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Page added on August 7, 2015
Peak Oil and what our response should be
Peak Oil will change the way the world works and our long-held assumptions about the world around us is going to be overturned. Peak oil will render millions of people jobless. Those who depend on food made thousands of kms away from where they stay will find food very expensive. That includes all of us who stay in big cities. So the future is a bit rocky. What should our response be? The intuitive thing that people think when confronted with the problem of oil depletion is that the answer lies in oil conservation. Oil conservation is a good idea but of little help when it comes to tackling the systemic changes that peak oil brings.
Why is peak oil missed by the mainstream?
I see two reasons. One is human nature which likes to avoid bad news and always believes in the magical power of science and technology. It is curious that the vast majority of the public never incorporate scientific thinking in their personal lives but have loads of child like faith in science and technology. This is wishful thinking. The other reason is ideological. The policies and thinking of the governments worldwide is influenced by economists who have no understanding of the concept of Net Energy. To explain net energy in simple terms, let’s do a thought experiment. If you look at two 1 litre cans of Bio diesel and Diesel, you will see that the two have similar properties with some variations in the market price. What you don’t see is the effort to make these two cans of liquid. In case of Biodiesel, you need a lot of acres of land, with lots of labour to collect the oil seeds and then you have to use a compressor which needs a lot of energy to extract oil. This is a labour intensive process. The energy input required to make biodiesel is high. In contrast, petroleum diesel requires much less energy because by drilling a hole in the ground copious amount of oil comes out. The energy required to extract oil from ground is much less. After removing large amounts of oil from ground, the capillary action of rocks prevent extraction of oil out. This increases the energy required to take oil out of ground. So after some time oil fields are abandoned, not because oil is finished but because the energy required to extract oil becomes more than the energy in the oil itself. At that point the oil field turn from an energy source to an energy sink and is thus abandoned. It becomes immaterial what is the market price of oil at that point. The economist obsess about the energy price and physics tells you about Net energy. Herein lies the crux of the conflict.
Peak oil will be devastating
The world, since it is built on high net energy oil, will find the decline of net energy availability to the economy as a world changing event. The world will look different before and after peak oil. The most visible and dramatic illustration would be the collapse of the banking sector. See this great video on peak oil and its effects
What should our response be? First instinct when one talks of oil depletion is to think about oil conservation. I believe oil conservation never works because it only drives down prices which incentivises someone else to use more oil. So the oil consumption actually increases. This phenomenon is well studied that they even have a name for it : Jevons Paradox .
Response to Peak Oil can be described in one word: Localism. Localism means that we try to produce what we need using local resources. Our needs broadly are food, clothing, housing etc. The way forward is to grow our own food, weave our own cloths, make houses using local materials like mud, bamboo etc. The miracle of fossil fuels helped us extract enormous amount of energy that was not available to our ancestors. This made mass production possible. We were able to mass produce food and ship it over long distances. We could manufacture everything in bulk and mass transportation made the whole world into a single market. This lead to centralization and overproduction. We are all familiar with the story of Industrial revolution and the subsequent development of capitalism. One other feature of our fossil fuel world is the dominance of the Banking system and the ubiquitous presence of money. The advent of fiat money predates the advent of fossil fuels, but what is different now is that after the arrival of fossil fuels, we have got fiat money to reach astronomical levels. There is now too much money in the system. This makes the present financial system very fragile. Paper money backed by fossil fuels has helped us disconnect from the real world completely. Now we build huge cities right in the middle of deserts, which is not conceivable without the use of fossil fuels and cheap credit. Our ancestors would not dream of building anything like this for the simple reason that they never had access to the amount of high Net energy the way we now have.
So in short, the task before us is to prepare for the setting up of a new system of social and political organisation. The citizens of the Post Peak world will have to learn skills that will enable them to survive the coming great change.
My favorite bet in India is Zero Budget farming as response to peak oil. Zero budget farming is based on very simple principles which mimics a forest. Forest soil is rich in microorganisms and it has biodiversity. These two things make forest an ideal climate for thriving of life. Soil microorganisms help in providing nutrition to the plants and plant biodiversity keeps the pest population under control. The same principle is used in Zero budget farming. The take Indian breed cows, which are said to be rich in microbes compared to the jersey variety. This is mixed with urine (a nitrogen source), pulses (another nitrogen source) and fruits. This creates a medium rich in microbes.
