Peak banana

Back when economist Alfred Kahn worked for the Carter administration he suggested that the high inflation of that period could end in a recession or even a depression.

The administration moved immediately to distance itself from Kahn’s words and admonished him for his bluntness. He promised he would not use the words in public again.


Instead, Kahn, known for his cheeky sense of humor, began telling audiences that because he had been prohibited from using the words “recession” or “depression,” he would substitute the word “banana” in their place.

When a banana company complained, he started using “kumquat” figuring that the kumquat lobby was too small to complain.

Of late we have been getting a similar (but less amusing) displacement of words from officials in the oil industry regarding the idea of peak oil. Very few are willing even to utter the words “peak oil,” and when they do, they insist that the world is not near peak as construed by a misguided peak oil movement. Instead, they substitute words such as “plateau.” A Chevron vice president has used that word to describe our oil future. And, it is fitting that he used the word at a Cambridge Energy Research Associates-sponsored confab since CERA was the first to coin the phrase. CERA, however, believes a plateau–which they further qualify as an “undulating plateau”–won’t occur until the 2030s and then will go on for 20 to 30 years. Any constraints before then, they say, will be due to “above-ground factors.”

Energy Bulletin