Peak Oil: A Look to the Future

The biggest problem I have with how the shale story is being sold is it is being used to justify a blind resumption of business-as-usual and I think we really need to be asking some deeper questions of ourselves because eventually even these plays will run out too. I say we should have a distinct and well thought out plan for how we want to use the potential work those resources represent to build ourselves the finest country energy can supply. [1]

Months ago, I offered this observation: “[T]his is … about opportunity. Our future prosperity will be measured in large part by the vision we develop right now about how economic growth will be produced and sustained in a world with a very different base of energy resources. We cannot continue to rely on unlimited amounts of inexpensive and energy-dense fossil fuels to sustain us at the same levels as in the past, let alone support our hopes for greater levels of growth and economic prosperity in the years to come. We need to accept that. Then our work and innovation can begin in earnest.”

There are some obstacles in our way, largely self-inflicted. But there is a way out, as I noted here: “There are no easy answers to the challenges we face. There are no quick solutions. There are no readily apparent decisions which will effectively cover all of these challenges at once. There are no inexpensive outcomes. And there are no successful options that will arise or be implemented without a much more active involvement from all of us. Mostly, we’re going to have to learn to and prepare ourselves for adaptation. Peak Oil is not a challenge to be solved as we traditionally understand the concept so much as it will be an adjustment and revamping of … well, almost everything we produce and consume and require.”

The challenges of Peak Oil [cherry-picked statements about energy independence and being “awash” in “vast” resources duly noted and notwithstanding] are not insurmountable, to be sure. But a better future is only going to happen if we first make the effort to become better informed, and then commit to playing a part in fashioning that better future for ourselves and our children.

The mission is fairly straightforward: “If we truly wish to return to a place where we all feel and believe that this nation indeed remains ‘exceptional’, then we need to harness a vision for the future that is not just incrementally better than this one. The uncomfortable truth is that in the years to come, using the same resources and methods and strategies that got us here will be of limited value at best. A bigger and more expansive vision is required, and all of us will have an essential role to play. With billions more expected in the next few decades—all utilizing many more of the finite resources this planet harbors—we have no choice but to more expansive, creative, and inclusive.”

A couple of other observations for us to consider in this new year:

* … [W]e are farther away than we have ever been from having a shared national vision for the future of our country….

Absent such a framework for the future, the national debate has been the victim of an increasingly acute form of intellectual paralysis: The short-term mindsets of our elected officials and the voters — tied to the two-year election cycle — force debate on inherently inadequate, short-term solutions to substantial, long-term problems. Because we have no shared vision of the country’s future, against which short-term solutions might be measured, there are no metrics for productive discourse. Hence, our so-called ‘leaders’ argue in reliance on their ‘principles,’ rather than with a broader view toward implementing the future we want to see.

Things will only continue to grow worse, and much more polarized (although that’s truly frightening to imagine), unless and until we agree, as a nation, that there are some fundamental issues about our future that need to be addressed… and resolved. [2]

The point is that the way we live together now, the way we govern ourselves, the way we arrange our physical spaces and our commerce, the way we do economics and measure prosperity—all these have to be changed in creative ways if we want to achieve the goal of sustainable prosperity. All these changes require … wait for it … innovation. Innovations in the way we think, interact, and structure our lives require just as much imagination, intelligence, persistence, and funding as innovations in technology. [3]

Choices….Crisis, or opportunity?

What kind of a nation do we want to be, and what kind of a world do we wish to leave to our children?

Act as if what you do makes a difference. It does – William James

Happy New Year!

Peak Oil Matters