most of us will cling to in a heartbeat.

The problem with that approach, as most of us no doubt realize at least intuitively, is that the problems will only get worse, and options to address them will grow fewer and less effective.

Ideologies aside, addressing the challenges which just those two issues will present will require a full-out, all hands on deck approach from everyone. Politics will quickly be trumped by the necessities of the moment, burdened as those moments will be with all of the emotional and psychological factors sure to come into play. Not seeing any easy ways to deal with this, and avoidance/denial are “easy” but only for a moment.

While the options admittedly aren’t optimal or ideal for most, we do have options. But they entail a fair measure of sacrifice and adaptations on a scale few of us can fully envision at the moment.

But given the alternatives, do we really have a better choice?

Crises, or opportunities? That’s up to all of us to decide.

* If credentials mean anything, then it’s fair to say this isn’t a bad set to possess!
Elizabeth K. Dollard Professor of Law and Professor of Psychology (on leave, spring 2014)
Dan Kahan is the Elizabeth K. Dollard Professor of Law and Professor of Psychology at Yale Law School. In addition to risk perception, his areas of research include criminal law and evidence. Prior to coming to Yale in 1999, Professor Kahan was on the faculty of the University of Chicago Law School. He also served as a law clerk to Justice Thurgood Marshall of the U.S. Supreme Court (1990-91) and to Judge Harry Edwards of the United States Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit (1989-90). He received his B.A. from Middlebury College and his J.D. from Harvard University.

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