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Page added on December 3, 2020
Peak James Kunstler?
James Howard Kunstler was always the John Gray of Peak Oil prophets, or beyond that, a Cassandra in reverse — often telling direly pessimistic overstatements, but always being believed. I had read columns and essays by him semi-regularly 15 years ago, when many in the West were worried about Peak Oil.
Recently, I saw his “The Long Emergency” at my local library, and grabbed it off the shelf.
What follows is first my Goodreads review, then some extensive additional thoughts.
The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century by James Howard Kunstler
My rating: 3 of 5 stars
Peak PROFITABLE US oil may still have been in 1970, as anybody who knows anything about the recent fracking boom in the Permian knows that 20 percent of it, at minimum, is unprofitable. Peak GLOBAL PROFITABLE oil may or may not have been in 2005. On that, I doubt it, as fracking has been mainly a US phenomenon until recently, and even where adopted elsewhere, has probably not been adopted at a loss.
But, given global oil production is up more than 15 percent since then, contra fanbois of his claiming otherwise, we’ve not hit Peak Oil. Period and end of story.
The two swing states of Saudi Arabia and Russia certainly haven’t peaked, even if fields in European Russia (and Azerbaijan), West Siberia, and Ghawar are all deteriorating. And, one must wonder how true the claims of Matthew Simmons et al 15 years ago actually were. (That doesn’t mean we should believe every word of Daniel Yergin, either.)
Other aspects appear dated. One is that lithium batteries have become feasible for hybrids (and nickel hydride has been used too, and still is). And, that means that battery storage technology for solar and wind becomes more feasible. That undercuts oh, about one-third of his pessimism about renewables.
That said, the non-peak of world oil means climate change becomes more problematic. And, in a “bootstrapping,” climate change opens more Arctic lands to oil exploration.
Even if the US has certainly already hit a peak in profitably produced oil, and in all likelihood, a peak in oil produced at any price, all of the factors above indicate that oil addiction isn’t going away.
That said, Kunstler was right about several things.
One is that renewable electric energy simply cannot ramp up enough to replace fossil fuel electricity AND decarbonize our transportation.
This all said, a fair amount of what Kunstler worries about in the Long Emergency would be true without peak oil, and without climate change doing exactly what it is doing.
And he was spot-on, sadly, in warning we were “overdue” for an influenza pandemic.
So, with hindsight, and knowing already a decade ago, or five years after the book, that Kunstler had a high level of alarmism even by my standards? Three stars.
View all my reviews
==
Going beyond Kunstler’s book?
First, I’d read a number of essays by Kunstler, a decade or so ago. He seemed alarmist enough then. He seems more alarmist now. And, a Michael Mann or Katherine Hayhoe type would call ME at least mildly alarmist.
He’s both alarmist and hypocritical today if he’s flying in a plane and driving in a car to meet fanbois in person, per a sequel book of this year, as one reviewer notes.
Second, in discussing oil in the Middle East, he had a touch of Zionism in him. Not huge, but not nothing, either.
Third, even though there were indications 15 years ago it might happen, he ignored that climate change would open up oil exploration in the Arctic. Now, especially in the Russian Arctic, how MUCH oil is up there remains unknown, as does the issue of its depth, ease of extraction, etc.
But, if the Arctic of 10 years from now is as relatively calm overall as the North Sea of 20 years ago, and we know the available oil is definitely more than a nothingburger, it will be extracted.
Kunstler (and others) arguably could be faulted for ignoring what fracking would do, as fracking to expand and recomplete oil wells in conventional plays was already happening in 2005. For the first weekly newspaper where I was an editor, as part of a story, I was out on such a frack job back in 1998.
It’s sad that places like The Oil Drum went away. It’s sad in part because by simply disappearing, they gave their critics too much ammo. And, in retreating, they left nobody to defend parallel ideas like Peak Copper.
As for me? Of course, there will be a peak in obtainable oil. Beyond the increasing financial costs, the environmental costs will go up.
(And, I’ve already run into one 2005 Peak Oil cultist in his Goodreads review. When I pointed out he was wrong, he pointed to some story and chart which showed oil peaking now. Ignoring the issue of whether or not that’s a demand driven short-term peak rather than a permanent production peak, I pointed out that 2020 isn’t 2005.)Peak Oilers aren’t Seth Rich conspiracy theorists. But, they do need to do better thinking, including better engagement with the facts on the ground.
