Oil May Hit $200 as Refiners Buy Costlier Crude, Verleger Says

(Bloomberg) — Crude oil may rise to $200 a barrel by the end of the year as refiners increase purchases of low- sulfur oil to make diesel fuel, economist Philip Verleger said.

Ultra-low-sulfur diesel powers most U.S. trucks and diesel- burning cars. To make the fuel, refiners are buying more-costly low-sulfur oils such as the West Texas Intermediate crude traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, said Verleger, president of PKVerleger LLC, in an interview.


“It’s conceivable” oil could rise to $200 a barrel by the end of the year, he said. If economic “growth resumes, we are short diesel and no way we are going to fill the gap.”

Lower-sulfur crude is easier to refine into ultra-low-sulfur diesel than heavier, higher-sulfur oils, said Verleger, who, in 2005, predicted oil would rise to $100 a barrel. The diesel was introduced to the U.S. in 2006 to cut air pollution.

Converting higher-sulfur crude into diesel requires hydrogen, which is in short supply, Verleger said. The element is a byproduct from making gasoline. Refiners are making less of the motor fuel than in the past because of increased ethanol use, and therefore less hydrogen, Verleger said.

Bloomberg