Multiple crops are used to maximize farm biodiversity. The beauty of the zero budget farming system is the optimum utilization of local resources.
There are many such local technologies to explore like Biogas, Solar water heaters, solar cookers etc. Local resources can be used for making houses like mud, bamboo etc.
To create a thriving local economy , we need to build good working local government institutions. A thriving local economy should have a thriving local government structure. The major challenge in the post peak oil scenario will be funding of local government structures. If a thriving local economy is generated then the solution is to fund it by using a local tax base. How workable that would be is something that needs to be explored.
How to start the journey from our present world of high energy economy to a more local low energy economy will be the vexing question facing humanity. This journey will not be easy but one we will have to make. By the way the world is going now (Aug 2015), peak oil will herald the arrival of more wars and political chaos around the world. Europe is already heading towards an alarming situation with migrants trying to escape poverty in Africa rushing to Europe. This is only going to get worse. Middle East is already burning and in the future Sectarian warfare is sure to increase. It is hard to think that neat theoretically good sounding “solutions” to peak oil will work as easily as it sound. Nevertheless, it is important to explore in a scientific way the best options that are present in front of humanity. This gives us a template for action. Never mind that all this “solution” may seem like Utopian dream in many parts of the world which will be inundated by war. How is one going to implement natural organic farming, biogas, solar energy, rainwater harvesting when bombs are going off everywhere. The greatest threat facing humanity in the future will be political chaos which will make every possible workable solutions unworkable. All the opportunity may get wasted if we do not find a way to deal with the political chaos that Peak oil may precipitate. How the future will pan out depends on the choices we make. They are solutions out there, but will we allow ourselves to partake of them? Only time will tell.
55 Comments on "Peak Oil and what our response should be"
Makati1 on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 9:28 am
Only a few will leave the herd before it thunders over the cliff.
MrNoItAll on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 10:55 am
“The world, since it is built on high net energy oil, will find the decline of net energy availability to the economy as a world changing event.”
We’re already seeing it. If we’re not at (or past) peak oil today, then we’re close enough.
We see massive debt and financialization in place of real organic growth. We see oil producers left with nothing but the bitter dregs to go after, and not a dime in profit to show for it that isn’t conjured up using accounting magic. We see current and former oil exporting nations sinking into unrest and chaos, with millions of refugees fleeing like panicked ants in all directions away from the mayhem. We see massive propaganda generated by TPTB through their media channels in concert with the governments they own, desperately trying to convince an increasingly skeptical populace that “all is well”. We see demand destruction, unemployment, stagnant and decreasing wages, plunging consumerism, shrinking international trade and so much more.
There is very little hope that I can see for a rational and planned exit from the Age of Oil. It’s like a spring wound up too tightly that will either break and shatter into a thousand pieces from too much force or will suddenly unwind in a violent burst of energy.
Time is running out. We can’t rely on our “leaders” to lead. Individual preparation is the only way to prepare for the coming storm. And maybe a few good luck charms wouldn’t hurt.
MrNoItAll on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 10:59 am
“and not a dime in profit to show for it that isn’t conjured up using accounting magic”
rockman and other miscellaneous producers excepted, who are still making a killing! But they are the exception!
Plantagenet on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 11:18 am
Peak Oil will be terrible when we get there.
But we aren’t there yet.
In fact, right now we are in a global oil glut.
Davy on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 11:21 am
Poor Planter he is another one with an agenda that is blowing up in his face. His happy glut is looking like a demon glut.
Plantagenet on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 11:28 am
Poor Davy
He isn’t smart enough to figure out the world is in an oil glut.
————–
Look Davy—the oil biz has going through boom-bust cycles for over a century. In 2009 there was a hug boom. Oil went over $!45 bbl. Now in 2015 we are in the bust. There is a glut of oil and the prices has fallen to under $50/bbl. Someday there will be a boom again. And someday there will be peak oil. But not right now—right now we are in an oil glut.
Nony on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 11:39 am
The video starts with discussing how HIGH oil prices are. It is old content already proved wrong.
That and he mushes together a bunch of topics (peak oil, environment, finances) into a meme-soup of doomerism.
That said, he has a great voice and is engaging. Better than Heinberg’s squeaks.
MrNoItAll on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 11:42 am
Global oil glut and peak oil are not mutually exclusive, are they?