I wound up blocking said reviewer of Kunstler’s book on Goodreads. He claimed that Peak Oil happened in 2005. When I said no it didn’t, he then quoted an author of some other book, not from the book, but it seems from an email he sent to him, saying that “conventional oil” appeared to have peaked in 2005, but conventional PLUS non-conventional continued to rise.
The author, in reviewing Kunstler, never said “Peak Conventional Oil,” as the screengrab above notes. Kunstler himself discussed Canadian tar sands, Venezuelan dirty oil, etc. Plus, Matt Simmons and all the Peak Oilers talked about oil, period. I said he and the quoted author were guilty of intellectual dishonesty, in my third comment on his review, then blocked him. Greenpeace and others do the same. (Its linked Bloomberg piece is wrong; Ghawar has been producing 3.58 mbbl/day for some time; this isn’t something new and “less than expected.”) It also doesn’t matter if US banks won’t finance more Arctic drilling as long as Russia has cashflow (or gets it from China).
It’s barely possible that we hit a peak in profitable global oil in 2005, but highly unlikely. International oil experts are agreed on Saudi and Russian oil production overhead, and that it’s much lower than US overhead. Even if a water cut in Ghawar is growing, Saudi costs surely still aren’t higher than Russian ones, which remain below fracked US ones. As for that field? It has peaked, and the water cut has increased somewhat, but the Saudis are also injecting CO2. It’s not quite dead yet.
Big picture? This is yet another issue with a lot of simplistic twosiderism.
==
Note to Bloomsberg’s Peak Oil liars and scammers: Peak Oil Demand is not the same as Peak Oil, so the header of the piece is a liar. Second, a decade or more from now for Peak Oil Demand is NOT “suddenly upon us.”
66 Comments on "Peak James Kunstler?"
Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 5th Dec 2020 4:00 am
“Trump is about to gas all Chinese in Amerikkka soon”
Put down that opium pipe, will ya.
zero juan on Sat, 5th Dec 2020 4:07 am
JuanPpeee’s chink sock
bochen787 said Trump is about to gas all Chinese in Amerikkka soo…
bochen787 said England, China wants you to pay for the Opium war…
bochen787 said The world loves you so ver much China!
JuanP said Stop it DrDumbass, China is destroying the planet…
zero juan on Sat, 5th Dec 2020 5:39 am
Wow, the board is so pleasn’t without JuanPpeee spam. Maybe he is gone for good!
duncan donuts on Sat, 5th Dec 2020 9:37 am
“Election Fraud Is Treason: Retired US General”
https://www.theepochtimes.com/election-fraud-is-treason-retired-us-general_3605272.html
“Former Lieutenant General Thomas McInerney has come out on the record alleging that treason against the nation is taking place amid the presidential election. He says the attempt to steal the election from President Donald Trump is the largest cyber-warfare activity in the world. McInerney says there are two groups involved: the foreign states of China, Russia, and Iran; and select U.S. citizens. “This is six to 10 states bonding together to manipulate their data to take control of the U.S. government and the Chief Executive Officer, the commander in chief. So this is not anything to be taken lightly,” the retired three-star U.S. Air Force lieutenant general said during an interview with NTD. “It’s not dirty politics, or tricks. It is treason, by the very nature against the United States government and the people of America.”… General McInerney outlines a five-fold plan for tackling what he calls a national emergency. “Initiate the insurrection act. Declare martial law. Suspend habeas corpus and set up military tribunals. Those are the things that must be done in this emergency. It is a national emergency of whether we’re going to continue forward as a democratic republic, or go into a totalitarian society,” he said. His plan starts with the president declaring a national emergency, per Trump’s 2018 executive order on foreign interference with the election. McInerney then suggests implementing the insurrection act to quell potential riots by Antifa and Black Lives Matter, whom he said will want to create chaos if Trump wins. The next steps would be to declare martial law, suspend habeas corpus, and set up military tribunals to arrest and try those who allegedly participated in the steal—people he says he has identified but cannot disclose. He said the problem must be solved now or never. “If we don’t solve it now, it’ll never be solved,” he said. “Because we will move into a tyrannical situation that will eventually be—whether you can call it social democrats, or communist—it’s going to be both the same. It’s just a different name.” The lieutenant general said that vote-switching applications “Hammer” and “Scorecard” were used in the 2020 general election as well as in the 2016 general election. He said that Dominion Voting Systems’ central server farm was moved to Frankfurt, Germany, where rogue elements of the CIA had it. U.S. special forces then seized it, and the White House has confirmed that the United States has possession of them, McInerney said. He says he does not know whether or not there were casualties during the seizure.”
