'Oil Peaked Last Year'

Marshall Adkins is the Houston-based Managing Director of Energy Research for Raymond James & Associates, a full-service investment firm. ASPO-USA’s Steve Andrews caught up with him last week to follow up on his pivotal May 4, 2009 “Energy Stat of the Week”–Peak Oil in the Rearview Mirror: Why We Think Global Oil Production Peaked Over a Year Ago.”

Andrews: At our conference in Houston in October 2007, you responded to our question “when will world oil peak” by saying “between now and 2012.” Clearly you saw this coming. So it appears to have happened.

Adkins: It’s still a tad early to be certain, but if you include natural gas liquids–and some people will argue that that’s not crude–our numbers show that the peak was in 2008.

Q: What was the internal reaction within Raymond James to that Energy Stat on peak oil?

Adkins: Not much. Part of our long-term theme has been that it will be very difficult to increase supply at all. Most of our people have been plugged into the fact that we’re going to be in an oil-supply-constrained world for a long time.

Q: Any calls from the mainstream media?

Adkins:No. They’re really not paying attention to this. Those calls will come when gasoline is up to $4 a gallon and they’re pointing at the “evil oil empire,” even though it might be something like the cap & trade legislation that could be the cause of the price increase.

Q: Among the major players in the investment community, to date many have lagged behind you in stepping out and making as clear a statement as you have. Any thoughts there?

Adkins:Everyone in the industry knows it. I think a lot of analysts are reticent to call a spade a spade. At one end of the spectrum you have Matt Simmons who is very vocal and very up front. At the other end of the spectrum the people understand it but aren’t making a big deal out of it.

Energy Bulletin