The too-high expense of extracting “the dregs” results in oil that is too expensive for the economy to run on. So it piles up in storage with no buyers — and we get “the glut” that Planter crows about daily, every day, every hour, around the clock — basically nonstop, for whatever reason.
MrNoItAll on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 11:47 am
Poor Plant — He has to lie and make false assertions and sling mud because that’s all he’s got to offer. Pathetic.
Why does peakoil dot com management allow such a slimy troll like Plant to constantly post his garbage here?
penury on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 12:02 pm
It is easy to sit in comfort, surrounded by the trappings of modern American way of life and pontificate upon how the world will cope with the loss of energy which currently provides for 8 billion people. Not suprisingly the view of most is that it may be a minor annoyance but, with prep and planning we will persevere. Having lived in societies which utilized very little imported energy (people and animal power did the work) I do not see any currently feasible planning which would allow for continuation of any of the large expenditures of energy and/or money which will allow nations to continue to exist in their current forms.
ghung on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 12:08 pm
Nony said; “That and he mushes together a bunch of topics (peak oil, environment, finances) into a meme-soup of doomerism…”
Well, yeah, Nony. All of these things are inter-related and will have expanding effects on each other; feedbacks. That’s what you get in a highly-interconnected, highly-integrated global system-set. Your method of attempting to compartmentalise things is dangerously flawed as you try to downplay the severity of these issues on an individual basis. All of the oil in the world coming on-line cheaply, at once, won’t solve the other critical issues facing humanity. Indeed, this so-called oil glut is exacerbating many other problems (Saudi’s borrowing billions?!, increasing CO2 emissions?! More resources poured into ultimately useless things like SUVs?!, etc.). Funny that the economy isn’t turning around like many said it would if oil prices were just a lot cheaper (despite what the fudged official numbers want you to think). I suggest you get comfortable with the realities of conundrums and predicaments, and respond accordingly. All of the fairy dust (and/or oil) in the world won’t solve the mess humanity has created for itself and their planet. Ignoring and dismissing this is cowardly.
Apneaman on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 12:08 pm
planty’s glut theme is his/her/it’s psychological defense mechanism. A way to push that which it cannot deal with into the future. Many who are unable to outright deny do it with climate change and the host creeping ecological disasters as well by trumpeting their pet tech as the solution. planty has the glut, others use EV’s, solar, bio char, vertical farming, geo engineering, the singularity, etc. Anything but acknowledge that our consequences are knocking on the door and there is no escape. Same reason why we have conjured up our gods and afterlife. Fragile apes.
rockman on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 12:08 pm
MrNoItAll – An appropriate handle IMHO. Still amazes me that some folks don’t understand that we have been dealing with the effects of global PO for years. It makes no difference whst the exact date might be. As you speculate GPO might eventually prove to be this year or next after oil prices crashed and the world is producing record amounts of oil. I can forgive those who don’t eork in the oil patch where most of us recognized PO (actually the POD) over 4 decades ago. We called it the “reserve replacement problem” and not “peak oil” but it was the same dynamic.
Whatever that unimportant GPO date might be it won’t have an effect on our energy situation compared to all the other POD factors. In the meantime we’ll just have to suffer with their limited understanding of how the real world works. LOL.
Plantagenet on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 12:26 pm
Apey
The fact that the world is in an oil glut is simply reality. Of course the fact that the world is in an glut shows we aren’t at peak oil yet.
You are stumbling into the truth. Keep thinking.
CHEERS!
MrNoItAll on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 12:39 pm
Riddle: In what way is Plant’s avatar an exact match for his mouth?
Constant non-stop motion but zero substance, just pure annoyance.
MrNoItAll on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 12:41 pm
Ghung — Excellent POV that you just expressed. But way above the intellectual level of most people, unfortunately. Nony included, apparently. It IS all linked together. Some might call it a perfect storm.
Plantagenet on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 12:41 pm
@MrNoItALL
Do you have anything substantive to contribute, or are you just here to troll other posters?
Cheers!
MrNoItAll on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 12:42 pm
rockman — Why is that what is so clear and perfectly well understood by you guys working in the oil patch is incomprehensible to so many others. What?! Are you guys just a lot smarter than most other people?
MrNoItAll on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 12:44 pm
Plant — Congrats on yet another stupid question. My contribution here is relating fact and opinions based on fact. Factually speaking, you’re the most magnificent example of a pure-bred ass that I’ve had the opportunity to observe for many years.
