Page added on August 4, 2007
The real issue is not whether “our oil is under their sand,” but the fact supplies of oil and gas worldwide are nearly at the point where they will no longer be able to easily meet demand. The shorthand term for this reality is “peak oil,” or “peak fossil fuels.”
At a press briefing last week, members of the Congressional Peak Oil Caucus criticized a recent report from the National Petroleum Council (NPC) for obscuring the truth about peak oil. Tom Udall (D-New Mexico) accused the NPC of fostering “a false sense of complacency” about oil supplies. He contrasted the NPC report with one from the International Energy Agency that was released at about the same time. That report, Udall said, sounded a “clarion call” and “said what needs to be said, that we’re probably going to peak in the next couple of years. This could cause some very severe economic consequences and the world needs to start organizing and dealing with this.”
Representative Bartlett (R-Maryland), another member of the Peak Oil Caucus, said the facts were buried in the NPC report if you knew where to look. He said graphs in the report showed world oil production has been flat for the last 30 months while, at the same time, the price has gone up from $40 to $75 a barrel.
But because the American public is not aware of the imminent peak, there is little pressure on Congress to take bold action on energy. That is why auto-industry champion Representative Dingell (D-Michigan) has gotten away with knocking auto fuel-efficiency standards clean off the table. House leaders won’t even consider proposals to raise mileage standards in this bill – the debates would eat up all the time they have left before the August recess. Instead, they may try to bring the issue back up in global-warming legislation this fall.
Some day soon, despite all the soothing words of the NPC, America will wake up to the reality of peak oil. Here is how the International Energy Agency describes the threat in their most recent report: “Despite four years of high oil prices, this report sees increasing market tightness beyond 2010, with OPEC spare capacity declining to minimal levels by 2012.”
We have about four years to redesign our energy infrastructure. Congress could take a first step this week, by approving a national renewable portfolio standard. It might be time to give your snoozing representative a wake up call.
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