Our First Peak Oil Recession

Several presenters at the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) conference two weeks ago used measures of GDP to express the economy’s tolerance limit for high oil prices.

In essence, OECD countries are simply getting squeezed out of the market as the global drivers of demand shift to the developing world. When the cost of filling the tank on an SUV goes from $60 to $100, it really takes a bite out of consumption in America. But your average resident of, say, India or the Philippines can shrug off a 50-cent increase in the cost of filling the tank on his scooter, because he gets so much more economic value from the transportation.
Kopits believes that $70 oil is enough to effectively lock out the EU from the oil market, and $75 locks out the U.S. This begins to explain how, as independent oil producer Jeffrey Brown observed in his presentation, the U.S. was outbid by Kenya for oil last year.

On a related note, ASPO analyst Dave Cohen made a convincing argument that economic fundamentals will not support increased oil demand — even from China — for years to come, ensuring that global GDP growth remains weak.

In counterpoint, Matthew Simmons asserted that we don’t yet know the economy’s tolerance point, and thought it could be as high as $500-$700 a barrel.

This is where I must make my departure from Simmons’ camp. The data presented on GDP and price at the conference have forced me to reconsider my longstanding belief that peak oil will bring much higher prices. Although prices 5 to 10 years from now, when we’re well past the peak and into decline, remain an open question. . . I now doubt that we’ll see oil over $150 anytime soon.

Green Chip Stocks