Plantagenet on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 12:44 pm
@MrNoItAll
No, people in the oil biz aren’t smarter then other people. In fact, a great number of people in the oil biz were completely blindsided by the collapse of oil prices caused by the oil glut and have gone bankrupt.
Cheers!
Plantagenet on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 12:46 pm
@mrital
Your potty mouth is overflowing. Please flush twice.
peterev on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 1:06 pm
The problem is that even with an oil glut, the replacement cost of any oil product used is not enough to replace the actual cost of the oil used in creating that product. If gasoline is $2.50 a gallon and the price per barrel is $50, that gasoline used will be replaced if the cost of the barrel of oil is $50 or less. The cost of oil from the Bakken and other places is higher thus we are seeing the rig count go down. Eventually, production will go down.
Once the glut is used up, the cost of gasoline will rise to the replacement cost of fresh supply. That may be a steep climb that kills the economy for those who are not prepared for it.
As far as killing jobs, jobs can be created by installing PV, solar thermal, wind related systems and by conserving. Also battery and solar related developments will help by creating better means of generating electricity and storing surpluses. I think a lot more people are starting to see the writing on the wall. If not, solar and wind would not be gaining traction. EVs would still be a joke and using lead acid batteries.
We have to look ahead and see what the future might be and take action to address the short comings. Greer, Tverberg, Kunstler, Ghung, Rockman, and even Yergin etc. are all providing insights. We have to open up our ears and our eyes to try to fathom what each is saying. Reading for understanding is paramount.
I’m going to miss Jon Stewart of The Daily Show.
Nony on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 1:37 pm
Mr No:
Very silly and Rock too for agreeing with you. You fail econ 101.
The buyer could care less how much it cost the producer to make the product. He just cares what he pays for it. So if he gets oil for $45, he doesn’t care if it cost more for someone to make it and they are dumping it. Or if cheaper to produce. All he cares is what he pays. So, it doesn’t pile up because of that.
Then, it makes no sense if oil IS very expensive to produce for it to keep getting produced at a loss. Low prices incent consumption and disincent production. You have it backwards.
Davy on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 1:47 pm
Peter said “As far as killing jobs, jobs can be created by installing PV, solar thermal, wind related systems and by conserving.” Peter, I wish this were so. Wouldn’t it wonderful to have low carbon with jobs. Peter it is a fantasy on multiple levels.
The whole idea that AltE is green is flawed. The waste stream is huge with AltE. The scaling with AltE with what is small currently to what would be required to be significant is unrealistic. The timing is bad. We have huge debt overhang already. We missed the investment curve by 20 years at least. We have economies in distress everywhere. We are not going to AltE our way out of this mess.
AltE is worse than other economic investments because of the high upfront cost and the payback is delayed. Our society is broke how are we going to afford the huge upfront investment and wait years on a payoff. The grid has an AltE integration cost. The sweet spots for generation have been taken. The grid spare capacity in regards to AltE integration is nearing declining marginal return on investment. In the future expensive grid upgrades will be needed for increased AltE integration.
Efficiency is another smoke blowing area of green corn porn. Efficiency sounds good on paper but eventually it hits marginal return on its investment. At some point you are investing more in switching out assets then you are saving. A negative return is negative whether it is green or brown. Bad debt is bad debt. Poor people can’t afford new insulation and society can’t afford to insulate every house.
This green corn porn is just another example of the disconnect in society of desired investments without rationalizing the costs. Society is in denial and delusional at all levels. It is a product of what seems to be endless growth and progress. We are conditioned to growth and unconditioned to less. This is an important point because it means irrational policy and dysfunctional networks at a time when high efficiency is required to grow and prosper.
This condition is new and nothing new. The newness is the globalization of this growth conditioning and the total coverage of this growth meme. What is not new is societies grow and collapse and always have. Species and ecosystems follow the same pattern. This is nature and we cannot transcend nature despite our feelings of divine exceptionalism and manifest destiny of human progress and development. This is a sickness of a overly large brain with ample supplies of high intensity energy. It is an entropic blowout of energy. It is a supernova of species growth and collapse.
marmico on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 2:05 pm
We called it the “reserve replacement problem”
What problem. You are aware that the RP Ratio has increased since 1980 from ~36 years to ~53 years in 2014 per BP Annual Review stats.
http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/about-bp/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/review-by-energy-type/oil/oil-reserves.html
BobInget on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 2:06 pm
Crash or Cash?
