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Page added on February 13, 2014
Peak Oil and the socio-economic impact of depleting fossil fuel resources
Kurt Cobb is an author, speaker, and columnist who speaks and writes frequently on peak oil, energy and the environment. He is a regular contributor to The Christian Science Monitor and has written columns for the Paris-based science news site Scitizen.
Kurt’s writings have been featured on Resilience, The Oil Drum, OilPrice.com, Investing.com, Peak Oil Review, Common Dreams, Le Monde Diplomatique, and many other sites. He is a founding member of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas—USA, and he has served on the board of the Arthur Morgan Institute for Community Solutions.
He is a graduate of Stanford University and his novel “Prelude: A Novel About Secrets, Treachery and the Arrival of Peak Oil” is a startling reinterpretation of contemporary events and a window onto our energy future.
Kurt’s website is ResourceInsights.blogspot.com
Dr. Nate Hagens is a well known authority on fossil fuel, peak oil and resource depletion. He is the former lead editor of The Oil Drum, one of the most popular and high-respected websites for analysis and commentary on global energy supplies and the socio-economic impact of declining oil resources. His a board member of the Post Carbon Institute and currently works at the Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future, where he is also on the Board. Prior to his journalistic research and reporting, he was the president of Sanctuary Asset Management and a vice president with Salomon Brothers and Lehman Brother’s investment firms.
Nate has a masters in finance from the University of Chicago and a doctorate in Natural Resources from the University of Vermont. He has appeared on PBS, NPR and BBC and lectured internationally.
His website and writings can be found at TheMonkeyTrap.us
15 Comments on "Peak Oil and the socio-economic impact of depleting fossil fuel resources"
Northwest Resident on Thu, 13th Feb 2014 4:37 pm
No time to listen to the recording since I’m at work and under pressure to get things done. But just a quick look at TheMonkeyTrap.us has induced me to bookmark it and make it a regular pit stop for relevant information. Who knows — maybe there is hope for the future — here’s a quote from the Monkey Trap:
“We are fortunate (or cursed) to live in the liminal space surrounding the likely peak in energy output of a species on this planet. Some things about the future are determined, most are not. I believe (and am willing to concede it might be self-deception) that education, dialogue, and how we create emergent phenomenon by interacting with other people will end up changing the future, for better or worse. I hope for the better. The stakes are pretty high. But so are the opportunities.”
rockman on Thu, 13th Feb 2014 5:28 pm
“…interacting with other people will end up changing the future, for better or worse.” I fully agree. Especially with the “worse” part. Given what we’ve seen happening in the energy producing regions of the world over the last 25 years it’s difficult for me not to expect worse…probably much worse.
ghung on Thu, 13th Feb 2014 5:51 pm
@NR – Nate created TheMonkeyTrap when TOD went into archive. He seems to be taking an extended hiatus.
Where y’at, Nate?”
GregT on Thu, 13th Feb 2014 6:05 pm
I have a very strong inclination towards our future being far more reactive, than proactive. We’ve had plenty of time to make plans, but instead we’re still stuck in a BAU paradigm.
I suspect that the masses will still be chanting ‘growth’, long after we have entered into the state of terminal decline. Still no long term plans on food production. IMHO, this is not going to end well.
Opportunities abound in times of growth and expansion, not so much during times of stagnation. Never mind contraction. Survival of the ‘fittest’ seems the more likely course of action.
J-Gav on Thu, 13th Feb 2014 6:42 pm
My gut feeling is often pretty much like GregT’s and Makati’s. Still, I try not to take it as “a given” since it’s only based on my 15-20 years of reading up on
issues like resource depletion, climate, biodiversity, finance, etc AND my subjective interpretation of all that …
From that subjective POV, it looks like avoiding a survival of the “shittiest” scenario would amount to a sort of minor victory. But, like Hagens, I still allow for the possibility of other, unexpected and maybe more positive outcomes … humility oblige.
James A. Hellams on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 1:24 am
I agree completely with GregT.
