Peak Oil and ”The Limits to Growth”: two parallel stories

The figure above is taken from the 2004 edition of “The Limits to Growth”. It shows the typical curves that the models of the study produce. These curves are similar to those of oil depletion studies based on the “Hubbert model”. The similarity is not casual, the theory and the method behind the two approaches have a lot in common.
If global warming hits us first, our worries about resource depletion are of little importance and the reverse is also true. At present, we can’t say which problem is the more immediate one. What we can say is that fossil fuels (and crude oil in particular) are the crucial resource of the world’s economy. In the hypothesis that resource depletion is a more pressing concern than global warming, the vision of impending “peak oil” and “peak fossils” is equivalent to that of the “base case” model of the LTG studies. In both cases, we see the collapse of the industrial society due to resource depletion.

So, it may be that peak oil and “peak civilization” will coincide as an event taking place in the first decades of 21st century. Of course, we are not there yet, but the world’s economic system is letting out ominous creaking noises. Are these signs of impending collapse? We won’t have to wait for many years to know.

The Oil Drum Europe