Not Just a Spike

Over the next five years, crude prices will almost
double, averaging close to $77/bbl and reaching as
much as $100/bbl by 2010. That’s over twice the
previous 6-year high (1980-1985) following the second
OPEC oil shock, when crude, in today’s dollars,
averaged the equivalent of $65/bbl. Tomorrow’s price
hikes won’t be triggered by sudden supply disruptions
like the Arab oil boycott of 1973 or the Iranian
Revolution in 1979. Instead, they will follow from the
inevitable collision between surging global crude
demand and accelerating depletion of conventional
crude supply. By 2010, prices will have to take out
nearly 9 million barrels a day from world oil
consumption—no mean feat for a world that has
never been more thirsty for oil.

CIBC World Markets(PDF file – requires Adobe Reader)