Back in 1973, when we had the Arab Oil embargo; we should have immediately started to make plans for limiting our dependence on oil. However, when the Arabs opened the spigot again, every thing went back to the BAU paradigm. Now, it is 41 years since that embargo.
Precious time that should have been used to prepare for the coming collapse of the oil supply was wasted. Now, the time to act is rapidly diminishing (if not lost altogether).
Chief among the precious time lost was rebuilding; and expanding our railroad service in the US.
The railroads were, are now, and in to the future; will continue to be the MOST energy efficient and MOST energy alternative modes of transportation we will EVER HAVE!.
Because every inch of track can be electrified; a train can literally run WITHOUT ANY DEPENDENCY ON OIL FOR ENERGY! Also, the train is the ONLY mode of transportation that can run coast to coast, NONSTOP, WITHOUT using one drop of oil for energy!
Bandits on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 1:46 am
“Because every inch of track can be electrified; a train can literally run WITHOUT ANY DEPENDENCY ON OIL FOR ENERGY! Also, the train is the ONLY mode of transportation that can run coast to coast, NONSTOP, WITHOUT using one drop of oil for energy!” It can RUN without oil like an electric car or television set or a windmill but…..
The whole edifice is maintained by oil. It was built with oil, it was researched and designed with oil. Why don’t you have a little think about your statement and see what you come up with. If oil goes away, in short order so does the modern way of life.
Then again maybe you think modern infrastructure can be maintained with horse and cart, just like the cowboy days.
Makati1 on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 2:08 am
Bandits, you are correct. Oil is in
EVERYTHING we do, eat, wear or use. Name one thing that does not have an oil tag on it somewhere, besides sunlight powered climate and ecology. Oil is stored sunlight. We have drained the solar savings account and are now facing energy bankruptcy.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 3:05 am
From that subjective POV, it looks like avoiding a survival of the “shittiest” scenario would amount to a sort of minor victory.
Yea J-Gav, I think we need to be modest, humble, and look for small victories. This is a big world from a local point of view. To draw conclusions in a generalized macro sense is simplistic. I think some places will be like hell on earth. Other places may actually be tolerable. Concerning collapse much will depend on timing, the mix of tipping points/feedbacks, and location. Two important variables for stability returning is degree and duration. If we land on our feet we might be able to reboot some critical systems especially those that will manage modern man’s poisons and WMD. The poisons and WMD are the wild cards. They are world ending no matter what climbs out of the swamp of collapse if left to their own devises. AGW of course is the other wild card. We all know it may not be so bad if we have a quick collapse with a reduction in population closer to pre fossil fuel carrying capacity. I just wonder what species out there is going to feast on all the dead meat from that population reduction. That is allot of food for something. Who knows we might go cannibal. It is going to be rank otherwise!
Makati1 on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 7:22 am
Davy, rats are likely to be the scavengers of choice. They can live most everywhere, and can multiply to match the resources. Then the smaller insects and bacteria will recycle their leavings and eventually, in a few thousand years, all traces of humans will be gone, including their cities, under the new landscape. In a few hundred million years, a blink of an evolutionary eye, nothing will remain and the earth will have a new ecosystem … without man.
J-Gav on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 10:51 am
Einstein once said that if rats were 20 lbs heavier they’d rule the world…
Davy, Hermann, MO on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 11:37 am
Ha, J-Gav and Makati…the rat picture is valid. Out here in the country we have possums, coyotes, buzzards, crows, and sure to be many wild dogs. Rats hang out with you folks in the shitty…I mean city sorry
rollin on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 2:08 pm
James is right about trains running on electric, except that there is no coast to coast electrified system.
I question the need to travel long distances on a regular basis. I can understand freight movement, but long distance passenger movement is a luxury of the big build up.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 5:09 pm
I hope we can build out some more basic train infrastructure. We will need it if we have a soft landing. The high tech high speed train stuff happening today is useless and is another white elephant in a contracting world.
Jerry McManus on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 7:37 pm
There is a possibility that there will remain a very thin layer of plastic in the geologic record after mankind is extinct.