Our Panarchic Future

A theory that explains the evolution of ecosystems may apply to civilizations as well-and it says we’re approaching a critical phase.

Panarchy theory had its origins in Holling’s meticulous observation of the ecology of forests. He noticed that healthy forests all have an adaptive cycle of growth, collapse, regeneration, and again growth.


Over time as the forest matures and passes into the late part of its growth phase, the mechanisms of self-regulation become highly diverse and finely tuned.

…This growth phase can’t go on indefinitely. Holling implies-very much as Tainter argues in his theory-that the forest’s ever-greater connectedness and efficiency eventually produce dim