What’s the future of Mideast oil?
JEDDAH — The Middle East is witnessing a massive development in the hospitality sector with a total of 453 hotel projects planned in the next five years, a report said.
The new hotels will add 134,217 rooms to the hospitality offering in the region, said the report by JLL for The Hotel Show Dubai, to be held in September.
“The UAE currently leads hotel construction with Abu Dhabi and Dubai featuring as strong markets, and Saudi Arabia and Turkey following closely behind,” said Christine Davidson, group event director of the dmg events hospitality portfolio including The Hotel Show Dubai, the largest forum for the industry in the Middle East and Africa.
About 5,300 rooms are likely to be added to Abu Dhabi’s luxury hospitality offering by 2017, pushing the emirate’s total room tally to 26,000 from 20,700, said a report.
Around 2,300 rooms will enter the market by the end of the year alone, mainly in response to the boom in hotel guests during the first quarter of the year, up 20 per cent in comparison to Q1 figures from 2014, said the report.
With 45 per cent of the current supply being five-star hotels, the new hotel room openings will also be in the luxury segment with openings in the end of 2015 including the upscale Bab Al Qasr Hotel near Presidential Palace, set to boast 677 rooms and a private beach.
Abu Dhabi has been witnessing positive growth due to a large number of government initiatives to grow the emirate as a high quality tourist destination. The expansion of its International Airport and national carrier Etihad Airways, further improvement of its leisure offering and attractions, hosting world-class events, and major campaigns by the ADTCA to promote the emirate on a global scale have played a major part in its development.
Attractions launching in Abu Dhabi in coming years include the new Louvre and Guggenheim museums and Warner Bros theme park on Yas Island. – Agencies
Apneaman on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 2:28 pm
Tech will save us.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBVOYkhNb1o
Ed on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 2:46 pm
You wrote “Our ancestors would not dream of building anything like this for the simple reason that they never had access to the amount of high Net energy the way we now have.”
The Incas built huge cities, overshot their local carrying capacity and collapsed. Same old same old. Those who don’t learn from history are destined to repeat it.
Plantagenet on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 2:49 pm
Peter is right. Eventually the price of oil will have to go up.
Thats the nature of the oil biz. When there is an oil glut, like now, investment falls and eventually oil production falls. When production falls enough to cause local shortages, the price of oil goes up.
The oil biz is subject to booms and busts—its been that way for a century.
Cheers!
Plantagenet on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 2:51 pm
@Ed
The Incas didn’t collapse because they “overshot their carrying capacity”. They collapsed because they ran into guns, germs and steel in the hands of Pizzaro and a small group of invading Spanish conquistadores.
Read Jared Diamond’s wonderful book for the details.
CHEERS!
Apneaman on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 3:16 pm
I think Ed meant the Maya which Diamond discusses in his book Collapse.
peterev on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 3:21 pm
Hi Davy,
I think the return is dependent upon how it is done. Ghung has a system that has a high ROI because he scrounged for the pieces and did most of the work himself. His ROI is high. Mine is lower because I had a commercial outfit do the installs.
Someone mentioned that there is $75T of capital out there searching for positive ROI but it may all collapse.
I know I can save a lot more by installing a solar thermal heating system. If it saves me $500 per year in heating costs but costs $10K to put it in, the rough return is about 3.6 percent (Rule of 72 divided by 20 years).
Gov’t may eventually step in to prime the pump with printed capital to subsidize a massive solar installation project similar to the work projects of the 30’s.
We’ll see.
Davy on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 3:45 pm
Peter, I hope while the economy is in tact it heads the way you mentioned. I believe it is a smart way for several reasons. I believe in resilience and green is generally more resilient than brown. I believe in efficiency in the sense of lower waste where possible. I believe in low tech low speed. We don’t need high performance and high speed. It is the junkie in us that craves performance. I like variability and seasonality. I want to live closer to Nature even if that means less.
I am disgusted with modern man but I realize we just evolved that way. Self organization and irreversibility will not allow us to return to our pre-fossil fuel innocence in one piece. In other words the green world you mentioned is the correct way IMHO minus the happy ending.
