Oil prices and exploration cycle may have ended

In 1956, with gasoline selling for 30 cents a gallon, an obscure geophysicist named M. King Hubbert predicted that U.S. energy production would peak in the late 1960s. Hubbert almost nailed it. The actual peak turned out to be 1971.

Shortly thereafter, energy prices embarked on the first leg of a sporadically upward journey that is still menacing industrialized economies today.

In 2003, an equally obscure geology professor named Kenneth Deffeyes predicted that world energy production would crest in late 2005, or about five years earlier than Hubbert had forecasted a half-century ago. Deffeyes once worked with Hubbert and based his prediction on similar methodology.

While it is doubtful that Deffeyes’ crystal ball is precise, the general implications for what’s known as the theory of “peak oil” are still worth noting.

Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel