Peak oil: Facts converge with theory

The theories for predicting timing of peak oil, despite using different methodologies, have arrived at remarkably similar conclusions. Whether peak oil occurred in 2006 or will occur in 2010, what is certain is a shoot-up in prices, given the enormous appetite for energy in China and India.

Over the last couple of years, this column has elaborated on the different theories that predict the timing of peak oil.

It has also analysed other influencing factors such as world oil discovery peaking in the 1960s, the low net energy returns from unconventional sources like tar sands and the dilapidated status of the exploration/drilling industry that could impede ad ditional production in the foreseeable future.



With crude hitting an all-time high of $80 a barrel on NYMEX yesterday, this is probably a good time to summarise the discussion and to see whether the actual numbers have been in line with the forecasts made.

Given in the Table is a summary of the four theories that could be used to estimate the timing of peak oil.

All four methodologies show a remarkable confluence in their predictions regarding the timing of peak oil.

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