Peak Oil is You
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Page added on January 10, 2008
Peak oil confusion
Google news searches often turn up editorials, opinion pieces and analysis written by people who don’t buy into this “peak oil” theory. Most of these writers don’t understand what “peak oil” means.
Preparing for ASPO-USA’s Houston conference held last October, the author wrote an Introduction to Peak Oil (Word document, click to open) that was included in the press packet for the gathering. Those new to the issue may want to read this background material. Let’s analyze a recent editorial, Peak No Evil from the Financial Times, to identity some of the confusions it contains.
The slim hope is that if antagonistic commentators actually understood what they were talking about, it might help focus the debate about the liquid fuels problem facing large oil consumers now and in the future.
Some Background Material
Before delving into details, it is necessary to clear-up a meta-misconception about those concerned about peak oil. The Financial Times assumes that the “peak oil” community is monolithic, that so-called peakists all speak with one voice. As in any diverse, loose group of researchers, opinions vary widely within the world-wide peak oil community. There is one thing they all do (or should) agree about and here it is: the world appears to be running out of the ability to increase oil flows. The world is not running out of oil in the ground.
Specifically, “oil flows” refers to the global volumetric flow rate = ν, which is conventionally measured in barrels per day. Peak oil is max(v), taken together with the assumption that the maximum output may vary within a small range (
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