Peak oil? Consider it solved

For more than a decade, a fierce debate about peak oil has been raging between those who think a peak in global oil production is at hand and those who think the world is not close to running out of oil. The debate is moot for two reasons. First, the growing threat of global warming requires deep reductions in national and global oil consumption starting now, peak or no peak. Second, relying on unconventional oil like tar sands and liquid coal to make up a supply shortage, as the oilmen say we must, would be climate catastrophe. More supply is not the answer to either our oil or our climate problem — reducing consumption of oil is. And right now we have two feasible solutions: greatly increase our vehicle fuel economy and find alternative fuel sources that are abundant, low-carbon and affordable.
To preserve the livability of the planet, we must cut liquid fossil fuel use more than 50 percent by 2050. That is a central reason that more supply is not the solution to peak oil. That is why it is crucial we don’t adopt the strategy that most in the oil industry prefer for dealing with the peak in conventional oil — ramping up unconventional oil. Most of the major forms of unconventional oil will make global warming worse — and some would make a climate catastrophe inevitable.

Is humanity wise enough not to pursue carbon-intensive alternative fuels, even though pretty much all of them are economically profitable at current oil prices? Let me assume, optimistically, that we are. Let me also assume that we have more than a decade before the peak in conventional oil. We must act now. And by now I mean when we have a new president who actually cares about these issues and believes in government-led solutions to prevent economic losses from a major oil shock and devastating climate change, each of which would cost the U.S. trillions of dollars.

Clearly we now have only two realistic strategies: increase our vehicle fuel economy and develop affordable alternative fuel sources that are low in carbon. In 2050, the planet may well have 2 billion cars on the road or more, three times the current number. To avoid dramatic climate impacts, we must use at least 60 percent less total liquid fossil fuels — and that assumes we have essentially eliminated carbon dioxide emissions in the electric sector. The average car on the road will need to put out under one-fifth the emissions of current cars, or the equivalent of five times the “miles per gallon” of today.

Salon