NZ: Harsh reality hits optimism on renewable energy target

Renewable energy sources will have to produce nearly twice as much electricity as they do now if the government’s target of 90 per cent renewables is to be met by 2025.

Despite enthusiasm from some industry participants, others are sceptical that such a goal can be met.
Renewables will have to increase capacity by 87 per cent to 9000MW, if lights are not to go out at peak demand times. The major contributor by far now is hydro, but no one expects real growth in hydro capacity outside boutique additions.

Windpower now contributes about 2 per cent (or around 200MW) of national electricity needs, and may be limited to contributing no more than 20 per cent (or 2000MW in 2025) of total demand because of its intermittent nature. And that will leave a huge gap to be filled by geothermal, along with tidal, wavepower, solar and whatever other renewable sources emerge in the next 18 years.

“Right now you’d have to say that looks a pretty impossible equation,” said one industry participant.

Stuff