Duncan Idaho on Sat, 5th Dec 2020 9:54 am
Pastor of California Megachurch That Defied Lockdown Order Dies of COVID-19
( the less fit being removed from the gene pool)
https://www.thedailybeast.com/pastor-of-water-of-life-community-church-which-defied-californias-lockdown-order-dies-of-covid-19?ref=home
Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 5th Dec 2020 10:55 am
“Former Lieutenant General Thomas McInerney has come out on the record alleging that treason against the nation is taking place amid the presidential election.”
Wrong, it is treason against white America, a subtle difference. The old republic is gone for ever:
https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2018/05/21/european-america-is-over/
split.her.up.
FamousDrScanlon on Sat, 5th Dec 2020 1:24 pm
clog, you are not part of ‘white America’. Never lived there, so all you know about it is what infowarz & other conspiracy tards tell you.
What about White American liberals?
I say white America is a scared, insecure little boys fantasy.
Unlike you, I’ve lived, worked, married, ran 2 businesses, & paid taxes in America & there’s no White American or black America.
In fact, the only colour that matters in America is green. As in greenbacks.
I’ve briefly been to an all black, rich cunts, gated community (delivering legal documents), with private cops (stopped me) in Atlanta.
Many of them work Big Corp downtown & have 1st level name reserved parking spaces for their 80k cars.
You know what they call the poor blacks who live in the section 8 housing projects? Niggers & ghetto trash. Poor lowly educated whites are white trash or trailer trash to them.
It’s a class war. For Rich whites, like Trump, all middle class & lower whites are white niggers & always will be. Dupes & means to an end.
You know that piece of shit American politico David Duke? He’s the real deal – a cunt, but not a phony. Unlike Trump he’s been consistent. Trump never ‘acted’ the xenophobe, racist & white champion until it suited his personal agenda. He’s identified as a democrat & chilled with the Clintons.
Whatever benefits Trump at the moment. None of this is a secret, y’all just chose to ignore/deny it because it crushes your super daddy white saviour narrative.
If it suits his purpose, Trump & every other elite will sell you out to wet-backs for moar Greenbacks.
” Perhaps no presidential candidate has the self-confidence he does, even in the face of some glaring flip-flops on his political positions. Where lesser candidates would dodge questions about why they’ve changed their mind or give a focus-group-tested line about how they evolved, Trump doesn’t admit to ever having a different opinion.
He loved Hillary Clinton; now he thinks she’s the worst. He was very much in favor of abortion rights before he opposed them. And he might be running as a Republican today, but he was once a registered Democrat who called for legalizing drugs, a massive one-time 14.25 percent tax on the wealthy and staying out of wars that didn’t present a “direct threat” to the U.S. In many ways, he’s been to the left of Clinton and even Bernie Sanders on some issues.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/07/12/the-massive-flip-floppery-of-donald-trump-explained-in-238-seconds/
Political positions of Donald Trump
“Self-described
Trump registered as a Republican in Manhattan in 1987 and since that time has changed his party affiliation five times. In 1999, Trump changed his party affiliation to the Independence Party of New York. In August 2001, Trump changed his party affiliation to Democratic. In September 2009, Trump changed his party affiliation back to the Republican Party. In December 2011, Trump changed to “no party affiliation” (independent). In April 2012, Trump again returned to the Republican Party.[4]
In a 2004 interview, Trump told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer: “In many cases, I probably identify more as Democrat”, explaining: “It just seems that the economy does better under the Democrats than the Republicans.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_Donald_Trump
bochen787 on Sat, 5th Dec 2020 1:50 pm
We still love smoking opium in China, heck we are so polluted and miserable it helps us through the day. Compensation for not being able to see the sky I guess.
I’m just off to buy some pangolins in my local wet market.
FamousDrScanlon on Sat, 5th Dec 2020 1:54 pm
clog, when your American buddies talk about saving ‘white culture’ they are not talking about preserving the best of white culture as you or I understand it.
They want to preserve mass consumerism (Walmart & McDonald’s) internet porn, monster-truck rallies & retard American patriotic movies with the word ‘sniper’ somewhere in the title.
They don’t give a shit about the Western Canon because they don’t know what it is, nor do they read, listen to music older than themselves, visit museums or appreciate architecture.
They are mostly anti intellectuals & proud of their ignorance who will have massive Western Canon book burnings (to compliment coal rolling) if they get the power.