We can adjust, mitigate, and rebuild after a fall but we can’t progress. We may be able to progress spiritually because often with hardship comes spiritual advancement. Our 200 years of growth has brought spiritual decay. There has been significant enlightenment but that is mostly drowned out by the noise of our cancerous growth.
I am with you Peter and I am heading that way while the train is still on the tracks.
Plantagenet on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 4:20 pm
@Apey and Ed
1. If Ed meant the Maya then why did he write about the Inca? They are two quite different civilizations in totally different environments on two different continents, don’t you know? How could you two possibly mix them up?
2. Modern scholarship shows the Mayan civilization never collapsed. Yes, some Mayan cities were abandoned at the end of the Maya “classic” period, but other Mayan cities prospered and even grew at the same time in the northern Yucatan region. For this reason, many scholars think discussion of the collapse of the “collapse” of Mayan civilization are wrong-headed. Actually Mayan civilication evolved and changed but didn’t collapsed–The few preserved Aztec books show that some Mayan cities were still occupied and trading with the Aztecs at the time of the western conquest by Cortez and the Spanish.
Cheers!
Apneaman on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 4:35 pm
Fuck off worm
Dave on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 4:37 pm
Planter, did you know the Maya had a corn glut? Did you know there was Peak Corn but the high priests ignored the warnings and well the rest is history. See what happens when you mistake a glut for scarcity!
Plantagenet on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 4:57 pm
@Apey
Look—since you don’t even know that the Incas and Mayas lived on two different continents, its no surprise you and Ed would think they are the same. I suppose to you they are just some foreigners not worthy of your study. But I’ve been to Ecuador and Peru and Chile and Cusco and Machu Picchu, and I’ve been to Mexico City and Cozumel and Guatamala. I’ve seen the buildings and visiting the ancient cities and been wowed by the museums of their art and relics. They actually are very different people with different histories and different cultures and different adaptations to their very different environments.
Get it now?
By the way, your potty mouth is overflowing again. I suggest you man up and flush your potty mouth several times to see if you can make that stuff disappear.
CHEERS!.
Davy on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 5:13 pm
Planter, give it a rest you are looking foolish. Is it happy hour or something?
Apneaman on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 5:28 pm
Congratulations planty on your privileged vacation history. I’m sure you feel you have impressed the hell out of everyone. Whats next are you going to upload a GIF and some graphs of your financial portfolio? You’re pretty fly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AltMeuPkWRs
MSN Fanboy on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 6:24 pm
LOL Planter,
The reason you cant stop him posting is because THIS SITE LABELS PLANTER AS AN… AHEM… “EXPERT”..
When i saw that i fell of my chair.
Makati1 on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 10:55 pm
“My favorite bet in India is Zero Budget farming as response to peak oil. Zero budget farming is based on very simple principles which mimics a forest. Forest soil is rich in microorganisms and it has biodiversity. These two things make forest an ideal climate for thriving of life. Soil microorganisms help in providing nutrition to the plants and plant biodiversity keeps the pest population under control. The same principle is used in Zero budget farming. The take Indian breed cows, which are said to be rich in microbes compared to the jersey variety. This is mixed with urine (a nitrogen source), pulses (another nitrogen source) and fruits. This creates a medium rich in microbes.
Multiple crops are used to maximize farm biodiversity. The beauty of the zero budget farming system is the optimum utilization of local resources.
There are many such local technologies to explore like Biogas, Solar water heaters, solar cookers etc. Local resources can be used for making houses like mud, bamboo etc….”
This sums up what the future will be for those who survive. Field farming is not going to be possible. It attracts the pests for each crop by providing concentrated feeding/breeding. It requires animal energy(horses/oxen)to plow and prepare if it is of any size beyond a home garden. It relies on the weather being perfect for that mono-crop. And it take all of the nutrients out of the soil. Permaculture mimics nature. It worked for her for millions of years and can work for us if we learn how and do it.
Makati1 on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 10:59 pm
BTW: If you know your history, you would know that “mud huts” were used in the Stone Age up until the post Roman era in England (400AD). They were good for a century or more with minimum maintenance of local materials and made living in that cold climate possible. The indians of the Americas lived in similar shelters. Ditto for all of the “primitives” of the world.