Sorry clog, but they hate & fear the white culture you’re talking about.
Western canon
“The Western canon is the body of high culture literature, music, philosophy, and works of art that is highly valued in the West: works that have achieved the status of classics. However, not all these works originate in the Western world, and such works are also valued throughout the world. It is “a certain Western intellectual tradition that goes from, say, Socrates to Wittgenstein in philosophy, and from Homer to James Joyce in literature”.[2] The word canon is derived from ancient Greek κανών, kanṓn, meaning a measuring rod, or standard. The Bible, a product of ancient Jewish culture, from the Levant, in Western Asia, has been a major force in shaping Western culture, and “has inspired some of the great monuments of human thought, literature, and art”.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_canon
They’ll throw gasoline & a match on a pile of Vermeer paintings, roast marshmallows & hot dogs & laugh.
FamousDrScanlon on Sat, 5th Dec 2020 2:09 pm
bochen787, the Chinese say – ‘we have plenty of cheap Fentanyl for you round-eye’
‘Fentanyl make problems go away forever – cheap cheap’
Understanding the role of despair in America’s opioid crisis
“The U.S. boasts more opioids per capita than any other country in the world. These “deaths of despair” are most prevalent in the American heartland, in places where manufacturing and other blue-collar jobs have disappeared.”
https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/how-can-policy-address-the-opioid-crisis-and-despair-in-america/
Racist round-eye can’t compete no more ha ha.
We give round-eye more fentanyl ha ha.
Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 5th Dec 2020 2:15 pm
Some good advice from Russia:
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/508735-divorce-us-divided-red-blue/
“Time for a divorce? The US is so bitterly divided between red & blue factions that some want it to split into two nations“
bochen787 on Sat, 5th Dec 2020 3:32 pm
Here we go again… you guys ready for another year of lockdowns? This new strain is not stoppable by any of the current vaccines
https://www.euronews.com/2020/11/24/polish-scientists-identify-first-cases-of-covid-19-at-a-mink-farm
Duncan Idaho on Sat, 5th Dec 2020 3:48 pm
How can anyone deal with a party so corrupt?
https://digbysblog.net/2020/12/how-can-anyone-deal-with-a-party-so-corrupt/
While not the brightest porch lights on the block, at least they excel at being corrupt.
Cloggie on Sun, 6th Dec 2020 3:06 am
“Past & Future of Dutch Energy Production”
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2020/12/06/past-future-of-dutch-energy-production/
The total offshore wind potential of the Dutch sector of the North Sea is 161 GW. That is half of the current electricity consumption of the entire EU!
The Danes have similar potential.
Absolutely nobody is going to miss North Sea oil and gas. We are going to drown in renewable energy.
Worrying about peak oil is for ***.
Abraham van Helsing on Sun, 6th Dec 2020 3:13 am
Here we go again… you guys ready for another year of lockdowns? This new strain is not stoppable by any of the current vaccines
https://www.euronews.com/2020/11/24/polish-scientists-identify-first-cases-of-covid-19-at-a-mink-farm
Vaccines are for suckers. Now is the time to defend yourself in a totally different manner:
– radically lower your weight until you have achieved a bmi of 21.0. Stop eating! One meal per day is enough for an office dweller. Practice the keto diet.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Diet-Whisperer-Secrets-Permanent-Weight-Loss/dp/B08DSS7Z7T/ref=sr_1_1
– increase the strength of your immune system by regularly getting out of your comfort zone. Get tough! Go to the gym every day and practice bodybuilding.
– Practice cold showering every day:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Wim-Hof-Method-Potential-Transcend/dp/1846046297/ref=sr_1_1
“The Wim Hof Method: Activate Your Potential, Transcend Your Limits”
In short, become a neo-Roman.
Abraham van Helsing on Sun, 6th Dec 2020 3:43 am
Almost there, the end of the post-1945 West:
“Last ‘throw of the dice’ for Brexit pact: Talks resume in Brussels as Cabinet ‘backs no deal’ – with Boris ready to tell UK public he is pulling the plug after hour-long phone call with EU chief failed to settle ‘significant’ differences'”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9022893/Last-throw-dice-Brexit-pact-talks-resume-Brussels.html
No deal Brexit and Nord Stream 2 will allow us to escape from ZOG.
“Racist” Russia and China, here we come, to create a new world post US-hegemony!
The European Pentagon is ready to swap Anglos for Russians:
https://parisberlinmoscow.wordpress.com/2020/10/27/eu-army-hq-brussels/