Davy on Sat, 8th Aug 2015 12:37 am
India is history Mak. You can’t expect 1.2BIL people in such a small area to survive as a civilization minus fossil fuels and a habitable climate. If you do you have your sci-fi cap on this morning in Makati. Has your coffee gone cold? Get real Mak. It will soon come down to population levels and carrying capacity. That is what is so sweet about nature. No discrimination and no compassion just Nature. You can live with her or against her but it has no effect on her. She rules and it is through her life will be reborn again.
rockman on Sat, 8th Aug 2015 10:11 am
It isn” that the oil patch isn’t that much “smarter” per se. But we are a sh*t load more experienced then anyone here. LOL.
And what was so difficult about discovering new oil 4 decades ago especially given how much has been discovered since then? Spoken by another arm chair “expert” who has never been tasked with finding the next prospect to drill.
I always try to avoid the “smarter then thou” angle but not this time: everyone on this site that has ever had the job of generating an oil exploration prospect raise your hand. We do have a lot of smart folks on this site. But take no offense: the vast majority here don’t really no sh*t about the details of the process.
My mentor in 1975 understood exactly how difficult it was to generate on onshore convention oil prospect: he had been trying for more than 10 years. Those old farts understood Hubbert long before he published his work. This difficulty is what led to the boom in offshore shelf drilling. And when that played out it led to Deep Water trends. And as that play matured (been going on for more then 30 years) oil prices rose which led to using KNOWN TECHNOLOGY to developed the shales.
Folks need to ask themselves why it was the expensivd and short lived shale plays that took off so why didn’t the convenional oil trends boom. Maybe because those trends had been thououghly exploited…you think? LOL. And when those plays are fully exploited (after oil prices recover sufficiently)…what’s next in the way of new commercial oil plays?
Gues what, “experts”? No one in the oil patch even has a fantasy idea of what next. As far as anyone in the oil patch being “blindsided” by the crash? Absolute bullsh*t. It was fully expected…just a quesion of when. The oil patch buried itself in debt for that very reason: drill as much of the crap left before the grim reaper shows up: f*ck the bankers, f*ck the shareholders. f*ck the bondholders, f*ck the public, f*ck the economy. It was about bleeding as much out of the process as possible before the majority of us old farts hung it up for good.
Sorry if that hurts anyone’s feelings. Nothing personal…just business. LOL.
ghung on Sat, 8th Aug 2015 11:00 am
Spot on, Rock. My former employer has filed bankruptcy three times (his companies have) and he, personally comes out smelling like a rose every time. He milks every real estate boom for all it’s worth, with other people’s money; pays himself first, then bails when the tide turns. His last big milking (before he went to ND to build man camps) was around his own home town, here in the mountainous land of vacation/retirement homes. Left banks and other investors holding tens-of-millions in bad loans. No matter – he just has to sort of sneak in and out of town when he comes home in his new Escalade.
I doubt many of the main players in the oil patch have to scrounge for their next meal,, ever. Just business.
ghung on Sat, 8th Aug 2015 11:31 am
peterev said; “Ghung has a system that has a high ROI because he scrounged for the pieces and did most of the work himself. His ROI is high.”
Yeah Peter, but that’s only part of it. Indeed, the eventual financial returns were fairly low on my list unless one considers the long-term investment; the ‘pay-it-forward’ factor. My primary considerations were, and still are, living with my own environmental impacts, resiliency, reducing dependence on complex external systems, and probably foremost; not paying others to do things that I can (or can learn to) do myself. If I built it, I can maintain/repair it myself…. and I hate getting bills every month; love not having to produce the income in the first place.
My solar energy is first-order income; no taxes, no association with corporations that would otherwise provide that energy, no feeling of dependency and/or helplessness when those corporate systems fail (or when money is tight). It’s largely about avoiding traps that industrial economies set for all of us.
The electric roto-tiller I’m using for my new greenhouse and garden area is a good example. The tiller and small solar system to run it and some other things cost about what a good gasoline-powered tiller would cost. Maybe not as powerful, but sufficient, and superior in other ways. And, hey, no ongoing fossil fuel use. Now I’m sure other gardeners around here don’t consider the fuel for their tillers as a major expense, but add maintenance, the noise and pollution, added weight, storage (my little electric tiller weighs just 15 pounds and hangs on the wall), and overall ease-of-use, I think I’m happy with my choice. It’s simpler and has far fewer parts. Our little Black and Decker corded electric mower has been going strong for over 25 years. Higher RPM and lots of torque. Weighs less as well. Good considerations for getting older. Besides, I can make (harvest) my own electricity far easier than I can make my own gasoline.
Advantageous choices, all things considered.
aire on Sat, 8th Aug 2015 11:45 am
Rockman’s response is all over the place. First he says “his kind” knows it all and people on this site “don’t know shit” Basically what i got from it — True but somewhat twisted : anyone willing to do the damn research knows shit. And as far as experience.. i doubt u actually drill the oil yourself – you do what anyone would do in your position and look at fu*king numbers and charts then tell your lackeys what to do and then study your bank account. DONT get me wrong, Rockman is an expert but thats because he does research like anyone of us can do and he has found a career in doing so. Not being blindsided is a bullcrap remark – the Rockman even says it was a matter of WHEN. Wtf thats the whole point of being blindsided… its like the TV show survivor LoL the know they could get voted off but dont exactly know WHEN. Another thing, he says,,, the oil patch knew about the findings of Hubbert from the get go pretty much and later says fu*k everyone — its all about the $$$ So doesnt this make the Rockman and his posse look like a bunch of drug dealers. They dont physically make the dope or even extract it themselves but they in my opinion somewhat know their supply and a good idea where it is and know how to dump it on their addicts (us) as fast as profitably possible.
No offense to you Rockman or any other oil patch people. I understand it is just business afterall… maybe you’re right tho Rockman, maybe it is time and they know it, for you Oil Mafia Bosses to hang up their hats rather soon
PeterEV on Sat, 8th Aug 2015 2:44 pm
Hi Ghung,
How have your electric motor brushes been holding up?
I’ve been fooling around with electrics for some time. I currently mow with a Ryobi mower with rechargeable Liion batteries. I tried a cordless mower but it took twice as long to mow around trees and bushes. The cordless was really light; about 1/2 the weight of an ICE mower. No worry about starting or changing the oil or storing it over winter.
indigo on Sat, 8th Aug 2015 3:57 pm
Is there presently a glut of oil?
Yes,.. there is,.. at this present moment, a glut of oil in ‘the global system’.
But is that glut a good sign that the system is fine, or is the glut giving us a false sense of security, and maybe masking ominous, indicators of threat to the system.?
If we expand our glut observation, we can a also see that most commodities are also falling in price and in a glut?,…copper, iron, steel, aluminium, coal,..you name it, they are all in over supply,.. a glut?. Why?
Could it be that we don’t have a surplus (glut), of fuel and other commodities because we are in good economic shape?. We are showing every indication of being in a deteriorating global economy, and in a deteriorating economy we use less fuel,.. but we also use less of other materials (commodities), because our global manufacturing and distribution system is shutting down.?
So we can’t look at the glut of fuel in isolation. The glut *is* real, but the glut is an indicator of slow but observable, global economic shutdown. We should not be enticed into complacency by a glut of oil. As you drive leisurely to the beach on your unexpected cheap fuel, bear in mind that less and less material is getting mined, processed, manufactured, shipped and sold, and that we are eating our seed corn, in the form of cheap commodities,.. including oil.
To conclude,..there is an oil glut today (8/8/2015). The mistake is thinking that it is a good sign. Enjoy, your cheap motoring, while it lasts. And reflect on the fact that you’re burning through the last couple of decades of fuel that might have given your children and grandchildren some hope of a head start on their future.
indigo on Sat, 8th Aug 2015 4:27 pm
Further to the ‘glut’ thing?
What is a glut? A glut is not a static amount, it is a resultant of input flow minus output flow.
How fragile or resilient is a glut ?
By way of analogy : The water pressure/flow here in the UK where I live is very good. So much so, that if I turn both hot and cold taps on full bore into a wash hand basin with no plug in the outflow, the water level will slowly begin to rise to 3 or 4 inches. That 4 inch depth of flowing water is to all intents ‘a glut’? But I only need to turn one tap by a mere fraction of a turn to the closed position, and that 4 inch deep ‘glut’ of water will quickly descend to zero.
So a glut can be a fragile entity, which can be rapidly changed by the merest change to input or output? As such, we should not be enticed into complacency by a glut of oil, given that something as a simple as a shipping ‘fracas’ near the mouth of the Red Sea could turn a glut into a shortage within days?
A glut is a function of flow rate. It can (and will), change in an instant.